Àâòîðèçàöèÿ
Ïîèñê ïî óêàçàòåëÿì
Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Îáñóäèòå êíèãó íà íàó÷íîì ôîðóìå Íàøëè îïå÷àòêó?
Íàçâàíèå: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningÀâòîð: Nickerson R. Àííîòàöèÿ: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
ßçûê: Ðóáðèêà: Ïñèõîëîãèÿ /Ñòàòóñ ïðåäìåòíîãî óêàçàòåëÿ: Ãîòîâ óêàçàòåëü ñ íîìåðàìè ñòðàíèö ed2k: ed2k stats Ãîä èçäàíèÿ: 2004Êîëè÷åñòâî ñòðàíèö: 536Äîáàâëåíà â êàòàëîã: 27.05.2008Îïåðàöèè: Ïîëîæèòü íà ïîëêó |
Ñêîïèðîâàòü ññûëêó äëÿ ôîðóìà | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ID
Ïðåäìåòíûé óêàçàòåëü
Certainty effect 364 Cervone, D. 377 445 Chaganty, N.R. 156 470 Chaiken, S. 428 445 Chaitin, G.J. 56 445 Chammah, A.M. 217 476 Chance 436—437 Chance as causative agent 257 258—259 Chance coincidences 89—91 Chance devices 1—2 Chance variation 33 Chance vs. luck 395 Chance, defined 18 Chance, human knowledge and 20—21 Chance, statistical regularity and 241 Chance, theory of 3—4 Chance, uses of term 51—53 Chandler, C.C. 309 457 Chaos theory 20 26 Chapman, D.P. 387 465 Chapman, G.B. 375 378 445 Chapman, J.P. 332 337 338 445 Chapman, L.J. 332 337 338 433 445 Check lists, decision making 323 Cheng, P.W. 433 472 Chenzoff et al. 412 445 Chesnick, E.I. 290 342 343 427 446 Chess, C. 303 310 312 458 Chi-square test, randomness and 61—62 63 67—68 69 Choice See Decision making Choo, G.T. 431 487 Chow, S.L. 250 445 446 Christensen, C. 293 294 295 320 321 440 Christensen-Szalanski, C.M. 306 446 Christensen-Szalanski, J.J. 317 402 406 407 408 417 446 Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J. 306 446 Chromiak, W. 285 458 Chronbach, L.J. 250 446 Cialdini, R.B. 286 457 Ciampi, A. 364 466 Cicerone, R.J. 305 449 Circle of reasoning 39 Clark, E.V. 346 446 Clark, H.H. 319 346 446 481 Clark, R.D. 312 446 Clarke, R.D. 67 446 Classification, representativeness and 374 Co-occurrence 84 Cocozza, J.J. 307 482 Codable events 302 Coercion, social dilemmas and 227 Cognitive dilemma 338 Cohen, B. 312 446 Cohen, I.B. 16 446 Cohen, J. 71 250 251 279 291 398 446 Cohen, L.J. 24 35 122 125 126 130 132 133 134 135 136 290 301 303 342 343 346 347 379 401 413 421 422 423 427 429 446 Cohen, M.D. 256 447 Cohen, M.R. 208 447 coin toss 179—180 Coin toss, probability of sequences 143—147 149 Coin toss, representativeness and 374 Coin toss, St. Petersburg paradox and 182—185 Coin toss, stochastic processes underlying 260 261 262—263 Coin toss, triplet sequences 145—147 208 Coincidences 82—108 Coincidences, anthropic principle 103—108 Coincidences, chance 89—91 Coincidences, common-cause 89—91 Coincidences, commonness of 87—89 Coincidences, defining 84—85 Coincidences, in science 91—103 Coincidences, meaningfulness of 85 Coincidences, personal involvement and 86—87 Coincidences, small prior probability and 86 Cole, K.C. 206 218 447 Coleman, W. 265 442 447 Collaborative tasks, overestimation of own contribution to 373 Collective object 33 College selection, riskless choice models and 358 Combinations, vs. permutations 10 Combinatorial analysis 4—7 Combs, B. 306 447 Commitment 412 Common-cause coincidences 89—91 Communication, risk 303 312—314 Competitive behavior, prisoner's dilemma and 217 221—222 Complexity theory 20 26 Compound event, prediction outcome of 296 Compound-probability fallacy 343—349 Compressibility, randomness and 58 61 Compulsive gambling 299 Conceptual categorization 232 conditional probabilities 111 349—353 354 Conditional probabilities in aces and kings problem 163 Conditional probabilities in cab-color problem 125—130 Conditional probabilities, Bayes'rule and 111 116—117 Conditional probabilities, difficulties in conditionalizing 350—352 Conditional probabilities, estimating 400—401 Conditional probabilities, Simpson's paradox and 211—212 Conditional probabilities, transposed 352—353 Condorcet, M. 186 206 447 Confidence difficulty 325—326 confidence intervals 270 Confidence intervals, sample size and 301 Confidence vs. weight of evidence 303 Confidence, degree of 22 Confidence, hyperprecision effect 329—330 Confidence, level of 248—249 Confidence-judgment studies 315—316 Confirmation bias 319 412 437 Confirmation, paradoxes of 213—214 Conjunction fallacy 343—349 354 435 437 Conjunction fallacy, commonness of 343—345 Conjunction fallacy, reality of 345—349 Conjunction fallacy, representativeness and 374 Conjunctive events 435 Conjunctive events, anchoring and adjustment and 377 Conjunctive events, overestimation of 342 Conjunctive events, probabilities of 341—343 Conjunctive model of decision making 358 Consensus information 410—412 Conservatism 320 Conservatism in probabilistic judgments 399—401 Conservatism, Bayes'rule and 113 115 Conservatism, reconciling 409—410.See also Underconfidence Constantini, A.R 284 459 Contingency 332—333 435 Contingency tables 209—210 211 Contingency tables, covariation in 333—336 Contingency, expectations and 337—338 Contingency, information for estimating 336—337 Contingent property, randomness as 61—66 Contraction bias 328—329 Control, decision making and illusion of 394—396 Coombs, B. 306 328 376 466 Coombs, C.H. 358 362 447 Cooper, A.C. 309 447 Cooperation in prisoner's dilemma 216—222 Cooperation, principle of maximization of expected utility and 368 Cooperativeness principle 346 348 Copi, I.M. 160 161 163 165 168 169 447 Cornoldi, C. 318 468 Correlation, illusory 338—341 353 Corrigan, B. 358 359 448 Cortina, J.M. 250 251 447 Cosmic numbers 100—101 Cosmides, L. 407 447 Costs, estimating 287—291 Counter-Reformation, probabilistic thinking and 2—3 Cournot, A.A. 32 186 447 Covariation 71 Covariation in contingency tables 333—336 Covariation, among events 336—337 Covariation, base rates and 408 Covariation, estimating 408 435 Covariation, expectations and 337—338 Covariation, perception of 332—333.See also Variation Covello, V.T. 310 447 Cowan, T. 58 483 Cox, D.R. 250 447 Coxeter, H.S.M. 173 441 Coyle, B.W. 295 478 Cramer, G. 198 447 Crandall, R. 405 406 411 472 Credibility 24 Credibility in argument 264 Credibility, judgments of 23 Cressey, L.J. 466 Crocker, J. 333 334 337 338 447 Crouch, E.A.C. 276 314 447 487 Crowe, B. 226 447 Croyle, R.T. 309 461 Cudeck,R.C. 251 444 Cull, W.L. 318 447 Curriculum Framework Task Force, Mathematical Sciences Education Board 284 Cutts, D. 71 445 Cvetkovich, G. 310 447 Cycloid, inverted 98—99 Czerlinski, J. 384 447 D'Andrade, R.G. 339 480 Dahiya, R.C. 156 470 Dale, A.L 160 163 164 448 Dale, H.C.A. 73 412 448 Damas, P.A. 388 448 Danzig, E.R. 413 487 Dart throwing, streaking performance in 77—78 Daston 375 409 413 420 421 430 Daston, L. 2 13 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 455 Daston, L.J. 15 22 31 241 448 464 Data, Bayes' rule and collection of 140 Data, diagnosticity of 112 David, F.N. 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 243 281 448 Davies, P. 26 54 103 448 Davies, P.C.W. 27 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 448 Davis, C.D. 466 Davis, H.L. 377 448 Davis, J.N. 335 371 384 448 456 Davis, P.J. 17 55 448 Dawes, R. 320 448 Dawes, R.M. 214 221 222 225 274 276 293 294 295 320 344 347 348 358 359 377 386 390 417 440 448 483 De Divina Proportione (Paccioli) 3 de Dombal, F.T. 323 448 de Finetti, B. 35 391 448 De Mensura Sortis (Moivre) 11 de Moivre, A. 11 26 240 449 De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae (Huygens) 10 Deane, D.H. 295 458 Dearnaley, E.J. 291 446 DeBono, K.G. 428 458 Decision making, admissible scoring rules 391—394 Decision making, Bayesian 117—118 Decision making, diagnostic 351 Decision making, either-or 268 Decision making, endowment effect 388—390 Decision making, expected utility theory 360—369 Decision making, expected utility theory, alternatives to 369—371 Decision making, force of personal experience in 396—397 Decision making, framing effects in 385—388 Decision making, illusion of control and 394—396 Decision making, inductive heuristics and 371—381 Decision making, maximization of expected utility and 360—369 Decision making, models 357—360 Decision making, outcome certainty/uncertainty 356 Decision making, regression and 256 Decision making, self-evaluation of confidence in 318—321 Decision making, single-reason 384 Decision making, utility and value and 357 Decision making, when to quit 151—155 Decision making, yes-no vs. forced-choice 355—356 Decision theory, ambiguity and 274 Decision theory, value vs. utility and 198 Deductive reasoning 19 Defection, in prisoner's dilemma 216—221 DeGroot, M.H. 137 367 442 448 DeJoy, D. 308 309 396 449 Deldin, P.J. 387 466 DeLuca, D.R. 313 456 Demographic data 233 Denes-Raj, V. 296 449 Dennett, D.C. 379 449 Density function 242 DePitts, K.E, 117 415 478 Derby, S.L. 305 452 Description invariance 365—366 Description, statistical 244—246 Descriptive statistics 151 Design of Experiments, The (Fisher) 268 Design, regularities as evidence of 240—241 Determinism, "grim" 239—240 Determinism, explanation and 258—259 Determinism, probabilistic thinking and 271 Determinism, probability and 25—28 Determinism, randomness and 80 Determinism, statistical 239—240 Determinism, statistical regularity and 26—27 Determinism, transitivity of ordering relationships and 205—206 DeVault, R.C. 297 482 Deviation 242 Devine,P.G. 400 413 449 Devlin, K. 46 48 61 96 449 Dewdney, A.K. 82 276 279 449 Diaconis, P. 86 88 89 352 449 Diagnostic decision making 351 Diagnosticity of data 112 Dice 2 180 Dice, equiprobable outcomes of toss of three 10 Dice, imaginary 13 Dice, intransitive 207—208 Dice, stochastic processes underlying 260 261 Dick, T. 156 479 Dickens, C. 84 449 Dickhaut, J. 224 366 442 Dickinson, A. 396 449 Dickinson, R.E. 305 449 Dilemmas 215—230 Dilemmas, infinitely frustrating 228—230 Dilemmas, prisoner's dilemma 215—221 Dilemmas, related problem 221—222 Dilemmas, social 225—228 230 Dilemmas, ultimatum game 222—225 Diminishing marginal utility 198 directionality 136—137 Discount rate 365 Discounting the future 365 Discovered randomness, vs. predicted 66—70 Disease diagnosis, Bayesian analysis and 132—134 135—136 Disease diagnosis, diagnostic tests and 277—279 403—404 Disease diagnosis, identifying conditional probabilities and 351—353 Disease diagnosis, signal detection theory and 273—274 Disjunctive events 435 Disjunctive events, anchoring and adjustment and 377 Disjunctive events, probabilities of 341—343 Disjunctive events, underestimations of 342—343 Disjunctive model of decision making 358 Dissertatio de Arte Combinatoria (Leibniz) 431 Ditto, P.H. 309 449 461 Dixon, P. 250 449 Do-no-harm principle 370—371 Doctrine of Chances, The (Moivre) 11—12 dodecahedron 94—95
Ðåêëàìà
|
|
Î ïðîåêòå