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Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
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Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningАвтор: Nickerson R. Аннотация: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
Язык: Рубрика: Психология /Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц ed2k: ed2k stats Год издания: 2004Количество страниц: 536Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008Операции: Положить на полку |
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Reciprocally altruistic behavior 217 Rectangular distribution 245 Recursive formula 58 Reed, H. 405 406 411 472 Rees,M. 102 103 104 457 Reformation, probabilistic thinking and 2—3 Regression to the mean 252—256 414 Regularities, as result of design 240—241 Reichardt, C.S. 22 476 Rejection-support (RS) testing 77 Relative frequency 31 34—35 38 45 Relative frequency in cab-color problem 131 Relative frequency, availability and 372 380 Relative frequency, confidence and 324 Relative frequency, estimating 285—287 Relative frequency, probability and 23 Relevance, as issue in Bayesian analysis 134—136 Religion, anthropic principle and 105—106 107 Renn, O. 306 476 Representative sampling 247 Representativeness 373—375 Research results, interpretation of 283.See also Estimation; Prediction Researches into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory of Wealth (Cournot) 16 Resolution 315 316 Responsibility for uncertain events 396 Reversal paradox 208—212 Rgveda Samhita 2 Richardson, J.T.E. 426 475 Richardson, L.E. 252 476 Riedl, A. 224 452 Rindskopf, D.M. 142 269 477 Rips, L.J. 374 481 Risk assessment 292 303—304 331 Risk assessment, psychological research on 305 Risk assessment, understanding 313—314 Risk aversion 310—311 Risk communication 303 312—314 Risk estimation 307—309 Risk information 303 Risk of measurable uncertainty 356 Risk perception 303 313—314 331 Risk perception of relative seriousness of specific risks 306—307 Risk perception vs. risk acceptability 309 Risk perception, psychological research on 305 Risk, acceptability of 309—312 Risk, endowment effect and 389—390 Risk, estimation of 50—51 Risk, normative models of decision making under 358—359 Risk, reporting 314 Risky-shift phenomenon 311—312 Roberts, L. 306 477 Roberts, N.E. 308 487 Robertson, L.S. 308 477 Robinson, D. 250 477 Robinson, L.B. 415 427 477 Roby, T.B. 391 392 477 Roff, M. 413 487 Ronis, D.L. 317 477 Rorer, L.G. 338 456 Rose, L.E. 160 161 162 163 477 Rose, P.M. 286 462 Rosen, A. 404 469 Ross, L. 317 319 321 322 333 336 337 339 340 396 405 414 416 457 461 472 484 Ross, M. 289 290 291 373 444 471 477 Roth, A.E. 223 224 477 Roth, J. 296 465 Rothman, S. 306 477 Rothschild, B.L. 57 456 Rouanet, H. 142 269 477 Rowen, J. 296 477 Roxburgh, I.W. 103 477 Rozeboom, W.W. 30 139 142 250 269 350 477 Rubenstein, M. 318 459 Rubin, D.B. 142 269 454 477 Ruelle, D. 236 477 Rules in cards problems 164—169 171—173 Rules, admissible scoring 391—394 Rules, Bertrand's paradox 201—202 Rules, probability theory and 29 Russel, G.D. 82 477 Russo, C.P. 387 466 Ryback, D. 321 477 Saarinen, T.F. 312 477 Sahlin, N.-E. 274 361 454 477 Saks, M.J. 415 478 Saliency, base rates and 407 408 Salmon, W.C. 31 204 478 Salsburg, D. 33 235 243 266 268 281 478 Samet, M. 137 478 Samet, M.G. 401 462 Sample size 257 Sample size, generalizing from small 396—397 Sample size, illusory correlation and 340—341 Sample size, intuitions regarding 299—302 331 434 Sample size, law of large numbers and 185 Sample-to-population ratio 302—303 Sample/sampling 246 Sample/sampling, average and 151 Sample/sampling, bias in 279 Sample/sampling, error in 244 269 Sample/sampling, representative 247 Samuelson, C.D. 469 Samuelson, P.A. 184 186 198 290 478 Sanbonmatsu, D.M. 297 454 Sandman, P. 486 487 Sandman, P.M. 303 308 310 312 458 Sanft, H. 285 488 Sanitary statistics 237—238 Sanocki, T. 317 455 Sattath, S. 364 366 484 Savage, L.J. 19 23 35 118 142 269 350 357 360 450 453 478 Savage, P.S., Jr. 208 478 Scenario thinking 344 Schaalman, M.L. 372 443 Schachter, S. 411 472 Schaffner, P.E. 341 478 Schkade, D.A. 366 461 478 Schlaifer, R.O. 357 476 Schlotterbek, M. 407 478 Schmelkin, L.P. 250 474 Schmidt, F.L. 250 478 Schmidt, K.M. 224 254 452 Schmitt, N. 295 478 Schneider, R.J. 399 474 Schneider, W. 285 453 Schoenberger, A. 404 445 Schorr, J.K. 312 456 Schrier, R.W. 304 441 Schum, D.A. 117 400 401 415 478 482 Schuman, H. 290 452 Schustack, M.W. 334 478 Schwartz, S. 359 463 Schwarz, N. 425 479 Schweder, R.A. 480 science 89 Science, coincidences in 91—103 Science, coincidences in, between mathematics and physics 96—100.See also Physics Science, coincidences in, Kepler's spheres 94—96 Science, coincidences in, large-number coincidences 100—101 Scientific determinism 26 Scientific thinking, probability and 16 Scopp, T.S. 285 333 340 442 Searle, J.R. 346 479 Seaver, D.A. 321 322 388 479 Second cosmic number 100—101 Secretary selection problem 154—155 Sedikides, C. 308 479 Sedlmeier, P. 250 479 Seitz, E 306 479 Selection fallacy 89 Selectivity, coincidences and 87 Selectivity, randomness and 69—70 Self-evaluation 314—330 Self-evaluation, confidence and judgment difficulty 325—326 Self-evaluation, contraction bias 328—329 Self-evaluation, hyperprecision effect 329—330 Self-evaluation, overconfidence 315—316 317—321 326—328 Self-evaluation, overconfidence, artifactual contributions 326—328 Self-evaluation, overconfidence, bases for 322—325 Self-evaluation, overconfidence, reducing 321—322 Self-evaluation, underconfidence 315—316 326—328 Self-interest, in ultimatum game 223—225 Selvin, S. 156 479 Semantics, betting 25 Semantics, frequency 25 Sennott, C.M. 287 479 Seymann, R.G. 156 479 Shackle, G.L.S. 363 479 Shafer, G. 24 25 32 33 39 59 361 479 Shafir,E. 212 221 311 479 Shaklee, H. 319 333 334 479 Shanks, D. 396 449 Shapiro, B.J. 22 479 Shapiro, S.H. 212 479 Sharlin, H.I. 313 479 Shaughnessy, J.M. 156 479 Shaver, J.P. 250 480 Shaw, G.B. 236 480 Shedler, T. 372 480 Shepard, R.N. 358 480 Sherman, S.J. 289 338 352 400 458 480 Shodell, M. 303 480 Showers, C. 428 480 Shrauger, J.S. 405 473 Shrout, P.E. 250 480 Shuford, E.H. 316 391 480 Shweder, R.A. 333 339 480 Sibling gender problem 155—157 Sicoly ,R. 291 373 477 Siegel, J. 308 441 Sigmund, K. 217 218 223 224 472 480 Signal detection theory 272—274 280 413 Significance test 266 270—271 Silk, J. 102 441 Silka, L. 426 480 Simon, H.A. 358 367 369 382 397 480 Simpson's paradox 78 208—212 Simpson, E.H. 209 480 Singer, B.H. 55 475 Singer, J.E. 310 441 Single-reason decision making 384 Sisters and brothers problem 176—179 Skewed distribution 265 284 Skov, R.B. 400 480 Slote, M. 228 229 230 369 480 Slovic, P. 118 123 125 128 283 297 305 306 310 312 314 317 318 321 323 328 343 358 359 364 366 373 375 376 387 388 399 400 402 404 407 414 415 447 452 453 462 466 467 481 484 Slugoski, B.R. 346 481 Smedslund, J. 333 334 481 Smith, B. 361 442 Smith, D.S. 151 481 Smith, E.E. 374 481 Smith, R.A. 74 76 429 465 Smith, V.L. 319 481 Smyth, C.P. 93 481 Snapper, K.J. 117 400 481 482 Sniezek, J.A. 322 473 Sniezek, R.A. 321 482 Snodgrass, J.G. 297 461 Social context, response to risk and 310 Social dilemmas 225—228 230.See Social numbers 233—234 Social physics 238 Social statistics 233—235 Social trap 225 227 Sociological research, hybrid inference and 270 Sohn, D. 250 482 Southard, J.E 400 478 482 Sowby, F.D. 312 482 Sox, H., Jr. 387 469 Space, quantizing 201—204 Space, randomness and partitioning of 62—67 Spencer, J.H. 57 456 Spherical-gain rule 391—393 Spirer, H.E 279 461 Spooner, R.L. 401 462 Sports, hot-hand phenomenon 73—79 Sprent, P. 212 275 482 Sprott, D.A. 250 463 Sproul, R.C. 482 Srull, T.K. 352 425 488 St. Petersburg paradox 182—199 364 430 St. Petersburg paradox, expected values and 187—197 St. Petersburg paradox, most likely outcomes 187—197 St. Petersburg paradox, value and utility and 198—199 Stakes-division problem 3 Stallen, P. 310 485 Standard deviation 245 Stanier, R.A. 309 469 Staniland, J.R. 323 448 Starr, C. 310 482 Starr, M.K. 361 470 States of mind, probability as 23 States of mind, probability statements and 20 States of the world, normative models of decision making and 359—360 Statistical artifacts 326—329 Statistical description 244—246 Statistical determinism 239—240 Statistical heuristics 417 Statistical hypothesis testing 235 244 247—251.See Statistical judgments 23 Statistical Methods for Research Workers (Fisher) 266 268 Statistical null hypothesis 266—267.See also Null hypothesis Statistical probability 22 Statistical probability vs. judgmental 30—39 Statistical regularity 236—241 Statistical regularity, determinism and 26—27 Statistical thinking, bases of erroneous 425—429 Statistics 437 Statistics, ambiguity in statistical assertions 274—279 Statistics, as theory of mind 279—281 Statistics, as theory of mind, statistical description 244—246 Statistics, as theory of mind, statistical estimation 246—247 Statistics, as theory of mind, statistical hypothesis testing 247—251 Statistics, as theory of mind, use of 244—251 Statistics, birth of 233—236 Statistics, education in 431—433 435 Statistics, error 242—244 Statistics, law of large numbers See under Laws Statistics, probability theory and 21 Statistics, sanitary 237—238 Statistics, signal detection theory 272—274 Statistics, social 233—235 Statistics, statistical explanation 251—264 Statistics, statistical explanation, identification of underlying stochastic processes 260—263 Statistics, statistical explanation, in service of argument 263—264 Statistics, statistical explanation, regression to the mean 252—256 Statistics, statistical explanation, vs. causal 256—260 Statistics, statistical inference theories 265—274 Statistics, statistical inference theories, Bayesian inference 269 Statistics, statistical inference theories, Fisherian inference 266—268 Statistics, statistical inference theories, hybrid inferential statistics 269—272 Statistics, statistical inference theories, Neyman — Pearson inference 268—269 Statistics, variability 242—244 Status quo, anchoring and 377 Steadman, H.J. 307 482 Steiger, J.H. 77 117 482 Stein, D.K. 285 456 Steinhaus, H. 208 482 Stereotyping 339 Sterling, T.D. 270 482
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