Главная    Ex Libris    Книги    Журналы    Статьи    Серии    Каталог    Wanted    Загрузка    ХудЛит    Справка    Поиск по индексам    Поиск    Форум   
blank
Авторизация

       
blank
Поиск по указателям

blank
blank
blank
Красота
blank
Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

Читать книгу
бесплатно

Скачать книгу с нашего сайта нельзя

Обсудите книгу на научном форуме



Нашли опечатку?
Выделите ее мышкой и нажмите Ctrl+Enter


Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

Автор: Nickerson R.

Аннотация:

Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.


Язык: en

Рубрика: Психология/

Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

Год издания: 2004

Количество страниц: 536

Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008

Операции: Положить на полку | Скопировать ссылку для форума | Скопировать ID
blank
Предметный указатель
Hacking, I.      1 2 16 18 20 27 28 30 31 32 35 46 118 234 237 239 243 258 281 283 457
Hake, H.W.      71 457
Hakohen, D.      86 457
Hall, J.W.      285 467
Hallman, W.K.      310 457 486
Hamil, R.      377 457
Hamilos, C.      284 475
Hamilton, D.L.      338 339 457 458
Hamilton, W.D.      227 440
Hammel, E.A.      210 443
Hammerton, M.      403 404 458
Hammond, K.R.      295 304 359 440 458
Hance, B.J.      303 310 312 458
Hangenlocher, K.G.      458
Hansel, C.E.M.      291 446
Hansen, R.D.      407 458
Hansen, W.B.      308 458
Haran, D.      290 342 343 446
Hard-easy effect      325—326 327
Hardin, G.      225 226 458
Harkins, S.      226 465
Harkness, A.R.      317 334 428 440 458
Harris, D.M.      308 458
Harris, J.M.      413 458
Harris, P.      309 396 458
Harris, R.J.      250 458
Harshman, R.A.      250 470
Hart, K.      318 452
Harvey, J.H.      407 487
Hasher, L.      285 286 456 458 459 460 488
Hastie, R.      412 413 415 427 459 474 477 485
Hausch, D.B.      318 459
Hayes, J.R.M.      320 459
Hayes-Roth, B.      289 405 459
Hayes-Roth, R.      289 405 459
Hays, W.L.      399 475
Hazard      13
Hazard, risk and      310
Hazard, T.      321 459
Heidelberger, M.      32 281 459 464
Height, regression to the mean and      253—254
Heilbroner, R.      227 459
Hell, W.      406 455
Hemphill, D.      319 456
Hendrick, C.      284 459
Henkel, R.E.      250 470
Henle, M.      352 459
Henrich, J.      223 459
Henrion, M.      292 305 317 356 459 470
Her      13
Herman, L.M.      388 459
Hersh, R.      17 55 448
Hertwig, R.      349 384 459
Hester, G.      73 455
Heuristics      371 435
Heuristics, fast and frugal      382 383—384
Heuristics, normative theory and      420
Heuristics, statistical      417
Heuristics, Take the Best      384.See also Inductive heuristics
Hilton, D.J.      346 449
Hindenburg      307
Hinds, P.J.      289 459
Hintzman, D.L.      87 209 211 286 459
Hirschleifer, D.      459
Hirshleifer, D.      218 459
Hirt, E.R.      400 449
Historical notes      187
Hoch, H.S.      286 488
Hoch, S.J.      286 297 317 319 322 372 377 396 448 459 460
Hoffman, M.      304 460
Hoffman, P.      208 460
Hoffrage, U.      327 381 384 407 413 455 459 460 468
Hofstadter, D.R.      228 460
Hofstatter, P.R.      285 460
Hogarth, R.M.      274 317 334 358 359 414 415 417 450 460
Holland, B.K.      351 460
Holland, J.H.      416 460
Hollingsworth, H.L.      315 460
Holyoak, K.J.      416 460
Hombas, V.C      146 460
Hooke, R.      74 76 460
Hoorens, V.      309 396 460
Horgan, J.      303 460
Horrocks, J.C.      323 448
Horvath, R.A.      17 460
Horwich, P.      60 460
Hot-hand phenomenon      73—79
Hot-hand phenomenon, luck and      395
Hot-hand phenomenon, Simpson's paradox and      212
Houghton, R.A.      305 460
How We Know What Isn't So (Gilovich)      279
Howard, R.A.      357 359 460
Howard-Pitney, B.      428 443
Howell, W.C.      285 400 460
Howson,C.      118 460
Hoyle.E      103 461
Huberty, C.J.      251 461
Huff, D.      279 461
Hui, C.      408 454
Human life, anthropic principle and      103—108
Humphreys, M.S.      285 467
Humphreys, P.      386 442
Hunt, A.J.      61 71 416 424 440
Hunter, J.E.      250 461
Hybrid inferential statistics      269—272
Hyman, R.      71 457
Hyperprecision effect      329—330
Hypotheses, confirmatory of hypothesis      213—214
Hypotheses, inverse probability and identification of      113—114.See also Null hypothesis
Hypothesis testing, Bayesian reasoning and      138—139 141—142
Hypothesis testing, cumulative use of evidence in      142
Hypothesis testing, statistical      235 244 247—251.See
Iaffaldano, M.T.      339 461
Ibrekk, H.      313 461
Ideal-point model of decision making      358
Ignorance, chance as cover for      52
Illusion of consistency      339—340
Illusion of control      394—396
Illusion of control, decision making and      394—396
Illusory cause-effect relationships      341
Illusory correlation      338—341 353 435 437
Illusory correlation, behavior patterns and personality traits      339—341
Illusory correlation, Simpson's paradox and      212
Illusory correlation, training in statistics and      433
Improbable event, defined      39—51
Improbable event, establishing probability of      45—46
Improbable event, proving probability wrong      50—51
Improbable event, specific events vs. events with specific properties      4—45
Improbable event, ubiquity of improbable      46—50
Incidence statistics, ambiguity in presentation of      275—279
Incompressibility, randomness and      55 56 57—58
Indifference principle      35—37
Individuals, risk-taking and      311—312
Inductive heuristics      371—381
Inductive heuristics, anchoring and adjustment      375—378
Inductive heuristics, availability      371—373
Inductive heuristics, effectiveness of      379—381
Inductive heuristics, representativeness      373—375.See also Heuristics
Inductive probability      30 31 34 35—37
Inductive reasoning      19
Inferential statistics      265
Information, assessment of covariation and      337—338
Information, base rates and case-specific      406—407 410
Information, confidence in decision making and      320—321
Information, consensus      410—412
Information, predictions and validity of      300—301
Information, primacy effects      412—413
Information, risk      303
Inhelder, B.      335 336 461
Initial probabilities, Bayes' rule and      141
Inquisitive prisoner problem      181—182
Insurable events      15
Interestingness, in argument      264
Interquartile range      245
Intransitive dice      207—208
Intransitivity paradoxes      205—208
Intuition in Bayesian analysis      135
Intuition in probabilistic judgment      180 199 429—430 433—434 438
Intuition, decision making and      370—371
Intuition, faulty      427—428
Intuition, population-size and      302—303 331
Intuition, sample-size and      299—302 331 434—435
Intuition, statistical      437
Intuitive probability      24 30 31 34
Intuitive statistics      398—435
Intuitive statistics, Bayesian reasoning and      398—414
Intuitive statistics, efficacy of education and training and      431—433
Intuitive statistics, quality of probability judgments and      414—430
Invariance, decision making and      385
Invariance, principle of      365—366
Inverse power law      238
Inverse probability theorem      See Bayes' rule
Inverse square law      238
Inverted cycloid      98—99
IQ, regression to the mean and      255
Irrationality of decision making behavior      363—364 367—368
Irrationality, demonstrating      122 132—134
Irrationality, discounting base rates and      405
Irrationality, framing effects and      386—387
Irrationality, probabilistic reasoning and      418—424
Irrationality, use of heuristics and      379
Irregularity, randomness and      41 55—56 57
Irwin, F.W.      297 461
Jackson, P.E.      118 472
Jacoby, L.L.      286 314 461
Jaffe, A.J.      279 461
Jarvik, M.E.      73 461
Jastrow, R.      306 479
Jaynes, E.P.      139 461
Jeffrey, L.      313 461
Jeffrey, R.      118 461
Jeffreys, H.      23 36 461
Jemmott, J.B.      309 449 461
Jenkins, H.M.      333 334 336 337 338 439 461 486
Jenkins, J.J.      150 151 461
Jennings, D.      333 336 340 461
Jepson, C.      406 461
Jepson, D.      257 301 302 408 414 416 417 433 472
Johnson, B.B.      310 447
Johnson, D.      67 461
Johnson, E.J.      308 366 375 377 445 461 462 478
Johnson, E.M.      291 401 462
Johnson, M.K.      286 462
Johnson, R.D.      387 465 466
Johnston, W.A      291 462
Jones, C.M.      285 462
Jonides, J.      285 462
Jorland, G.      31 182 186 462
Judgment difficulty      325—326
Judgment, interpretation of results and      251
Judgment, role of observer's      271
Judgment, statistics in support of      264.See also Probabilistic judgment/reasoning
Judgmental probability vs. statistical      30—39
Judgmental probability, defined      34—35
Judicial reasoning, primacy effect and      413
Juslin, P.      326 327 462
Kac, M.      14 15 29 54 58 252 462
Kadane, J.B.      74 76 429 465
Kahan, J.P.      227 462
Kahneman, D.      43 44 122 123 257 290 299 300 301 311 314 318 320 322 342 343 344 346 347 348 352 357 364 365 366 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 379 385 387 389 397 405 406 407 414 415 429 462 463 484
Kahr, A.S.      283 359 444
Kalbfleisch, J.G.      250 463
Kalman, R.      55 475
Kamlah, A.      14 31 463
Kao, S.E      334 486
Kaplan, M.E      359 463
Kaplan, R.J.      400 463
Kareev, Y.      340 463
Kates, R.W.      73 305 444
Katz, R.W.      292 471
Katz, Y      297 440
Keane, M.      374 481
Keeley, S.M.      433 486
Keeney, R.L.      305 357 452 463
Kelley, C.M.      314 317 319 461 463
Kellogg, R.T.      286 463
Kempton, W.      305 463
Keopsell, T.D.      306 446
Kepler's spheres      94—96
Keren, G.B.      317 318 324 395 396 417 463 485
Kerr, N.L.      413 464
Kerr, R.A.      305 463
Kessler, D.A.      358 463
Keynes, J.M.      23 35 152 186 197 361 463
Kidd, J.B.      289 318 463
Kidd, R.E.      405 415 478
Kim, J.I.      322 483
King's folly      147—149
King, J.P.      419 463
King, L.      295 478
Kintsch, W.      293 463
Kirchsteiger, G.      224 452
Kirk, R.      250 463
Kirkpatrick, L.A.      296 463
Klahr.D.      371 464
Klatzky, R.L.      310 314 464
Klein, J.R.      236 267
Kleinbolting, H.      327 381 455
Klotz, M.L.      308 486
Knetsch, J.L.      389 462
Knight, E.H.      356 464
Knobloch, E.      35 464
Knowledge, anchoring and adjustment and      378
Knowledge, chance and      20—21
Knowledge, mathematical      418—419
Knowledge, overconfidence and      319 321 326
Knowledge, probabilistic mental models and      383
Knowledge, probabilistic reasoning and      416
Knowledge, probability and uncertain      37—39
Kochenberger, G.A.      311 453
Koehler, D.J.      289 471
Koestler, A.      28 464
Kogan, N.      312 442 464 486
Kolmogorov, A.N.      56 464
Konold, C.      59 179 395 426 451 476
Koriat, A.      319 321 464
Kramer, G.P.      413 464
Krantz, D.H.      136 257 301 302 308 361 406 408 414 416 417 433 453 461 464 472
Krantz, S.      453
Kreps, D.M.      369 464
Krischer, J.P.      138 464
Krueger, L.      2 13 16 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 236 239 243 247 258 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 455 464
Kubovy, M.      395 464
Kuhberger, A.      386 464
Kuhn, D.      318 334 464
Kunda, Z.      257 290 301 302 309 340 408 414 416 417 433 464 465 472
Kunreuther, H.      283 481
La Logique, ou I'An de Penser (Arnauld)      10
Lachendro, E.      308 486
Lai, C.      321 440
Lamm, H.      312 471
Landman, J.      404 465
Langer, E.J.      296 394 465
Laplace, P.S.      1 14 18 73 74 109 186 234 237 296 298 357 465
Large-number coincidences      100—101
Larkey, P.D.      74 76 429 465
Laskey.K.B.      384 419 468
Latane, B.      226 411 448 465
Lathrop, R.G.      285 465
Lattimer, J.      82 465
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
blank
Реклама
blank
blank
HR
@Mail.ru
       © Электронная библиотека попечительского совета мехмата МГУ, 2004-2019
Электронная библиотека мехмата МГУ | Valid HTML 4.01! | Valid CSS! О проекте