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Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
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Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningАвтор: Nickerson R. Аннотация: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
Язык: Рубрика: Психология /Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц ed2k: ed2k stats Год издания: 2004Количество страниц: 536Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008Операции: Положить на полку |
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Stern, G. 173 454 Stern, H. 142 269 454 Stern, L.D. 87 459 Sternberg, R.J. 136 334 478 482 Stevens, P.K. 102 482 Stewart, L. 208 235 482 Stigler, S.M. 15 482 Stirling's approximation 193 Stochastic processes 260—263 Stolwijk, J.A.J. 313 456 Stove, D.C. 19 482 Strategy, difficulty in convincing people to use optimal 293—296 Streaky performance 74—79 Strecker, A. 92 482 Structure, discovery of 62—70 427 Subjective expected utility theory 222 Subjective probability 24 30 31 34 35—37 387—388 Subjective probability vs. objective 31 Subjective probability, application to single events 324 Subjective probability, Bayes's rule and 119—120 Substantive goodness 414—415 Substantive null hypothesis 266—267 Sugden, R. 366 467 Summa de Arithmetic, Geometria et Proportionalita (Paccioli) 3 Summers, D.A. 295 458 Sundstrom, E. 297 482 Sutherland, H.J. 364 466 Svenson, O. 308 482 Sverson, O. 305 453 Swensson, R.G. 284 442 Swets, J.A. 272 274 280 457 483 Swijtink, Z. 2 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 455 Switzer, F.S. 321 482 Symbolic utility 220 Szekely, G.J. 182 483 Tabachnik, N. 332 337 338 439 Take the Best heuristic 384 Tan, L 431 487 Tanner, W.P. 483 Tanner, W.P., Jr. 272 280 483 Task perception, uncertainty regarding 424—425 Tautological probability 24 Taxicab problem 122—132 374—375 407 Taylor, J. 93 483 Taylor, J.H. 286 462 Taylor, S.E. 372 483 Teigen, K.H. 291 387 483 Temporal uncertainty 81 Terpening, W. 284 475 Tertile estimation procedure 329—330 Testing, for randomness 60—70.See also Hypothesis testing Tetlock, P.E. 322 483 Thagard, P.R. 416 460 Thaler, R. 387 388 389 483 Thaler, R.H. 223 445 462 Theorems, probability functions 29 Theorie Analytique des Probabilites (Laplace) 14 Theory of bounded rationality 369 Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (von Neumann & Morgensterns) 358 Thermodynamics, second law of 42—43 Thibaut, J. 412 485 Third Harbor Tunnel project 287—288 Thomas, L. 47 483 Thompson, B. 250 483 Thompson, C.P. 58 483 Three cards problem 157—160 Tibsnirani, R. 364 466 Tiemann, A.R. 313 456 Till, J.E. 364 466 Time magazine 83 Time, estimating 287—291 Tipler, F.J. 101 103 441 Tippett, L.C. 37 483 Tit-for-tat strategy, in prisoner's dilemma 217—218 Toda, M. 387 391 483 Todd, P.M. 155 382 394 397 443 448 455 483 Todhunter, L. 3 11 12 13 14 15 22 109 180 183 233 311 431 432 483 Tooby, J. 407 447 Tools-to-theories transactions 280 Toulmin, S.E. 17 21 24 484 Trade-offs, decision making and 358 Tragedy of the commons 225—226 227 Transactions 233 Transfer-of-inference problem 205 Treize 13 Triangles, wave phenomena and 99 Trivers, R.L. 217 484 Trolier, T.K. 339 458 Trope, Y. 400 408 455 484 Trow, W.C. 315 484 Trybula, S. 208 482 Tsal, Y. 352 484 Tucker, D. 333 334 479 Tukey, J.W. 250 251 484 Tune, G.S. 44 299 484 Turner, J.R. 268 484 Turner, T.R. 82 484 Tuten, J.T 150 151 461 Tversky, A. 24 25 43 44 74 75 76 78 122 123 221 257 290 299 300 301 308 310 314 318 320 327 342 343 344 346 347 348 352 357 358 364 365 366 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 379 385 387 397 405 406 407 414 415 449 450 455 457 462 463 469 479 484 Two aces and a jack problem 170—176 Two-by-two contingency tables 210 Type I error 77 249 Type II error 77 249 Type II rationality 230 Ultimatum game 222—225 Uncertainty 291—292 356 Underconfidence, artifactual contributions to 326—328 Underestimation 288—291 Underestimation of disjunctions 342—343 Underestimation of personal risk 308—309 Underestimation, motivating factors 289—290 Unidimensional variables 205—206 Uniqueness 46—48 Unmeasurable uncertainty 356 Unpredictability, randomness and 55 56 72 Urbach, P. 118 460 Uspensky, J.V. 12 18 484 Utility 357 Utility vs. value 198—199 357 365 Utility, maximization of expected 360—369 437 Utility, quantification of 362—365 Utility, rationality and subjective expected 214 Utility, symbolic 220 Vaccination, probability theory and 15 Vallone, R. 74 75 76 317 455 484 Value(s) vs. utility 198—199 357 365 Value(s), decision making and 368 369 Value(s), response to risk and 310 Value(s), social dilemmas and 227 Van de Geer, J.P. 209 210 211 212 469 van der Pligt, J. 306 484 van Wallendael, L.R. 415 484 485 Variability 232 242—244 Variability, estimates of 284—285 Variables, contingency relations between 333—337 Variables, distribution of 244—246 Variables, illusory correlation 338—341 Variables, multidimensional 206 Variables, unidimensional 205—206.See also Covariation Variance, analysis of 266 Variation, chance 33 Variation, law of genuine 242—243 Vaughn, E. 310 485 Venn, J. 119 485 Verisimilitude 22 Verplanken, B. 306 470 485 Vlek, C. 285 310 485 Vogl, R.J. 58 483 von Daniken, E. 93 485 von Mises, R. 88 119 485 von Neumann, J. 198 357 364 485 von Plato, J. 30 485 von Winterfeldt, D. 357 359 485 von Winterfeldt, D.V 321 322 388 479 Vos Savant, M. 156 485 voting 15 206—207 Wade, T.C. 320 485 Wagenaar, W.A. 44 59 60 71 72 74 299 318 395 396 441 463 466 485 Wagner, C.H. 212 485 Waldrop, R.L. 78 485 Walker, J. 224 473 Walker, L. 412 485 Wallach, M.A. 312 442 464 486 Waller, R.W. 433 486 Wallsten, T.S. 291 317 327 328 399 417 450 476 486 Walters, J. 334 464 Wandersman, A.H. 310 457 486 Wang, A.Y 286 462 War, occurrence of 251—252 Ward, K. 107 486 Ward, W.C. 333 334 336 338 461 Ward, W.D. 486 Wark, D.L. 236 467 Wasserman, E.A. 334 486 Water, coincidence and properties of 102 Watson, S.R. 357 486 Wave phenomena, triangles and 99 Wealth, utility and 198 357 Weart, S. 305 486 Weather forecasting 292 322 Weaver, C.A. 322 486 Weaver, W. 22 251 486 Wedding, D. 320 486 Weight of evidence 136—137 320 Weinstein, N.D. 297 308 314 486 487 Weinstock, M. 318 464 Weintraub, R. 182 487 Weld, H.P. 413 487 Weldon, W.F.R. 236 474 Well, A. 426 476 Wells, G.L. 291 407 487 Werner, G.M. 355 371 456 Whalley, P.C. 431 487 Wheeler, J.A. 100 487 Wheeler, M. 388 487 Whist 13 White, G.F. 283 481 White, G.R. 73 305 444 White, R.M. 306 487 Wiggins, J.S. 32487 Wigner,E.P. 91 487 Wilke, T.A. 117 454 Wilkinson, A.C. 317 455 Williams, K. 226 465 Wilson, A.E. 346 481 Wilson, D.S. 212 487 Wilson, K.P. 285 467 Wilson, R. 276 312 314 447 487 Wilson, T.D. 377 457 Wilson, W 250 487 Win-stay lose-shift strategy, in prisoner's dilemma 218 Winch, R.R 250 487 Windschitl, P.D. 291 487 Winefield, A.H. 424 487 Winkler, R.L. 212 283 322 415 417 424 471 487 Wisudha, A. 431 487 Within limits, sample size and 302 Wittgenstein, L. 26 82 487 Wolters, F.J.M. 289 466 Woo, C.Y. 309 447 Woodwell, G.M. 305 460 Worlds in Collision (Velikovsky) 90 Wright, G. 61 71 416 424 440 Wright, G.N. 414 431 475 487 Wright, J.C. 71 340 488 Wright, W.F. 309 488 Wrone, D.R. 82 488 Wyer, R.S. 342 352 425 488 Yap, E.C. 286 462 Yates, F. 317 343 477 Yates, J.F. 315 345 402 488 Yes-no situations 355—356 Zabell, S.L. 59 136 182 199 488 Zacks, R.T. 285 286 458 459 488 Zakay, D. 308 309 396 488 Zamir, S. 223 477 Zechmeister, E.B. 318 447 Ziemba, W.T. 318 459 Zipf, G.K. 238 488 Ziskin, J. 307 488 Zwick, R. 291 486
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