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Nickerson R. Ч Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Nickerson R. Ч Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

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Ќазвание: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

јвтор: Nickerson R.

јннотаци€:

Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.


язык: en

–убрика: ѕсихологи€/

—татус предметного указател€: √отов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

√од издани€: 2004

 оличество страниц: 536

ƒобавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008

ќперации: ѕоложить на полку | —копировать ссылку дл€ форума | —копировать ID
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ѕредметный указатель
Outcomes, most likely      187Ч197
Outcomes, representation of      386Ч387
Outrage factors, risk and      310
Overconfidence      315Ч316 317Ч321 417 437
Overconfidence bias      324
Overconfidence, artifactual contributions to      326Ч328
Overconfidence, bases for      322Ч325
Overconfidence, reducing      321Ч322
Overestimation      288Ч289 290Ч291
Overestimation of conjunctions      342
Owen, P.W.      283 444
Owens, D.      84 86 473
p values      426Ч427
Paese, P.W.      317 321 322 473 482
Page, K.M.      224 472
Pagels, H.R.      106 473
Pais, A.      15 473
Palmer, T.C., Jr.      287 473 479
Papers of the Imperial Academy of Sciences in Petersburg      12
Parade Magazine      156
Paradoxes      181Ч215
Paradoxes of confirmation      213Ч214
Paradoxes of expectation      212Ч213
Paradoxes of lawfulness of chance      28
Paradoxes, Bertrand's      199Ч205
Paradoxes, inquisitive prisoner      181Ч182
Paradoxes, intransitivity      205Ч208
Paradoxes, of preference      212
Paradoxes, Simpson's      78 208Ч212
Paradoxes, St. Petersburg      182Ч199 364 430
Paradoxes, St. Petersburg, expected values      187Ч197
Paradoxes, St. Petersburg, most likely outcomes      187Ч197
Paradoxes, St. Petersburg, value and utility      198Ч199
Parameters      245Ч246
Parameters of dispersion      245
Parducci, A.      388 473
Pareto, V.      238 474
Parley, J.M.      309 411 448 449
Parsimony      76
Particle physics, probability and      16
Partitioning of space, testing for randomness and      62Ч67
Pascal's wager      272
Pascal-Fermat correspondence      4Ч10
Pascalian probability theory      421Ч422
Pauker, S.      387 469
Paulos, J.A.      46 47 58 85 87 187 207 232 279 284 307 317 338 394 398 419 474
Payne, S.L.      388 474
Peake, P.K.      340 377 445 470
Pearson, E.S.      268 471
Pearson, K.      236 474
Pedhazur, E.J.      250 474
Peele, E.      297 482
Peirce, C.S.      18 19 136 151 474
Penney, W.      146 474
Pennington, N.      412 413 415 459 474
Penrod, S.D.      413 459
Percentage pumping      276Ч277
Perception of frequency      285Ч287
Perception of randomness      71Ч72
Perception risk      See Risk perception
Perloff, L.S.      308 474
Permutations, vs. combinations      10
Persistence      412
Personal involvement, coincidences and      86Ч87
Personal involvement, decision making and      396Ч397
Personal involvement, probabilistic judgment and      428
Personality traits, correlation and      339Ч341
Peters, T.      355 474
Peterson, C.R.      113 283 284 285 301 321 334 336 337 347 359 388 399 400 412 427 441 442 444 448 449 459 474 482
Peterson, D.R.      340 474
Peterson, M.A.      286 462
Petty, R.E.      428 474
Pfleeger, S.L.      288 474
Pharoaon      13
Phelps, E.      334 464
Phillips, L.D.      113 118 317 318 328 399 414 415 431 450 466 474 475 487
Philosophy of science      160
Physical fortune      198
Physical magnitudes, judging      328
Physical possibility, vs. metaphysical      22
Physical probability      24 30 31 34 45
Physical sciences, probability and      15Ч16
Physical sciences, statistics and      235Ч236
Physical symmetry      22 38
Physics, coincidences with mathematics      96Ч100
Physics, determinism in      28
Physics, probability and      16
Physics, quantum mechanics      16 28 35 38Ч39 236
Physics, social      238
Physics, statistics and      235Ч236
Piaget, J.      335 336 461
Piattelli-Palmarini, M.      379 414 416 475
Pincus, S.      55 475
Pitz, G.E      284 317 329 330 388 417 475
Planetary orbits, regular polyhedra and      94Ч96
Planning fallacy      290
Platonic solids, planetary orbits and      94Ч96
Platt, J.      225 310 475
Plausibility      22Ч23
Player's dilemma      156
Pleit-Kuiper, A.      395 485
Pliner, P.      198 454
Plott, C.      366 390 457
Plus-plus cell      334Ч336
Poincare, H.      20 46 475
Poisson distribution      238 251Ч252
Poisson, S-D.      32 238 475
Polanyi, M.      139 475
Policy analysis/decisions, accuracy of estimates and      292
Policy analysis/decisions, risk assessment and      305 313Ч314
Political arithmetic      233Ч236
Politser, P.E.      138 475
Politzer, G.      346 475
Polkinghorne, J.      91 99 103 475
Polkinghorne, J.C.      103 259 475
Pollard, P.      250 285 301 404 426 451 475
Pollatsek, A.      59 426 476
polling      206Ч207
Polling framing effects      388
Polling opinion      247
Polyhedra, planetary orbits and regular      94Ч96
Popper, K.R.      380 476
Population-size intuitions      302Ч303 331
Porter, T.      2 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 455
Porter, T.M.      26 27 28 234 239 241 242 243 244 476
Posavac, S.S.      297 454
Possible      388
Posterior probabilities      117 350
Posterior probabilities, base rates and      402Ч403
Posterior probabilities, Bayes's rule and      138 140
Posterior probabilities, conservatism in estimating      400
Poulton, E.C.      328 476
Poundstone, W.      212 215 218 225 226 357 476
PPMs (probabilistic mental models)      381Ч383
Prasnikar, V.      223 477
Pratt, J.W.      198 476
Preconceived norm method      421
Predicted randomness, vs. discovered      66Ч70
Prediction      292Ч303
Prediction vs. attribution      411
Prediction, gambler's fallacy      292Ч293
Prediction, lotteries      298Ч299
Prediction, population-size intuitions      302Ч303
Prediction, preferences and      296Ч298
Prediction, probability matching analogues      293Ч296
Prediction, sample-size intuitions      299Ч302
Preference reversal      366
Preference(s), paradoxes of      212
Preference(s), prediction and      296Ч298 330
Premise conversion error      352
Press, E      309 476
Price, D.J. de S.      238 476
Primacy effects      284 412Ч413 434
Principle of equivalence      92Ч93
Principle of insufficient reason      139 186
Principle of invariance      365Ч366
Principle of maximum entropy      139
Prior probabilities      350
Prior probabilities in Bayesian reasoning      401Ч405
Prior probabilities, base rates and      122Ч136 409
Prior probabilities, cab-color problem and      122Ч132
Prior probabilities, coincidences and      86
Prior probabilities, disease diagnosis and      132Ч134
Prior probabilities, finding      119Ч120
Prior probabilities, relevance and      134Ч136
Prior probabilities, sensitivity to      120Ч122
Prisoner's dilemm as evidence of irrationality      418Ч419
Prisoner's Dilemma      215Ч221
Prisoner's dilemma, bases of erroneous probabilistic thinking      425Ч429
Prisoner's dilemma, conservatism in      399Ч401
Prisoner's dilemma, effect of education on      431Ч433
Prisoner's dilemma, quality of      414Ч430
Prisoner's dilemma, rationality and      418Ч424
Prisoner's dilemma, Reformation/Counter-Reformation and      2Ч3
Prisoner's dilemma, related problem      221Ч222
Prisoner's dilemma, uncertainty regarding task perception      424Ч425
Prisoner's dilemma, use of intuition in      429Ч430 438
Probabilistic judgment/reasoning      ixЧx 19 23Ч24 414Ч430
Probabilistic mental models (PPMs)      381Ч383
Probabilistic reasoning problems, aces and kings problem      160Ч170
Probabilistic reasoning problems, average family-average child puzzle      150Ч151
Probabilistic reasoning problems, coin toss      143Ч147 149 179Ч180
Probabilistic reasoning problems, die toss      180
Probabilistic reasoning problems, king's folly      147Ч149
Probabilistic reasoning problems, Martingale      151Ч153
Probabilistic reasoning problems, secretary selection problem      154Ч155
Probabilistic reasoning problems, sibling gender problem      155Ч157
Probabilistic reasoning problems, sisters and brothers problem      176Ч179
Probabilistic reasoning problems, three card problem      157Ч160
Probabilistic reasoning problems, two aces and a jack problem      170Ч176
Probability as explanatory concept      258
Probability as state of mind      20 23
Probability calculus      436
Probability matching analogues      293Ч296
Probability vs. degree of confidence      22
Probability, aleatory      31 32
Probability, Baconian      422Ч423
Probability, Bayesian      25
Probability, conditional      See Conditional probabilities
Probability, connotations of      22Ч25
Probability, defining      17Ч30
Probability, determinism and      25Ч28
Probability, development of, de Moivre and      11Ч12
Probability, development of, deterrents to      2
Probability, development of, early theorists      10Ч14
Probability, development of, games of chance and      1Ч4
Probability, development of, Montmort and      11
Probability, development of, Pascal Ч Fermat correspondence and      4Ч10
Probability, development of, statistics and      21
Probability, education in      431Ч433 435
Probability, epistemological      31
Probability, frequentist view of      32Ч33 119Ч120
Probability, gambling sense of      22Ч23
Probability, inductive      31 35
Probability, intuition and      24 199
Probability, judgmental      34Ч35
Probability, judgments of      23Ч24 34Ч35
Probability, limit theorem of      12 13
Probability, logical      24
Probability, mathematical      22 29Ч30
Probability, objective      31
Probability, Pascalian      421Ч422
Probability, physical      24
Probability, plausibility and      22Ч23
Probability, posterior      See Posterior probabilities
Probability, practical applications      14Ч17
Probability, prior      See Prior probabilities
Probability, randomness and      80
Probability, rules and      29
Probability, statistical      22
Probability, subjective      24 31 119 387Ч388
Probability, uncertain knowledge and      37Ч39
Probability-matching experiments      363
Problem of points      9Ч10
Problem statements, ambiguity in      425
Procedure invariance      365Ч366
Processes, random      59Ч60
Production, of randomness      71Ч72
Products, random      59Ч60
Propensity      22
Propensity, semantics      25
Proper scoring rules      391Ч394
Prospect theory      311 370
Psychological experiments, design of      81
Psychology, hybrid inference and      270
Psychology, signal detection theory and experimental      272Ч273
Psychology, statistical hypothesis testing and      235
Psychology, statistical inference and      265 266 281Ч282
Public goods, social dilemmas and      225Ч228
Public health statistics      237Ч238
Public opinion, framing effects and      388
Pyramids, coincidence and      93Ч94
quantum mechanics      16 28 35 38Ч39 236
Question wording      346
Question wording, framing effects      388
Quetelet, L.A.J.      237 239 476
Radicalism      320.See also Overconfidence
Radioactive decay      15Ч16 79
Raffling      13
Ragsdale, E.E.      377 448
Raiffa, H.      139 317 357 359 440 463 467 476
Raju, N.S.      250 470
Random mass phenomena      236Ч237
Random sampling, base rates and      407
Randomness      54Ч81
Randomness vs. irregularity      41
Randomness, defining      55Ч59
Randomness, event independence and      72Ч81
Randomness, perceiving structure in      427
Randomness, perception of      71Ч72 424Ч425
Randomness, processes      59Ч60
Randomness, production of      71Ч72
Randomness, products      59Ч60
Randomness, quantitative theories of      2
Randomness, testing for      59 60Ч70
Randomness, testing for, as contingent property      61Ч66
Randomness, testing for, predicted vs. discovered randomness      66Ч70
Rapoport, A      291 486
Rapoport, Am.      217 218 395 399 476
Rasmusen, E.      218 459
Rathje, W.L.      277 476
Rational choice models      360Ч361
Rational dilemma      228Ч230
Rationality      199
Rationality of decision making behavior      363Ч364 367Ч368
Rationality, bounded      382
Rationality, social dilemmas and      227
Rationality, statistical rule and      419Ч424
Rationality, subjective expected utility and      214
Rationality, theory of bounded      369
Rationality, use of heuristics and      379
Rationality, use of superficial strategies and      428Ч429
Raye, C.L.      286 462
Reality, meaning of mathematical description of      99Ч100
Reason, principle of insufficient      139
Reasonableness      199
Reasoning, circle of      39
Reasoning, passive approach to      427Ч428
Reasoning, probabilistic      See Probabilistic judgment/reasoning
Recency effects      284
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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