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Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
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Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningАвтор: Nickerson R. Аннотация: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
Язык: Рубрика: Психология /Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц ed2k: ed2k stats Год издания: 2004Количество страниц: 536Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008Операции: Положить на полку |
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200% of Nothing (Dewdney) 276 a priori probability 23 Abelson, R.P. 244 250 251 256 263 264 281 415 439 465 Abramson, L.Y. 338 396 439 470 Acceptance-support testing 77 Aces and kings problem 160—170 Actuarial statistics 246—247 Adams, J.K. 316 328 439 Adams, P.A. 316 328 439 Additive-difference model of decision making 358 Adjustment, anchoring and 375—378 390 Admissible scoring rules 391—394 Affirmation of the consequent 109—110 Ajzen, I. 337 407 408 439 Albert, A. 316 391 480 Albright, L. 426 480 Aleatory contracts 15 Aleatory probability 30 31 32 34 45 Alfidi, J. 314 439 Alicke, M.D. 289 439 Allais, M. 185 199 312 357 439 Allan, L. 338 455 Allan, L.G. 337 439 Allen, F.W. 312 439 Alloy, F.B. 439 Alloy, L.B. 332 337 338 396 439 Allwood, C.M. 321 324 440 Alpert, M. 317 440 Alpha 248—249 Altruism, development of 212 Altruism, prisoner's dilemma and 217 220 Altruism, social dilemmas and evidence of 228 Altruism, ultimatum game and 224—225 Alvarez, L.W. 89 440 Amabile, T.M. 333 336 340 461 Ambiguity in problem statements 425 Ambiguity in statistical assertions 274—279 Analysis of variance 266 anchoring 375—378 390 Anderson, J.R. 335 380 386 409 425 440 Anderson, J.T. 55 473 Anderson, N.H. 284 293 440 Andreoli, V. 412 485 annuities 15 233 Anthropic (cosmological) principle 103—108 Anthropic (cosmological) principle, strong form 105—106 Anthropic (cosmological) principle, testability of 106—108 Anthropic (cosmological) principle, weak form 104—105 Apostolakis, G. 305 440 Applicability of Bayesian reasoning 138—139 Approximate entropy 55—56 Arbuthnot, J. 240 440 Argument, statistics in service of 263—264 Argument, strength of 22 Arkes, H.R. 293 294 295 317 320 321 334 359 440 Arrow, K.J. 206 227 360 368 440 Ars Conjectandi (Bernoulli) 11 12 Articulation, in argument 264 Asher, S.J. 87 459 Assassination coincidences 82—83 Assessment, risk 292 303—304 305 313—314 331 Assimilation effect 425 Assumptions, in probability problems 156—157 161—165 169—171 173—175 Astragali 2 Astronomy 15 Attention, role played in frequency perception and retention 286—287 Attneave, F. 285 328 440 Attribution, vs. prediction 411 Availability 371—373 380 Availability, principle of 291 Average family-average child puzzle 150—151 Avinon, O. 86 457 Avis, N.E. 407 468 Axelrod, R. 217 227 440 Axiomatic theory of probability 39 Axiomatization of probability theory 33 Ayala, F.J. 47 440 Ayer, A.J. 23 30 37 440 Ayton, P. 61 71 416 424 440 Babad, E. 297 440 Baca, S. 323 373 469 Baconian probability theory 422—423 Bahrick, H.P. 388 459 Bakan, D. 248 250 441 Baker, J.D. 137 441 Baker, T.B. 320 485 Ball, W.W.R. 173 441 Bar-Hillel, M. 131 402 441 451 468 Bar-Hillel, M.A. 73 155 156 157 158 212 290 300 301 302 352 407 415 425 441 Barber, B. 236 441 Bargaining, anchoring and adjustment and 378 Baril, G.L. 250 441 Baron, J. 274 317 352 370 402 428 441 454 Barrow, J.D. 51 101 102 103 206 441 Bartecchi, C.E. 304 441 base rates 401—402 414 434 Base rates, consensus information and 411 Base rates, discounting 374—375 399 402—405 409—410 Base rates, discounting, reconciling 409—410 Base rates, personal 405 Base rates, population 405 Base rates, prior probabilities and 122—136 Base rates, relevance of 134—136 Base rates, use of 405—409 Base-rate neglect 374—375 399 402—405 409—410 Basketball, hot-hand phenomenon and 74—79 Bassette 13 Bassock, M. 401 484 Batting averages, regression to the mean and 254 Baum, A. 305 310 441 442 Bauman, L.J. 308 441 Bayes' rule 25 110—114 Bayes' rule, application of 114—117 417—418 Bayes' rule, application of, cab-color problem 122—132 Bayes' rule, application of, disease diagnosis and 132—134 Bayes' rule, conditional probabilities and 111 116—117 Bayes' rule, justifiability of 118—122 Bayes' rule, justifiability of, finding prior probabilities 119—120 Bayes' rule, justifiability of, sensitivity to prior probabilities 120—122 Bayes' rule, relevance of 134—136 Bayes' rule, weight of evidence and 136—137 Bayes, T. 109 442 Bayesian inference 265 266 269 270 Bayesian reasoning 117—118 398—414 Bayesian reasoning as normative model 413—414 Bayesian reasoning, advantages of 140—142 Bayesian reasoning, advantages of, cumulative use of evidence in hypothesis testing 142 Bayesian reasoning, advantages of, explicit problem representation 141 Bayesian reasoning, advantages of, insensitivity to initial probabilities 141 Bayesian reasoning, base rates and 401—409 Bayesian reasoning, consensus information 410—412 Bayesian reasoning, conservatism in probabilistic judgments 399—401 Bayesian reasoning, decision making and 117—118 360 Bayesian reasoning, information presentation in frequency terms and 413—414 Bayesian reasoning, limitations of 137—140 Bayesian reasoning, limitations of, conditions of applicability 138—139 Bayesian reasoning, limitations of, extra-Bayesian requirements 139—140 Bayesian reasoning, overconfidence and 322—323 Bayesian reasoning, primacy effects and 412—413 Bayesian reasoning, reconciling conservatism and base-rate discounting in 409—410 Beach, L.R. 284 285 301 333 334 336 340 342 347 361 399 402 407 408 417 442 446 474 Beatty, J. 2 13 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 442 455 Beck, D.E. 306 446 Becker, G.M. 367 442 Behavioral patterns, correlation and 339—341 Belief functions 25 Belief-revision tool 399 434 Bell, E.T. 9 442 Bell, P.A. 305 442 Beltrami, E. 59 442 Bem,D.J. 312 442 Bennett, D.J. 2 10 60 442 Berg, J. 224 366 442 Berger, J.O. 251 359 442 Berkeley, D. 386 442 Berl, J. 358 442 Berlinski, D. 93 442 Bernoulli, D. 277 442 Bernoulli, J. 11 198 442 Bernstein, P.L. 3 12 233 243 254 304 357 442 Berretty, P.M. 384 443 Berry, D.A. 251 442 Berry, R.J. 236 443 Bertrand's paradox 199—205 Bertrand, J. 186 443 Beta 249 Betting semantics 25 Beyth-Marom, R. 118 138 291 337 401 409 443 452 Bezembinder, T.G. 362 447 Bias in estimation 286 287 Bias in sample 279 Bias, anchoring and adjustment and 378 Bias, availability and 373 Bias, Bayesian reasoning and 138 Bias, confirmation 412 437 Bias, expectations and 337 Bias, heuristics and 379 Bias, normative theory and 420 Bias, overconfidence and 324 Biased focus 333—337 Bickel, P.J. 210 443 Big Dig 287—288 Billings, R.S. 372 443 Binary rule 73 293—294 Binder, A. 77 443 Binomial distribution 242 260 Biology, statistics and 236 Biometrics 235 Biometrika 265 Birdsall, T.G. 280 483 Birnbaum, M.H. 413 443 Birthdays, chance coinciding of 87—88 Bjork, R.A. 314 461 Black, D. 206 283 443 Blackburn, S. 136 443 Blackshaw, L. 323 468 Blair, D.C 323 443 Blank, H. 406 455 Bloom, S. 290 469 Blumer.C 321 440 Blyth, C. 208 443 Blyth, C.R. 208 443 Blythe, P.W. 384 443 Boldizar, J.P. 290 469 Bolin, B. 305 443 Book of Games of Chance, The (Cardano) 96 Boorstin, D.J. 95 443 Borastein, B.H. 327 378 445 450 Borges, B. 383 443 Borgida, E. 345 402 405 406 407 410 411 428 443 444 458 470 472 Boston Globe 41 287 Bounded rationality 382 Bower, G.H. 285 308 309 408 443 453 455 488 Bowles, S. 223 459 Box, J.F. 268 443 Boyd, N.E 364 466 Boyd, R. 217 223 443 459 Bradbury, J.A. 310 443 Bradley, J.V. 396 443 Bradshaw, H. 302 371 451 Braithwaite, R.B. 328 444 Brams, S.J. 206 444 Brekke, N. 402 407 443 444 Brenner, M.W. 291 444 Brewer, J.K. 250 283 444 Bridge hand, small-probability events and 47—48 48—49 Briggs, G.E. 400 482 Brody, C.J. 310 444 Brown, R.A. 283 306 456 Brown, R.V. 283 359 444 Browne, M.W. 251 444 Brownian motion 15 Brubaker, E.R. 227 444 Bruderman, M. 309 396 444 Brun, W. 387 483 Bryant, D.S. 322 486 Buchanan, J.M. 363 444 Buckle, H.T. 27 239 444 Budescu, D. 73 441 Budescu, D.V. 283 291 309 317 327 328 395 396 417 444 450 453 476 486 Buede, D.M. 357 486 Buehler, R. 289 290 405 444 471 Buffon, G.L.L. 186 444 Bullock, S. 355 371 456 Bunge.M. 119 361 444 Burke, J.G. 307 444 Burnham, D.W. 81 472 Burns, K.E. 322 486 Burton, I. 73 305 444 Busemeyer, J.R. 285 444 Bushyhead, J.B. 317 406 446 Butler, C. 95 444 Buunk, B.P. 309 396 460 Byram, S.J. 289 445 Cab-color problem 407 Cab-color problem, Bayesian analysis and 122—132 Cab-color problem, representativeness and 374—375 Cacioppo, J.T. 428 474 Calibration 315 316 317 415 Calibration, contraction bias and 328 Calibration, curves 315—316 317 Calibration, overconfidence and 321 Camburn, A. 339 452 Camerer, C. 223 338 407 445 459 Campbell, D.T. 250 487 Campos, F.T. 399 400 469 Cannon, J.T. 250 441 Cantor, N. 428 480 Card problems, aces and kings 160—170 Card problems, three cards 157—160 Card problems, two aces and a jack 170—176 Cardoze, S. 407 468 Carlin, J. 142 269 454 Carlson, B.W. 343 345 375 445 488 Carnap, R. 19 31 35 36 37 445 Carpenter, K.M. 286 457 Carroll, J.B. 295 445 Carroll, J.S. 413 464 Carsten, L.M. 466 Carter, B. 102 445 Cartwright, N. 442 Carver, R. 250 445 Case-specific information, base rates and 406—407 410 Cassells, W. 404 445 Catania, A.C 71 445 Categories, natural 374 Categories, natural-kind 408 Categorization 232 374 Causal efficacy 263—264 Causal factors, base rates and 407—408 Causal factors, chance as cover for undetermined physical 51—52 Causal factors, search for 49—50 Causal laws, Baconian probability theory and 422—423 Cause-effect assumptions, covariation and 337—338 Cause-effect relationships 84—85 86 Cause-effect relationships, illusory 341 Cavanagh, R.C. 401 462 Central limit theorem 245—246 Central tendency, estimates of 284—285 Certainty 356
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