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Nickerson R. Ч Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Nickerson R. Ч Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

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Ќазвание: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

јвтор: Nickerson R.

јннотаци€:

Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.


язык: en

–убрика: ѕсихологи€/

—татус предметного указател€: √отов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

√од издани€: 2004

 оличество страниц: 536

ƒобавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008

ќперации: ѕоложить на полку | —копировать ссылку дл€ форума | —копировать ID
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ѕредметный указатель
Reciprocally altruistic behavior      217
Rectangular distribution      245
Recursive formula      58
Reed, H.      405 406 411 472
Rees,M.      102 103 104 457
Reformation, probabilistic thinking and      2Ч3
Regression to the mean      252Ч256 414
Regularities, as result of design      240Ч241
Reichardt, C.S.      22 476
Rejection-support (RS) testing      77
Relative frequency      31 34Ч35 38 45
Relative frequency in cab-color problem      131
Relative frequency, availability and      372 380
Relative frequency, confidence and      324
Relative frequency, estimating      285Ч287
Relative frequency, probability and      23
Relevance, as issue in Bayesian analysis      134Ч136
Religion, anthropic principle and      105Ч106 107
Renn, O.      306 476
Representative sampling      247
Representativeness      373Ч375
Research results, interpretation of      283.See also Estimation; Prediction
Researches into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory of Wealth (Cournot)      16
Resolution      315 316
Responsibility for uncertain events      396
Reversal paradox      208Ч212
Rgveda Samhita      2
Richardson, J.T.E.      426 475
Richardson, L.E.      252 476
Riedl, A.      224 452
Rindskopf, D.M.      142 269 477
Rips, L.J.      374 481
Risk assessment      292 303Ч304 331
Risk assessment, psychological research on      305
Risk assessment, understanding      313Ч314
Risk aversion      310Ч311
Risk communication      303 312Ч314
Risk estimation      307Ч309
Risk information      303
Risk of measurable uncertainty      356
Risk perception      303 313Ч314 331
Risk perception of relative seriousness of specific risks      306Ч307
Risk perception vs. risk acceptability      309
Risk perception, psychological research on      305
Risk, acceptability of      309Ч312
Risk, endowment effect and      389Ч390
Risk, estimation of      50Ч51
Risk, normative models of decision making under      358Ч359
Risk, reporting      314
Risky-shift phenomenon      311Ч312
Roberts, L.      306 477
Roberts, N.E.      308 487
Robertson, L.S.      308 477
Robinson, D.      250 477
Robinson, L.B.      415 427 477
Roby, T.B.      391 392 477
Roff, M.      413 487
Ronis, D.L.      317 477
Rorer, L.G.      338 456
Rose, L.E.      160 161 162 163 477
Rose, P.M.      286 462
Rosen, A.      404 469
Ross, L.      317 319 321 322 333 336 337 339 340 396 405 414 416 457 461 472 484
Ross, M.      289 290 291 373 444 471 477
Roth, A.E.      223 224 477
Roth, J.      296 465
Rothman, S.      306 477
Rothschild, B.L.      57 456
Rouanet, H.      142 269 477
Rowen, J.      296 477
Roxburgh, I.W.      103 477
Rozeboom, W.W.      30 139 142 250 269 350 477
Rubenstein, M.      318 459
Rubin, D.B.      142 269 454 477
Ruelle, D.      236 477
Rules in cards problems      164Ч169 171Ч173
Rules, admissible scoring      391Ч394
Rules, Bertrand's paradox      201Ч202
Rules, probability theory and      29
Russel, G.D.      82 477
Russo, C.P.      387 466
Ryback, D.      321 477
Saarinen, T.F.      312 477
Sahlin, N.-E.      274 361 454 477
Saks, M.J.      415 478
Saliency, base rates and      407 408
Salmon, W.C.      31 204 478
Salsburg, D.      33 235 243 266 268 281 478
Samet, M.      137 478
Samet, M.G.      401 462
Sample size      257
Sample size, generalizing from small      396Ч397
Sample size, illusory correlation and      340Ч341
Sample size, intuitions regarding      299Ч302 331 434
Sample size, law of large numbers and      185
Sample-to-population ratio      302Ч303
Sample/sampling      246
Sample/sampling, average and      151
Sample/sampling, bias in      279
Sample/sampling, error in      244 269
Sample/sampling, representative      247
Samuelson, C.D.      469
Samuelson, P.A.      184 186 198 290 478
Sanbonmatsu, D.M.      297 454
Sandman, P.      486 487
Sandman, P.M.      303 308 310 312 458
Sanft, H.      285 488
Sanitary statistics      237Ч238
Sanocki, T.      317 455
Sattath, S.      364 366 484
Savage, L.J.      19 23 35 118 142 269 350 357 360 450 453 478
Savage, P.S., Jr.      208 478
Scenario thinking      344
Schaalman, M.L.      372 443
Schachter, S.      411 472
Schaffner, P.E.      341 478
Schkade, D.A.      366 461 478
Schlaifer, R.O.      357 476
Schlotterbek, M.      407 478
Schmelkin, L.P.      250 474
Schmidt, F.L.      250 478
Schmidt, K.M.      224 254 452
Schmitt, N.      295 478
Schneider, R.J.      399 474
Schneider, W.      285 453
Schoenberger, A.      404 445
Schorr, J.K.      312 456
Schrier, R.W.      304 441
Schum, D.A.      117 400 401 415 478 482
Schuman, H.      290 452
Schustack, M.W.      334 478
Schwartz, S.      359 463
Schwarz, N.      425 479
Schweder, R.A.      480
science      89
Science, coincidences in      91Ч103
Science, coincidences in, between mathematics and physics      96Ч100.See also Physics
Science, coincidences in, Kepler's spheres      94Ч96
Science, coincidences in, large-number coincidences      100Ч101
Scientific determinism      26
Scientific thinking, probability and      16
Scopp, T.S.      285 333 340 442
Searle, J.R.      346 479
Seaver, D.A.      321 322 388 479
Second cosmic number      100Ч101
Secretary selection problem      154Ч155
Sedikides, C.      308 479
Sedlmeier, P.      250 479
Seitz, E      306 479
Selection fallacy      89
Selectivity, coincidences and      87
Selectivity, randomness and      69Ч70
Self-evaluation      314Ч330
Self-evaluation, confidence and judgment difficulty      325Ч326
Self-evaluation, contraction bias      328Ч329
Self-evaluation, hyperprecision effect      329Ч330
Self-evaluation, overconfidence      315Ч316 317Ч321 326Ч328
Self-evaluation, overconfidence, artifactual contributions      326Ч328
Self-evaluation, overconfidence, bases for      322Ч325
Self-evaluation, overconfidence, reducing      321Ч322
Self-evaluation, underconfidence      315Ч316 326Ч328
Self-interest, in ultimatum game      223Ч225
Selvin, S.      156 479
Semantics, betting      25
Semantics, frequency      25
Sennott, C.M.      287 479
Seymann, R.G.      156 479
Shackle, G.L.S.      363 479
Shafer, G.      24 25 32 33 39 59 361 479
Shafir,E.      212 221 311 479
Shaklee, H.      319 333 334 479
Shanks, D.      396 449
Shapiro, B.J.      22 479
Shapiro, S.H.      212 479
Sharlin, H.I.      313 479
Shaughnessy, J.M.      156 479
Shaver, J.P.      250 480
Shaw, G.B.      236 480
Shedler, T.      372 480
Shepard, R.N.      358 480
Sherman, S.J.      289 338 352 400 458 480
Shodell, M.      303 480
Showers, C.      428 480
Shrauger, J.S.      405 473
Shrout, P.E.      250 480
Shuford, E.H.      316 391 480
Shweder, R.A.      333 339 480
Sibling gender problem      155Ч157
Sicoly ,R.      291 373 477
Siegel, J.      308 441
Sigmund, K.      217 218 223 224 472 480
Signal detection theory      272Ч274 280 413
Significance test      266 270Ч271
Silk, J.      102 441
Silka, L.      426 480
Simon, H.A.      358 367 369 382 397 480
Simpson's paradox      78 208Ч212
Simpson, E.H.      209 480
Singer, B.H.      55 475
Singer, J.E.      310 441
Single-reason decision making      384
Sisters and brothers problem      176Ч179
Skewed distribution      265 284
Skov, R.B.      400 480
Slote, M.      228 229 230 369 480
Slovic, P.      118 123 125 128 283 297 305 306 310 312 314 317 318 321 323 328 343 358 359 364 366 373 375 376 387 388 399 400 402 404 407 414 415 447 452 453 462 466 467 481 484
Slugoski, B.R.      346 481
Smedslund, J.      333 334 481
Smith, B.      361 442
Smith, D.S.      151 481
Smith, E.E.      374 481
Smith, R.A.      74 76 429 465
Smith, V.L.      319 481
Smyth, C.P.      93 481
Snapper, K.J.      117 400 481 482
Sniezek, J.A.      322 473
Sniezek, R.A.      321 482
Snodgrass, J.G.      297 461
Social context, response to risk and      310
Social dilemmas      225Ч228 230.See
Social numbers      233Ч234
Social physics      238
Social statistics      233Ч235
Social trap      225 227
Sociological research, hybrid inference and      270
Sohn, D.      250 482
Southard, J.E      400 478 482
Sowby, F.D.      312 482
Sox, H., Jr.      387 469
Space, quantizing      201Ч204
Space, randomness and partitioning of      62Ч67
Spencer, J.H.      57 456
Spherical-gain rule      391Ч393
Spirer, H.E      279 461
Spooner, R.L.      401 462
Sports, hot-hand phenomenon      73Ч79
Sprent, P.      212 275 482
Sprott, D.A.      250 463
Sproul, R.C.      482
Srull, T.K.      352 425 488
St. Petersburg paradox      182Ч199 364 430
St. Petersburg paradox, expected values and      187Ч197
St. Petersburg paradox, most likely outcomes      187Ч197
St. Petersburg paradox, value and utility and      198Ч199
Stakes-division problem      3
Stallen, P.      310 485
Standard deviation      245
Stanier, R.A.      309 469
Staniland, J.R.      323 448
Starr, C.      310 482
Starr, M.K.      361 470
States of mind, probability as      23
States of mind, probability statements and      20
States of the world, normative models of decision making and      359Ч360
Statistical artifacts      326Ч329
Statistical description      244Ч246
Statistical determinism      239Ч240
Statistical heuristics      417
Statistical hypothesis testing      235 244 247Ч251.See
Statistical judgments      23
Statistical Methods for Research Workers (Fisher)      266 268
Statistical null hypothesis      266Ч267.See also Null hypothesis
Statistical probability      22
Statistical probability vs. judgmental      30Ч39
Statistical regularity      236Ч241
Statistical regularity, determinism and      26Ч27
Statistical thinking, bases of erroneous      425Ч429
Statistics      437
Statistics, ambiguity in statistical assertions      274Ч279
Statistics, as theory of mind      279Ч281
Statistics, as theory of mind, statistical description      244Ч246
Statistics, as theory of mind, statistical estimation      246Ч247
Statistics, as theory of mind, statistical hypothesis testing      247Ч251
Statistics, as theory of mind, use of      244Ч251
Statistics, birth of      233Ч236
Statistics, education in      431Ч433 435
Statistics, error      242Ч244
Statistics, law of large numbers      See under Laws
Statistics, probability theory and      21
Statistics, sanitary      237Ч238
Statistics, signal detection theory      272Ч274
Statistics, social      233Ч235
Statistics, statistical explanation      251Ч264
Statistics, statistical explanation, identification of underlying stochastic processes      260Ч263
Statistics, statistical explanation, in service of argument      263Ч264
Statistics, statistical explanation, regression to the mean      252Ч256
Statistics, statistical explanation, vs. causal      256Ч260
Statistics, statistical inference theories      265Ч274
Statistics, statistical inference theories, Bayesian inference      269
Statistics, statistical inference theories, Fisherian inference      266Ч268
Statistics, statistical inference theories, hybrid inferential statistics      269Ч272
Statistics, statistical inference theories, Neyman Ч Pearson inference      268Ч269
Statistics, variability      242Ч244
Status quo, anchoring and      377
Steadman, H.J.      307 482
Steiger, J.H.      77 117 482
Stein, D.K.      285 456
Steinhaus, H.      208 482
Stereotyping      339
Sterling, T.D.      270 482
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