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Nickerson R. Ч Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Nickerson R. Ч Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

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Ќазвание: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

јвтор: Nickerson R.

јннотаци€:

Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.


язык: en

–убрика: ѕсихологи€/

—татус предметного указател€: √отов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

√од издани€: 2004

 оличество страниц: 536

ƒобавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008

ќперации: ѕоложить на полку | —копировать ссылку дл€ форума | —копировать ID
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ѕредметный указатель
Certainty effect      364
Cervone, D.      377 445
Chaganty, N.R.      156 470
Chaiken, S.      428 445
Chaitin, G.J.      56 445
Chammah, A.M.      217 476
Chance      436Ч437
Chance as causative agent      257 258Ч259
Chance coincidences      89Ч91
Chance devices      1Ч2
Chance variation      33
Chance vs. luck      395
Chance, defined      18
Chance, human knowledge and      20Ч21
Chance, statistical regularity and      241
Chance, theory of      3Ч4
Chance, uses of term      51Ч53
Chandler, C.C.      309 457
Chaos theory      20 26
Chapman, D.P.      387 465
Chapman, G.B.      375 378 445
Chapman, J.P.      332 337 338 445
Chapman, L.J.      332 337 338 433 445
Check lists, decision making      323
Cheng, P.W.      433 472
Chenzoff et al.      412 445
Chesnick, E.I.      290 342 343 427 446
Chess, C.      303 310 312 458
Chi-square test, randomness and      61Ч62 63 67Ч68 69
Choice      See Decision making
Choo, G.T.      431 487
Chow, S.L.      250 445 446
Christensen, C.      293 294 295 320 321 440
Christensen-Szalanski, C.M.      306 446
Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.      317 402 406 407 408 417 446
Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J.      306 446
Chromiak, W.      285 458
Chronbach, L.J.      250 446
Cialdini, R.B.      286 457
Ciampi, A.      364 466
Cicerone, R.J.      305 449
Circle of reasoning      39
Clark, E.V.      346 446
Clark, H.H.      319 346 446 481
Clark, R.D.      312 446
Clarke, R.D.      67 446
Classification, representativeness and      374
Co-occurrence      84
Cocozza, J.J.      307 482
Codable events      302
Coercion, social dilemmas and      227
Cognitive dilemma      338
Cohen, B.      312 446
Cohen, I.B.      16 446
Cohen, J.      71 250 251 279 291 398 446
Cohen, L.J.      24 35 122 125 126 130 132 133 134 135 136 290 301 303 342 343 346 347 379 401 413 421 422 423 427 429 446
Cohen, M.D.      256 447
Cohen, M.R.      208 447
coin toss      179Ч180
Coin toss, probability of sequences      143Ч147 149
Coin toss, representativeness and      374
Coin toss, St. Petersburg paradox and      182Ч185
Coin toss, stochastic processes underlying      260 261 262Ч263
Coin toss, triplet sequences      145Ч147 208
Coincidences      82Ч108
Coincidences, anthropic principle      103Ч108
Coincidences, chance      89Ч91
Coincidences, common-cause      89Ч91
Coincidences, commonness of      87Ч89
Coincidences, defining      84Ч85
Coincidences, in science      91Ч103
Coincidences, meaningfulness of      85
Coincidences, personal involvement and      86Ч87
Coincidences, small prior probability and      86
Cole, K.C.      206 218 447
Coleman, W.      265 442 447
Collaborative tasks, overestimation of own contribution to      373
Collective object      33
College selection, riskless choice models and      358
Combinations, vs. permutations      10
Combinatorial analysis      4Ч7
Combs, B.      306 447
Commitment      412
Common-cause coincidences      89Ч91
Communication, risk      303 312Ч314
Competitive behavior, prisoner's dilemma and      217 221Ч222
Complexity theory      20 26
Compound event, prediction outcome of      296
Compound-probability fallacy      343Ч349
Compressibility, randomness and      58 61
Compulsive gambling      299
Conceptual categorization      232
conditional probabilities      111 349Ч353 354
Conditional probabilities in aces and kings problem      163
Conditional probabilities in cab-color problem      125Ч130
Conditional probabilities, Bayes'rule and      111 116Ч117
Conditional probabilities, difficulties in conditionalizing      350Ч352
Conditional probabilities, estimating      400Ч401
Conditional probabilities, Simpson's paradox and      211Ч212
Conditional probabilities, transposed      352Ч353
Condorcet, M.      186 206 447
Confidence difficulty      325Ч326
confidence intervals      270
Confidence intervals, sample size and      301
Confidence vs. weight of evidence      303
Confidence, degree of      22
Confidence, hyperprecision effect      329Ч330
Confidence, level of      248Ч249
Confidence-judgment studies      315Ч316
Confirmation bias      319 412 437
Confirmation, paradoxes of      213Ч214
Conjunction fallacy      343Ч349 354 435 437
Conjunction fallacy, commonness of      343Ч345
Conjunction fallacy, reality of      345Ч349
Conjunction fallacy, representativeness and      374
Conjunctive events      435
Conjunctive events, anchoring and adjustment and      377
Conjunctive events, overestimation of      342
Conjunctive events, probabilities of      341Ч343
Conjunctive model of decision making      358
Consensus information      410Ч412
Conservatism      320
Conservatism in probabilistic judgments      399Ч401
Conservatism, Bayes'rule and      113 115
Conservatism, reconciling      409Ч410.See also Underconfidence
Constantini, A.R      284 459
Contingency      332Ч333 435
Contingency tables      209Ч210 211
Contingency tables, covariation in      333Ч336
Contingency, expectations and      337Ч338
Contingency, information for estimating      336Ч337
Contingent property, randomness as      61Ч66
Contraction bias      328Ч329
Control, decision making and illusion of      394Ч396
Coombs, B.      306 328 376 466
Coombs, C.H.      358 362 447
Cooper, A.C.      309 447
Cooperation in prisoner's dilemma      216Ч222
Cooperation, principle of maximization of expected utility and      368
Cooperativeness principle      346 348
Copi, I.M.      160 161 163 165 168 169 447
Cornoldi, C.      318 468
Correlation, illusory      338Ч341 353
Corrigan, B.      358 359 448
Cortina, J.M.      250 251 447
Cosmic numbers      100Ч101
Cosmides, L.      407 447
Costs, estimating      287Ч291
Counter-Reformation, probabilistic thinking and      2Ч3
Cournot, A.A.      32 186 447
Covariation      71
Covariation in contingency tables      333Ч336
Covariation, among events      336Ч337
Covariation, base rates and      408
Covariation, estimating      408 435
Covariation, expectations and      337Ч338
Covariation, perception of      332Ч333.See also Variation
Covello, V.T.      310 447
Cowan, T.      58 483
Cox, D.R.      250 447
Coxeter, H.S.M.      173 441
Coyle, B.W.      295 478
Cramer, G.      198 447
Crandall, R.      405 406 411 472
Credibility      24
Credibility in argument      264
Credibility, judgments of      23
Cressey, L.J.      466
Crocker, J.      333 334 337 338 447
Crouch, E.A.C.      276 314 447 487
Crowe, B.      226 447
Croyle, R.T.      309 461
Cudeck,R.C.      251 444
Cull, W.L.      318 447
Curriculum Framework Task Force, Mathematical Sciences Education Board      284
Cutts, D.      71 445
Cvetkovich, G.      310 447
Cycloid, inverted      98Ч99
Czerlinski, J.      384 447
D'Andrade, R.G.      339 480
Dahiya, R.C.      156 470
Dale, A.L      160 163 164 448
Dale, H.C.A.      73 412 448
Damas, P.A.      388 448
Danzig, E.R.      413 487
Dart throwing, streaking performance in      77Ч78
Daston      375 409 413 420 421 430
Daston, L.      2 13 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 455
Daston, L.J.      15 22 31 241 448 464
Data, Bayes' rule and collection of      140
Data, diagnosticity of      112
David, F.N.      3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 243 281 448
Davies, P.      26 54 103 448
Davies, P.C.W.      27 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 448
Davis, C.D.      466
Davis, H.L.      377 448
Davis, J.N.      335 371 384 448 456
Davis, P.J.      17 55 448
Dawes, R.      320 448
Dawes, R.M.      214 221 222 225 274 276 293 294 295 320 344 347 348 358 359 377 386 390 417 440 448 483
De Divina Proportione (Paccioli)      3
de Dombal, F.T.      323 448
de Finetti, B.      35 391 448
De Mensura Sortis (Moivre)      11
de Moivre, A.      11 26 240 449
De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae (Huygens)      10
Deane, D.H.      295 458
Dearnaley, E.J.      291 446
DeBono, K.G.      428 458
Decision making, admissible scoring rules      391Ч394
Decision making, Bayesian      117Ч118
Decision making, diagnostic      351
Decision making, either-or      268
Decision making, endowment effect      388Ч390
Decision making, expected utility theory      360Ч369
Decision making, expected utility theory, alternatives to      369Ч371
Decision making, force of personal experience in      396Ч397
Decision making, framing effects in      385Ч388
Decision making, illusion of control and      394Ч396
Decision making, inductive heuristics and      371Ч381
Decision making, maximization of expected utility and      360Ч369
Decision making, models      357Ч360
Decision making, outcome certainty/uncertainty      356
Decision making, regression and      256
Decision making, self-evaluation of confidence in      318Ч321
Decision making, single-reason      384
Decision making, utility and value and      357
Decision making, when to quit      151Ч155
Decision making, yes-no vs. forced-choice      355Ч356
Decision theory, ambiguity and      274
Decision theory, value vs. utility and      198
Deductive reasoning      19
Defection, in prisoner's dilemma      216Ч221
DeGroot, M.H.      137 367 442 448
DeJoy, D.      308 309 396 449
Deldin, P.J.      387 466
DeLuca, D.R.      313 456
Demographic data      233
Denes-Raj, V.      296 449
Dennett, D.C.      379 449
Density function      242
DePitts, K.E,      117 415 478
Derby, S.L.      305 452
Description invariance      365Ч366
Description, statistical      244Ч246
Descriptive statistics      151
Design of Experiments, The (Fisher)      268
Design, regularities as evidence of      240Ч241
Determinism, "grim"      239Ч240
Determinism, explanation and      258Ч259
Determinism, probabilistic thinking and      271
Determinism, probability and      25Ч28
Determinism, randomness and      80
Determinism, statistical      239Ч240
Determinism, statistical regularity and      26Ч27
Determinism, transitivity of ordering relationships and      205Ч206
DeVault, R.C.      297 482
Deviation      242
Devine,P.G.      400 413 449
Devlin, K.      46 48 61 96 449
Dewdney, A.K.      82 276 279 449
Diaconis, P.      86 88 89 352 449
Diagnostic decision making      351
Diagnosticity of data      112
Dice      2 180
Dice, equiprobable outcomes of toss of three      10
Dice, imaginary      13
Dice, intransitive      207Ч208
Dice, stochastic processes underlying      260 261
Dick, T.      156 479
Dickens, C.      84 449
Dickhaut, J.      224 366 442
Dickinson, A.      396 449
Dickinson, R.E.      305 449
Dilemmas      215Ч230
Dilemmas, infinitely frustrating      228Ч230
Dilemmas, prisoner's dilemma      215Ч221
Dilemmas, related problem      221Ч222
Dilemmas, social      225Ч228 230
Dilemmas, ultimatum game      222Ч225
Diminishing marginal utility      198
directionality      136Ч137
Discount rate      365
Discounting the future      365
Discovered randomness, vs. predicted      66Ч70
Disease diagnosis, Bayesian analysis and      132Ч134 135Ч136
Disease diagnosis, diagnostic tests and      277Ч279 403Ч404
Disease diagnosis, identifying conditional probabilities and      351Ч353
Disease diagnosis, signal detection theory and      273Ч274
Disjunctive events      435
Disjunctive events, anchoring and adjustment and      377
Disjunctive events, probabilities of      341Ч343
Disjunctive events, underestimations of      342Ч343
Disjunctive model of decision making      358
Dissertatio de Arte Combinatoria (Leibniz)      431
Ditto, P.H.      309 449 461
Dixon, P.      250 449
Do-no-harm principle      370Ч371
Doctrine of Chances, The (Moivre)      11Ч12
dodecahedron      94Ч95
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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