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Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
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Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic ReasoningАвтор: Nickerson R. Аннотация: Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
Язык: Рубрика: Психология /Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц ed2k: ed2k stats Год издания: 2004Количество страниц: 536Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008Операции: Положить на полку |
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Doherty, M.E. 334 449 Dominance 385 Donmell, M.L. 399 449 Donoghue, J.M. 407 458 Doob, L.W. 313 456 Doos, B.R 305 443 Dorner, W.W. 334 486 Doubt 388 Dovalina, I. 407 468 Doviak, M.J. 156 470 Dowie, J. 359 449 DR rule 413 Dracup, C. 250 449 Drug testing, riskless choice models and 358 Du Systeme Social et des Lois Que le Regissent (Lecuyer) 243 DuCharme, M.W. 399 449 DuCharme, W.M. 117 301 399 401 412 415 449 474 478 Due Brevi e Facile Trattati (Peverone) 3 Dugan, P.M. 339 458 Dulany, D.E. 346 449 Dunkelberg, W.C. 309 447 Dunlap, W.P. 250 251 447 Dunning, D. 308 317 319 321 322 396 449 457 Dusoir, A.E. 300 451 Dyson, F.J. 103 450 Earle,T.C 310 447 Earth, coincidence and habitability of 101—102 Econometrics 17 Economics, Bayesian inference and 266 Economics, probability and 16—17 Economics, risk aversion and 310—311 Eddington, A.S. 118 119 450 Eddy, D.M. 404 425 450 Edgeworth, F.Y. 236 450 Edney, J.J. 226 227 450 Education, probability/statistical 435 438 Edwards, W. 19 118 142 269 284 301 320 321 322 350 357 358 359 388 399 400 409 415 450 474 475 479 485 Effective determinism 26 Einhorn, H. 366 456 Einhorn, H.J. 274 317 334 359 414 415 450 Either-or decision making 268 Ekberg, P-H.S. 377 467 Ekeland, I. 26 46 450 Electromagnetic force 100 Elimination-by-aspects model of decision making 358 Ellsberg, D. 274 450 Elstein, A. 359 449 Endowment effect 388—390 Engle, P.L. 290 450 Ennis, B.J. 307 450 Entropy, approximate 55—56 Entropy, principle of maximum 139 Epistemic probability 30 34 Epistemological determinism 26 Epistemological modesty 22 Epistemological probability 30 31 34 Epstein, S. 296 449 463 Epstein, W. 317 455 Equal representation, randomness and 55 56—57 Equivalence, principle of 92—93 Erev, L. 327 328 450 Erikson,K. 312 450 Erlick, D.E. 333 340 450 Error curve 242 243 Error, measurement 244 Error, prediction of 15 error, sampling 244 269 Error, statistical 242—244 Error, type I 77 249 Error, type II 77 249 Essai d'Analyse sur les Jeux de Hasard (Montmort) 10 Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilites (Laplace) 14 Estes,W.K. 34 293 451 Estimate of the Degrees of Mortality of Mankind 233 Estimation of central tendency and variability 284—285 Estimation of costs 287—291 Estimation of covariance 435 Estimation of relative frequencies of events 285—287 Estimation of time 287—291 Estimation, anchoring and adjustment and 375—378 Estimation, availability and 373 Estimation, averaging estimates 292 Estimation, expressing degrees of uncertainty 291—292 Estimation, overestimation 288—289 290—291 Estimation, statistical 246—247 Estimation, tertile procedure 329—330 Estimation, underestimation 288—291.See also Self-evaluation Ethical dilemma 228—230 Evans, J.St. B.T. 299 300 301 302 371 404 428 451 475 Evenden, J. 396 449 Event independence 72—81 Event independence, gambler's fallacy 72—74 Event independence, hot hand/streaky performance 74—79 Event independence, nonaging processes 79—81 Events, cause-effect relationships and 84—85 Events, codable 302 Events, covariation among 336—337 Events, establishing probability of 45—46 Events, estimating relative frequencies of 285—287 Events, events with specific properties vs. specific 40—45 Events, perceiving structure in random 427 Events, responsibility for uncertain 396 Events, risk perception and frequency of 306—307.See also Improbable event Evidence, confidence vs. weight of 303 320 Evidence, directionality of 136—137 Evidence, discounting 399—401 Evidence, weight of 136—137 303 320 Expectation, covariation and 337—338 Expectation, paradoxes of 212—213 Expectation, quantification of 362—365 Expected utility theory 198 360—369 Expected utility theory, alternatives to 369—371 Expected value, St. Petersburg paradox and 187—197 Experts, overconfidence in own judgment 318 Explanation vs. causal 256—260 Explanation, chance as 52 Explanation, levels of 259 Explanation, statistical 251—264 Exponential distribution 245 Exposition de la Theorie des Chances et des Probabilites (Cournot) 17 Extension fallacy 343—349 Faber, R. 1 164 165 168 169 451 Fairness, evolution of 224 Falgout, K. 334 449 Falk, R. 59 86 89 143 155 156 157 158 179 180 212 250 251 350 395 425 441 451 452 457 Fallacy of reification 52—53 Fallacy of the transposed conditional 352 Falling object, time to fall and distance traveled 96—98 Fast and frugal heuristics 382 383—384 Faust, D. 318 452 Federal Drug Administration 358 Fehr, E. 223 224 452 459 480 Feiden, K.L. 358 463 Feldman, J.M 339 452 Feller, W. 29 31 436 452 Ferguson, T.S. 154 452 Fermat-Pascal correspondence 4—10 Ferrell, W.R. 322 452 Fetzer, B.K. 308 474 Feuer, M.A. 317 473 Feynman, R.R 101 452 Fiedler, K. 349 452 Fields, J.M. 290 452 Filling-in hypothesis 347—348 Filskov, S.B. 320 465 Finke, R.A. 72 452 Fire, humans and 101—102 First cosmic number 100—101 Fischer, G.W. 308 322 452 466 Fischer, I. 283 453 Fischhoff, B. 118 138 283 292 305 306 308 310 313 315 316 317 318 319 321 322 323 325 328 343 359 366 373 376 387 388 400 401 402 407 409 415 441 452 453 459 464 466 468 479 481 482 Fischoff, B. 466 Fishburn, P.C. 206 311 444 453 Fisher, A. 225 453 Fisher, J.D. 305 442 Fisher, S. 323 373 469 Fisher, S.D. 323 454 Fisherian inference 265 266—268 Fisk, A.D. 285 453 Flammarion, C. 236 453 Flaton, R. 318 464 Fleming, R. 310 441 Fleming, R.A. 342 453 Flexer, A.J. 285 453 Flynn, J.H. 305 481 Folger, R. 250 453 Fong, G.T. 414 417 433 453 472 Forced-choice questions 391—393 Forced-choice situations 355—356 Forgas, J.P. 308 453 Formula, recursive 58 Forsyth.B. 291 486 Fortune morale 277 357 Fortune physique 277 357 Fouladi, R.T. 77 482 Fourier, J.B.J. 453 Framing effects 385—388 434 Free-riding 224 Freedman, D. 352 449 Freedom, statistical regularity and 27 Frequency distribution 244—246 Frequency interpretation 21 Frequency perception 285—287 Frequency semantics 25 Frequency(ies) 22 Frequency(ies), base rates expressed as 407.See also Relative frequency Frequentist view of probability 32—33 119—120 Frequentist view of probability, application of probability to single events 324 Freudenthal, H. 180 453 Freund, J.E. 173 174 175 176 453 Frick, R.W. 250 453 Friedman, M. 360 453 Frieman, J. 58 483 Frisch, D. 274 454 Fryback, D.G. 117 481 Gachter, S. 224 452 Galanter, E. 198 454 Gallon, E. 243 454 gambler's fallacy 71 72—74 292—293 330 347 427 434 437 gambling 1—2 Gambling, compulsive 299 Gambling, indefinite 151—153 Gambling, probability and 22—23 games of chance 1—2 3—4 Gamow, G. 173 454 Gardenfors, P. 274 454 Gardner, G.T. 313 456 Gardner, M. 83 89 90 94 213 214 454 Gardner, R. 208 224 473 Garry, S.L. 290 473 Gases, kinetic theory of 15 Gatti, G.M. 339 452 Gaussian distribution 242 245 Gauthier, D. 368 454 Gavanski, L 352 408 454 480 Gehrke, E.M. 400 449 Gell-Mann, M. 43 106 454 Gelman, A. 142 269 454 Gender bias in admissions 210—211 Gender ratio probability problem 147—149 General inverse relationship 238 Generality, in argument 264 Generous tit-for-tat strategy, in prisoner's dilemma 218 Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, The (Fisher) 268 Gettys, C.E 117 323 454 482 Gettys, C.V. 373 469 Gibbs, W.W. 288 454 Gibson, B. 297 454 Giere, R.N. 250 454 Gifford, R. 338 458 Gigerenzer, G. 2 13 21 22 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 250 251 265 266 267 269 270 271 280 281 324 327 349 363 375 380 381 382 383 384 397 405 406 407 409 412 413 417 420 421 429 430 442 443 447 454 455 456 459 464 479 Gilbert, J.P. 154 455 Gilden, D.L. 77 395 455 464 Gilhooly, K.J. 346 468 Gillies, D.A. 413 455 Gillman, L. 156 170 171 173 455 Gilovich, T. 67 74 75 76 78 279 336 414 427 455 484 Ginossar, Z. 408 455 Gintis, H. 223 459 Glenberg, A.M. 317 455 Global warming, risk assessment and 305—306 Gluck, M.A. 408 455 Glymour, C. 413 455 Goals, utility maximization and 366—369 Goddard, M. 338 455 Gold, E. 73 455 Goldberg, L.R. 320 417 455 456 Goldberg, S. 160 169 170 456 Golding, S.L. 338 456 Goldman, A.L 414 418 419 424 456 Goldman, R. 428 474 Goldsmith, R.W. 342 415 456 Goldsteen, R. 312 456 Goldsteen,K.S. 312 456 Goldstein, D. 285 456 Goldstein, D.G. 383 384 397 443 447 455 456 Goldstein, I.L. 400 478 Goldstein, W. 366 456 Golf putting, streaky performance in 77—78 Gollob, H.E 22 476 Good, I.J. 1 24 118 212 213 230 248 269 281 360 369 391 456 Goode, F.M. 362 447 Goodie, A.S. 355 371 456 Goodman, B.C. 388 448 Goodness, normative 414 Goodness, substantive 414—415 Goodness-of-fit test 265 Gould, L.C. 313 456 Gould, S.J. 76 416 456 Graesser, A.C. 319 456 Graham, R.L. 57 456 Granhag, P.A. 321 324 440 Grant, D.A. 250 456 Gravity 100 Gravity, coincidence and 91 92—93 Gravity, universal law of gravitation 91 93 Gravity, universe's total mass and 100—101 Gray Wilson, S. 77 455 Grayboys, T.B. 404 445 Green, C.H. 283 306 456 Green, D.M. 272 280 457 Greenbaum, C.W. 250 251 451 Greene, T.C. 305 442 Greening, L. 309 457 Greenstein, G. 102 103 104 105 457 Greenwald, A.G. 142 269 457 Gregory, W.L. 286 457 Grether, D.M. 366 390 402 457 Gribbin, J. 102 103 104 457 Grice, H.P. 346 378 457 Griffin, D. 289 290 405 444 471 Griffin, D.W. 317 319 320 321 322 327 396 407 457 484 Grim determinism 239—240 Gross, P.H. 415 465 Group membership, behavior and 339 Groups, risk-taking and 311—312 Guilmette, J. 318 452 Gulliver's Travels (Swift) 90 Guten, S. 308 458 Guttman, L. 250 457
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