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Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
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Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningАвтор: Nickerson R. Аннотация: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
Язык: Рубрика: Психология /Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц ed2k: ed2k stats Год издания: 2004Количество страниц: 536Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008Операции: Положить на полку |
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Hacking, I. 1 2 16 18 20 27 28 30 31 32 35 46 118 234 237 239 243 258 281 283 457 Hake, H.W. 71 457 Hakohen, D. 86 457 Hall, J.W. 285 467 Hallman, W.K. 310 457 486 Hamil, R. 377 457 Hamilos, C. 284 475 Hamilton, D.L. 338 339 457 458 Hamilton, W.D. 227 440 Hammel, E.A. 210 443 Hammerton, M. 403 404 458 Hammond, K.R. 295 304 359 440 458 Hance, B.J. 303 310 312 458 Hangenlocher, K.G. 458 Hansel, C.E.M. 291 446 Hansen, R.D. 407 458 Hansen, W.B. 308 458 Haran, D. 290 342 343 446 Hard-easy effect 325—326 327 Hardin, G. 225 226 458 Harkins, S. 226 465 Harkness, A.R. 317 334 428 440 458 Harris, D.M. 308 458 Harris, J.M. 413 458 Harris, P. 309 396 458 Harris, R.J. 250 458 Harshman, R.A. 250 470 Hart, K. 318 452 Harvey, J.H. 407 487 Hasher, L. 285 286 456 458 459 460 488 Hastie, R. 412 413 415 427 459 474 477 485 Hausch, D.B. 318 459 Hayes, J.R.M. 320 459 Hayes-Roth, B. 289 405 459 Hayes-Roth, R. 289 405 459 Hays, W.L. 399 475 Hazard 13 Hazard, risk and 310 Hazard, T. 321 459 Heidelberger, M. 32 281 459 464 Height, regression to the mean and 253—254 Heilbroner, R. 227 459 Hell, W. 406 455 Hemphill, D. 319 456 Hendrick, C. 284 459 Henkel, R.E. 250 470 Henle, M. 352 459 Henrich, J. 223 459 Henrion, M. 292 305 317 356 459 470 Her 13 Herman, L.M. 388 459 Hersh, R. 17 55 448 Hertwig, R. 349 384 459 Hester, G. 73 455 Heuristics 371 435 Heuristics, fast and frugal 382 383—384 Heuristics, normative theory and 420 Heuristics, statistical 417 Heuristics, Take the Best 384.See also Inductive heuristics Hilton, D.J. 346 449 Hindenburg 307 Hinds, P.J. 289 459 Hintzman, D.L. 87 209 211 286 459 Hirschleifer, D. 459 Hirshleifer, D. 218 459 Hirt, E.R. 400 449 Historical notes 187 Hoch, H.S. 286 488 Hoch, S.J. 286 297 317 319 322 372 377 396 448 459 460 Hoffman, M. 304 460 Hoffman, P. 208 460 Hoffrage, U. 327 381 384 407 413 455 459 460 468 Hofstadter, D.R. 228 460 Hofstatter, P.R. 285 460 Hogarth, R.M. 274 317 334 358 359 414 415 417 450 460 Holland, B.K. 351 460 Holland, J.H. 416 460 Hollingsworth, H.L. 315 460 Holyoak, K.J. 416 460 Hombas, V.C 146 460 Hooke, R. 74 76 460 Hoorens, V. 309 396 460 Horgan, J. 303 460 Horrocks, J.C. 323 448 Horvath, R.A. 17 460 Horwich, P. 60 460 Hot-hand phenomenon 73—79 Hot-hand phenomenon, luck and 395 Hot-hand phenomenon, Simpson's paradox and 212 Houghton, R.A. 305 460 How We Know What Isn't So (Gilovich) 279 Howard, R.A. 357 359 460 Howard-Pitney, B. 428 443 Howell, W.C. 285 400 460 Howson,C. 118 460 Hoyle.E 103 461 Huberty, C.J. 251 461 Huff, D. 279 461 Hui, C. 408 454 Human life, anthropic principle and 103—108 Humphreys, M.S. 285 467 Humphreys, P. 386 442 Hunt, A.J. 61 71 416 424 440 Hunter, J.E. 250 461 Hybrid inferential statistics 269—272 Hyman, R. 71 457 Hyperprecision effect 329—330 Hypotheses, confirmatory of hypothesis 213—214 Hypotheses, inverse probability and identification of 113—114.See also Null hypothesis Hypothesis testing, Bayesian reasoning and 138—139 141—142 Hypothesis testing, cumulative use of evidence in 142 Hypothesis testing, statistical 235 244 247—251.See Iaffaldano, M.T. 339 461 Ibrekk, H. 313 461 Ideal-point model of decision making 358 Ignorance, chance as cover for 52 Illusion of consistency 339—340 Illusion of control 394—396 Illusion of control, decision making and 394—396 Illusory cause-effect relationships 341 Illusory correlation 338—341 353 435 437 Illusory correlation, behavior patterns and personality traits 339—341 Illusory correlation, Simpson's paradox and 212 Illusory correlation, training in statistics and 433 Improbable event, defined 39—51 Improbable event, establishing probability of 45—46 Improbable event, proving probability wrong 50—51 Improbable event, specific events vs. events with specific properties 4—45 Improbable event, ubiquity of improbable 46—50 Incidence statistics, ambiguity in presentation of 275—279 Incompressibility, randomness and 55 56 57—58 Indifference principle 35—37 Individuals, risk-taking and 311—312 Inductive heuristics 371—381 Inductive heuristics, anchoring and adjustment 375—378 Inductive heuristics, availability 371—373 Inductive heuristics, effectiveness of 379—381 Inductive heuristics, representativeness 373—375.See also Heuristics Inductive probability 30 31 34 35—37 Inductive reasoning 19 Inferential statistics 265 Information, assessment of covariation and 337—338 Information, base rates and case-specific 406—407 410 Information, confidence in decision making and 320—321 Information, consensus 410—412 Information, predictions and validity of 300—301 Information, primacy effects 412—413 Information, risk 303 Inhelder, B. 335 336 461 Initial probabilities, Bayes' rule and 141 Inquisitive prisoner problem 181—182 Insurable events 15 Interestingness, in argument 264 Interquartile range 245 Intransitive dice 207—208 Intransitivity paradoxes 205—208 Intuition in Bayesian analysis 135 Intuition in probabilistic judgment 180 199 429—430 433—434 438 Intuition, decision making and 370—371 Intuition, faulty 427—428 Intuition, population-size and 302—303 331 Intuition, sample-size and 299—302 331 434—435 Intuition, statistical 437 Intuitive probability 24 30 31 34 Intuitive statistics 398—435 Intuitive statistics, Bayesian reasoning and 398—414 Intuitive statistics, efficacy of education and training and 431—433 Intuitive statistics, quality of probability judgments and 414—430 Invariance, decision making and 385 Invariance, principle of 365—366 Inverse power law 238 Inverse probability theorem See Bayes' rule Inverse square law 238 Inverted cycloid 98—99 IQ, regression to the mean and 255 Irrationality of decision making behavior 363—364 367—368 Irrationality, demonstrating 122 132—134 Irrationality, discounting base rates and 405 Irrationality, framing effects and 386—387 Irrationality, probabilistic reasoning and 418—424 Irrationality, use of heuristics and 379 Irregularity, randomness and 41 55—56 57 Irwin, F.W. 297 461 Jackson, P.E. 118 472 Jacoby, L.L. 286 314 461 Jaffe, A.J. 279 461 Jarvik, M.E. 73 461 Jastrow, R. 306 479 Jaynes, E.P. 139 461 Jeffrey, L. 313 461 Jeffrey, R. 118 461 Jeffreys, H. 23 36 461 Jemmott, J.B. 309 449 461 Jenkins, H.M. 333 334 336 337 338 439 461 486 Jenkins, J.J. 150 151 461 Jennings, D. 333 336 340 461 Jepson, C. 406 461 Jepson, D. 257 301 302 408 414 416 417 433 472 Johnson, B.B. 310 447 Johnson, D. 67 461 Johnson, E.J. 308 366 375 377 445 461 462 478 Johnson, E.M. 291 401 462 Johnson, M.K. 286 462 Johnson, R.D. 387 465 466 Johnston, W.A 291 462 Jones, C.M. 285 462 Jonides, J. 285 462 Jorland, G. 31 182 186 462 Judgment difficulty 325—326 Judgment, interpretation of results and 251 Judgment, role of observer's 271 Judgment, statistics in support of 264.See also Probabilistic judgment/reasoning Judgmental probability vs. statistical 30—39 Judgmental probability, defined 34—35 Judicial reasoning, primacy effect and 413 Juslin, P. 326 327 462 Kac, M. 14 15 29 54 58 252 462 Kadane, J.B. 74 76 429 465 Kahan, J.P. 227 462 Kahneman, D. 43 44 122 123 257 290 299 300 301 311 314 318 320 322 342 343 344 346 347 348 352 357 364 365 366 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 379 385 387 389 397 405 406 407 414 415 429 462 463 484 Kahr, A.S. 283 359 444 Kalbfleisch, J.G. 250 463 Kalman, R. 55 475 Kamlah, A. 14 31 463 Kao, S.E 334 486 Kaplan, M.E 359 463 Kaplan, R.J. 400 463 Kareev, Y. 340 463 Kates, R.W. 73 305 444 Katz, R.W. 292 471 Katz, Y 297 440 Keane, M. 374 481 Keeley, S.M. 433 486 Keeney, R.L. 305 357 452 463 Kelley, C.M. 314 317 319 461 463 Kellogg, R.T. 286 463 Kempton, W. 305 463 Keopsell, T.D. 306 446 Kepler's spheres 94—96 Keren, G.B. 317 318 324 395 396 417 463 485 Kerr, N.L. 413 464 Kerr, R.A. 305 463 Kessler, D.A. 358 463 Keynes, J.M. 23 35 152 186 197 361 463 Kidd, J.B. 289 318 463 Kidd, R.E. 405 415 478 Kim, J.I. 322 483 King's folly 147—149 King, J.P. 419 463 King, L. 295 478 Kintsch, W. 293 463 Kirchsteiger, G. 224 452 Kirk, R. 250 463 Kirkpatrick, L.A. 296 463 Klahr.D. 371 464 Klatzky, R.L. 310 314 464 Klein, J.R. 236 267 Kleinbolting, H. 327 381 455 Klotz, M.L. 308 486 Knetsch, J.L. 389 462 Knight, E.H. 356 464 Knobloch, E. 35 464 Knowledge, anchoring and adjustment and 378 Knowledge, chance and 20—21 Knowledge, mathematical 418—419 Knowledge, overconfidence and 319 321 326 Knowledge, probabilistic mental models and 383 Knowledge, probabilistic reasoning and 416 Knowledge, probability and uncertain 37—39 Kochenberger, G.A. 311 453 Koehler, D.J. 289 471 Koestler, A. 28 464 Kogan, N. 312 442 464 486 Kolmogorov, A.N. 56 464 Konold, C. 59 179 395 426 451 476 Koriat, A. 319 321 464 Kramer, G.P. 413 464 Krantz, D.H. 136 257 301 302 308 361 406 408 414 416 417 433 453 461 464 472 Krantz, S. 453 Kreps, D.M. 369 464 Krischer, J.P. 138 464 Krueger, L. 2 13 16 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 236 239 243 247 258 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 455 464 Kubovy, M. 395 464 Kuhberger, A. 386 464 Kuhn, D. 318 334 464 Kunda, Z. 257 290 301 302 309 340 408 414 416 417 433 464 465 472 Kunreuther, H. 283 481 La Logique, ou I'An de Penser (Arnauld) 10 Lachendro, E. 308 486 Lai, C. 321 440 Lamm, H. 312 471 Landman, J. 404 465 Langer, E.J. 296 394 465 Laplace, P.S. 1 14 18 73 74 109 186 234 237 296 298 357 465 Large-number coincidences 100—101 Larkey, P.D. 74 76 429 465 Laskey.K.B. 384 419 468 Latane, B. 226 411 448 465 Lathrop, R.G. 285 465 Lattimer, J. 82 465
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