Àâòîðèçàöèÿ
Ïîèñê ïî óêàçàòåëÿì
Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Îáñóäèòå êíèãó íà íàó÷íîì ôîðóìå Íàøëè îïå÷àòêó?
Íàçâàíèå: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningÀâòîð: Nickerson R. Àííîòàöèÿ: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
ßçûê: Ðóáðèêà: Ïñèõîëîãèÿ /Ñòàòóñ ïðåäìåòíîãî óêàçàòåëÿ: Ãîòîâ óêàçàòåëü ñ íîìåðàìè ñòðàíèö ed2k: ed2k stats Ãîä èçäàíèÿ: 2004Êîëè÷åñòâî ñòðàíèö: 536Äîáàâëåíà â êàòàëîã: 27.05.2008Îïåðàöèè: Ïîëîæèòü íà ïîëêó |
Ñêîïèðîâàòü ññûëêó äëÿ ôîðóìà | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ID
Ïðåäìåòíûé óêàçàòåëü
Outcomes, most likely 187—197 Outcomes, representation of 386—387 Outrage factors, risk and 310 Overconfidence 315—316 317—321 417 437 Overconfidence bias 324 Overconfidence, artifactual contributions to 326—328 Overconfidence, bases for 322—325 Overconfidence, reducing 321—322 Overestimation 288—289 290—291 Overestimation of conjunctions 342 Owen, P.W. 283 444 Owens, D. 84 86 473 p values 426—427 Paese, P.W. 317 321 322 473 482 Page, K.M. 224 472 Pagels, H.R. 106 473 Pais, A. 15 473 Palmer, T.C., Jr. 287 473 479 Papers of the Imperial Academy of Sciences in Petersburg 12 Parade Magazine 156 Paradoxes 181—215 Paradoxes of confirmation 213—214 Paradoxes of expectation 212—213 Paradoxes of lawfulness of chance 28 Paradoxes, Bertrand's 199—205 Paradoxes, inquisitive prisoner 181—182 Paradoxes, intransitivity 205—208 Paradoxes, of preference 212 Paradoxes, Simpson's 78 208—212 Paradoxes, St. Petersburg 182—199 364 430 Paradoxes, St. Petersburg, expected values 187—197 Paradoxes, St. Petersburg, most likely outcomes 187—197 Paradoxes, St. Petersburg, value and utility 198—199 Parameters 245—246 Parameters of dispersion 245 Parducci, A. 388 473 Pareto, V. 238 474 Parley, J.M. 309 411 448 449 Parsimony 76 Particle physics, probability and 16 Partitioning of space, testing for randomness and 62—67 Pascal's wager 272 Pascal-Fermat correspondence 4—10 Pascalian probability theory 421—422 Pauker, S. 387 469 Paulos, J.A. 46 47 58 85 87 187 207 232 279 284 307 317 338 394 398 419 474 Payne, S.L. 388 474 Peake, P.K. 340 377 445 470 Pearson, E.S. 268 471 Pearson, K. 236 474 Pedhazur, E.J. 250 474 Peele, E. 297 482 Peirce, C.S. 18 19 136 151 474 Penney, W. 146 474 Pennington, N. 412 413 415 459 474 Penrod, S.D. 413 459 Percentage pumping 276—277 Perception of frequency 285—287 Perception of randomness 71—72 Perception risk See Risk perception Perloff, L.S. 308 474 Permutations, vs. combinations 10 Persistence 412 Personal involvement, coincidences and 86—87 Personal involvement, decision making and 396—397 Personal involvement, probabilistic judgment and 428 Personality traits, correlation and 339—341 Peters, T. 355 474 Peterson, C.R. 113 283 284 285 301 321 334 336 337 347 359 388 399 400 412 427 441 442 444 448 449 459 474 482 Peterson, D.R. 340 474 Peterson, M.A. 286 462 Petty, R.E. 428 474 Pfleeger, S.L. 288 474 Pharoaon 13 Phelps, E. 334 464 Phillips, L.D. 113 118 317 318 328 399 414 415 431 450 466 474 475 487 Philosophy of science 160 Physical fortune 198 Physical magnitudes, judging 328 Physical possibility, vs. metaphysical 22 Physical probability 24 30 31 34 45 Physical sciences, probability and 15—16 Physical sciences, statistics and 235—236 Physical symmetry 22 38 Physics, coincidences with mathematics 96—100 Physics, determinism in 28 Physics, probability and 16 Physics, quantum mechanics 16 28 35 38—39 236 Physics, social 238 Physics, statistics and 235—236 Piaget, J. 335 336 461 Piattelli-Palmarini, M. 379 414 416 475 Pincus, S. 55 475 Pitz, G.E 284 317 329 330 388 417 475 Planetary orbits, regular polyhedra and 94—96 Planning fallacy 290 Platonic solids, planetary orbits and 94—96 Platt, J. 225 310 475 Plausibility 22—23 Player's dilemma 156 Pleit-Kuiper, A. 395 485 Pliner, P. 198 454 Plott, C. 366 390 457 Plus-plus cell 334—336 Poincare, H. 20 46 475 Poisson distribution 238 251—252 Poisson, S-D. 32 238 475 Polanyi, M. 139 475 Policy analysis/decisions, accuracy of estimates and 292 Policy analysis/decisions, risk assessment and 305 313—314 Political arithmetic 233—236 Politser, P.E. 138 475 Politzer, G. 346 475 Polkinghorne, J. 91 99 103 475 Polkinghorne, J.C. 103 259 475 Pollard, P. 250 285 301 404 426 451 475 Pollatsek, A. 59 426 476 polling 206—207 Polling framing effects 388 Polling opinion 247 Polyhedra, planetary orbits and regular 94—96 Popper, K.R. 380 476 Population-size intuitions 302—303 331 Porter, T. 2 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 455 Porter, T.M. 26 27 28 234 239 241 242 243 244 476 Posavac, S.S. 297 454 Possible 388 Posterior probabilities 117 350 Posterior probabilities, base rates and 402—403 Posterior probabilities, Bayes's rule and 138 140 Posterior probabilities, conservatism in estimating 400 Poulton, E.C. 328 476 Poundstone, W. 212 215 218 225 226 357 476 PPMs (probabilistic mental models) 381—383 Prasnikar, V. 223 477 Pratt, J.W. 198 476 Preconceived norm method 421 Predicted randomness, vs. discovered 66—70 Prediction 292—303 Prediction vs. attribution 411 Prediction, gambler's fallacy 292—293 Prediction, lotteries 298—299 Prediction, population-size intuitions 302—303 Prediction, preferences and 296—298 Prediction, probability matching analogues 293—296 Prediction, sample-size intuitions 299—302 Preference reversal 366 Preference(s), paradoxes of 212 Preference(s), prediction and 296—298 330 Premise conversion error 352 Press, E 309 476 Price, D.J. de S. 238 476 Primacy effects 284 412—413 434 Principle of equivalence 92—93 Principle of insufficient reason 139 186 Principle of invariance 365—366 Principle of maximum entropy 139 Prior probabilities 350 Prior probabilities in Bayesian reasoning 401—405 Prior probabilities, base rates and 122—136 409 Prior probabilities, cab-color problem and 122—132 Prior probabilities, coincidences and 86 Prior probabilities, disease diagnosis and 132—134 Prior probabilities, finding 119—120 Prior probabilities, relevance and 134—136 Prior probabilities, sensitivity to 120—122 Prisoner's dilemm as evidence of irrationality 418—419 Prisoner's Dilemma 215—221 Prisoner's dilemma, bases of erroneous probabilistic thinking 425—429 Prisoner's dilemma, conservatism in 399—401 Prisoner's dilemma, effect of education on 431—433 Prisoner's dilemma, quality of 414—430 Prisoner's dilemma, rationality and 418—424 Prisoner's dilemma, Reformation/Counter-Reformation and 2—3 Prisoner's dilemma, related problem 221—222 Prisoner's dilemma, uncertainty regarding task perception 424—425 Prisoner's dilemma, use of intuition in 429—430 438 Probabilistic judgment/reasoning ix—x 19 23—24 414—430 Probabilistic mental models (PPMs) 381—383 Probabilistic reasoning problems, aces and kings problem 160—170 Probabilistic reasoning problems, average family-average child puzzle 150—151 Probabilistic reasoning problems, coin toss 143—147 149 179—180 Probabilistic reasoning problems, die toss 180 Probabilistic reasoning problems, king's folly 147—149 Probabilistic reasoning problems, Martingale 151—153 Probabilistic reasoning problems, secretary selection problem 154—155 Probabilistic reasoning problems, sibling gender problem 155—157 Probabilistic reasoning problems, sisters and brothers problem 176—179 Probabilistic reasoning problems, three card problem 157—160 Probabilistic reasoning problems, two aces and a jack problem 170—176 Probability as explanatory concept 258 Probability as state of mind 20 23 Probability calculus 436 Probability matching analogues 293—296 Probability vs. degree of confidence 22 Probability, aleatory 31 32 Probability, Baconian 422—423 Probability, Bayesian 25 Probability, conditional See Conditional probabilities Probability, connotations of 22—25 Probability, defining 17—30 Probability, determinism and 25—28 Probability, development of, de Moivre and 11—12 Probability, development of, deterrents to 2 Probability, development of, early theorists 10—14 Probability, development of, games of chance and 1—4 Probability, development of, Montmort and 11 Probability, development of, Pascal — Fermat correspondence and 4—10 Probability, development of, statistics and 21 Probability, education in 431—433 435 Probability, epistemological 31 Probability, frequentist view of 32—33 119—120 Probability, gambling sense of 22—23 Probability, inductive 31 35 Probability, intuition and 24 199 Probability, judgmental 34—35 Probability, judgments of 23—24 34—35 Probability, limit theorem of 12 13 Probability, logical 24 Probability, mathematical 22 29—30 Probability, objective 31 Probability, Pascalian 421—422 Probability, physical 24 Probability, plausibility and 22—23 Probability, posterior See Posterior probabilities Probability, practical applications 14—17 Probability, prior See Prior probabilities Probability, randomness and 80 Probability, rules and 29 Probability, statistical 22 Probability, subjective 24 31 119 387—388 Probability, uncertain knowledge and 37—39 Probability-matching experiments 363 Problem of points 9—10 Problem statements, ambiguity in 425 Procedure invariance 365—366 Processes, random 59—60 Production, of randomness 71—72 Products, random 59—60 Propensity 22 Propensity, semantics 25 Proper scoring rules 391—394 Prospect theory 311 370 Psychological experiments, design of 81 Psychology, hybrid inference and 270 Psychology, signal detection theory and experimental 272—273 Psychology, statistical hypothesis testing and 235 Psychology, statistical inference and 265 266 281—282 Public goods, social dilemmas and 225—228 Public health statistics 237—238 Public opinion, framing effects and 388 Pyramids, coincidence and 93—94 quantum mechanics 16 28 35 38—39 236 Question wording 346 Question wording, framing effects 388 Quetelet, L.A.J. 237 239 476 Radicalism 320.See also Overconfidence Radioactive decay 15—16 79 Raffling 13 Ragsdale, E.E. 377 448 Raiffa, H. 139 317 357 359 440 463 467 476 Raju, N.S. 250 470 Random mass phenomena 236—237 Random sampling, base rates and 407 Randomness 54—81 Randomness vs. irregularity 41 Randomness, defining 55—59 Randomness, event independence and 72—81 Randomness, perceiving structure in 427 Randomness, perception of 71—72 424—425 Randomness, processes 59—60 Randomness, production of 71—72 Randomness, products 59—60 Randomness, quantitative theories of 2 Randomness, testing for 59 60—70 Randomness, testing for, as contingent property 61—66 Randomness, testing for, predicted vs. discovered randomness 66—70 Rapoport, A 291 486 Rapoport, Am. 217 218 395 399 476 Rasmusen, E. 218 459 Rathje, W.L. 277 476 Rational choice models 360—361 Rational dilemma 228—230 Rationality 199 Rationality of decision making behavior 363—364 367—368 Rationality, bounded 382 Rationality, social dilemmas and 227 Rationality, statistical rule and 419—424 Rationality, subjective expected utility and 214 Rationality, theory of bounded 369 Rationality, use of heuristics and 379 Rationality, use of superficial strategies and 428—429 Raye, C.L. 286 462 Reality, meaning of mathematical description of 99—100 Reason, principle of insufficient 139 Reasonableness 199 Reasoning, circle of 39 Reasoning, passive approach to 427—428 Reasoning, probabilistic See Probabilistic judgment/reasoning Recency effects 284
Ðåêëàìà
|
|
Î ïðîåêòå