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Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Nickerson R. — Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

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Название: Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

Автор: Nickerson R.

Аннотация:

Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.


Язык: en

Рубрика: Психология/

Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

Год издания: 2004

Количество страниц: 536

Добавлена в каталог: 27.05.2008

Операции: Положить на полку | Скопировать ссылку для форума | Скопировать ID
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Предметный указатель
200% of Nothing (Dewdney)      276
a priori probability      23
Abelson, R.P.      244 250 251 256 263 264 281 415 439 465
Abramson, L.Y.      338 396 439 470
Acceptance-support testing      77
Aces and kings problem      160—170
Actuarial statistics      246—247
Adams, J.K.      316 328 439
Adams, P.A.      316 328 439
Additive-difference model of decision making      358
Adjustment, anchoring and      375—378 390
Admissible scoring rules      391—394
Affirmation of the consequent      109—110
Ajzen, I.      337 407 408 439
Albert, A.      316 391 480
Albright, L.      426 480
Aleatory contracts      15
Aleatory probability      30 31 32 34 45
Alfidi, J.      314 439
Alicke, M.D.      289 439
Allais, M.      185 199 312 357 439
Allan, L.      338 455
Allan, L.G.      337 439
Allen, F.W.      312 439
Alloy, F.B.      439
Alloy, L.B.      332 337 338 396 439
Allwood, C.M.      321 324 440
Alpert, M.      317 440
Alpha      248—249
Altruism, development of      212
Altruism, prisoner's dilemma and      217 220
Altruism, social dilemmas and evidence of      228
Altruism, ultimatum game and      224—225
Alvarez, L.W.      89 440
Amabile, T.M.      333 336 340 461
Ambiguity in problem statements      425
Ambiguity in statistical assertions      274—279
Analysis of variance      266
anchoring      375—378 390
Anderson, J.R.      335 380 386 409 425 440
Anderson, J.T.      55 473
Anderson, N.H.      284 293 440
Andreoli, V.      412 485
annuities      15 233
Anthropic (cosmological) principle      103—108
Anthropic (cosmological) principle, strong form      105—106
Anthropic (cosmological) principle, testability of      106—108
Anthropic (cosmological) principle, weak form      104—105
Apostolakis, G.      305 440
Applicability of Bayesian reasoning      138—139
Approximate entropy      55—56
Arbuthnot, J.      240 440
Argument, statistics in service of      263—264
Argument, strength of      22
Arkes, H.R.      293 294 295 317 320 321 334 359 440
Arrow, K.J.      206 227 360 368 440
Ars Conjectandi (Bernoulli)      11 12
Articulation, in argument      264
Asher, S.J.      87 459
Assassination coincidences      82—83
Assessment, risk      292 303—304 305 313—314 331
Assimilation effect      425
Assumptions, in probability problems      156—157 161—165 169—171 173—175
Astragali      2
Astronomy      15
Attention, role played in frequency perception and retention      286—287
Attneave, F.      285 328 440
Attribution, vs. prediction      411
Availability      371—373 380
Availability, principle of      291
Average family-average child puzzle      150—151
Avinon, O.      86 457
Avis, N.E.      407 468
Axelrod, R.      217 227 440
Axiomatic theory of probability      39
Axiomatization of probability theory      33
Ayala, F.J.      47 440
Ayer, A.J.      23 30 37 440
Ayton, P.      61 71 416 424 440
Babad, E.      297 440
Baca, S.      323 373 469
Baconian probability theory      422—423
Bahrick, H.P.      388 459
Bakan, D.      248 250 441
Baker, J.D.      137 441
Baker, T.B.      320 485
Ball, W.W.R.      173 441
Bar-Hillel, M.      131 402 441 451 468
Bar-Hillel, M.A.      73 155 156 157 158 212 290 300 301 302 352 407 415 425 441
Barber, B.      236 441
Bargaining, anchoring and adjustment and      378
Baril, G.L.      250 441
Baron, J.      274 317 352 370 402 428 441 454
Barrow, J.D.      51 101 102 103 206 441
Bartecchi, C.E.      304 441
base rates      401—402 414 434
Base rates, consensus information and      411
Base rates, discounting      374—375 399 402—405 409—410
Base rates, discounting, reconciling      409—410
Base rates, personal      405
Base rates, population      405
Base rates, prior probabilities and      122—136
Base rates, relevance of      134—136
Base rates, use of      405—409
Base-rate neglect      374—375 399 402—405 409—410
Basketball, hot-hand phenomenon and      74—79
Bassette      13
Bassock, M.      401 484
Batting averages, regression to the mean and      254
Baum, A.      305 310 441 442
Bauman, L.J.      308 441
Bayes' rule      25 110—114
Bayes' rule, application of      114—117 417—418
Bayes' rule, application of, cab-color problem      122—132
Bayes' rule, application of, disease diagnosis and      132—134
Bayes' rule, conditional probabilities and      111 116—117
Bayes' rule, justifiability of      118—122
Bayes' rule, justifiability of, finding prior probabilities      119—120
Bayes' rule, justifiability of, sensitivity to prior probabilities      120—122
Bayes' rule, relevance of      134—136
Bayes' rule, weight of evidence and      136—137
Bayes, T.      109 442
Bayesian inference      265 266 269 270
Bayesian reasoning      117—118 398—414
Bayesian reasoning as normative model      413—414
Bayesian reasoning, advantages of      140—142
Bayesian reasoning, advantages of, cumulative use of evidence in hypothesis testing      142
Bayesian reasoning, advantages of, explicit problem representation      141
Bayesian reasoning, advantages of, insensitivity to initial probabilities      141
Bayesian reasoning, base rates and      401—409
Bayesian reasoning, consensus information      410—412
Bayesian reasoning, conservatism in probabilistic judgments      399—401
Bayesian reasoning, decision making and      117—118 360
Bayesian reasoning, information presentation in frequency terms and      413—414
Bayesian reasoning, limitations of      137—140
Bayesian reasoning, limitations of, conditions of applicability      138—139
Bayesian reasoning, limitations of, extra-Bayesian requirements      139—140
Bayesian reasoning, overconfidence and      322—323
Bayesian reasoning, primacy effects and      412—413
Bayesian reasoning, reconciling conservatism and base-rate discounting in      409—410
Beach, L.R.      284 285 301 333 334 336 340 342 347 361 399 402 407 408 417 442 446 474
Beatty, J.      2 13 21 25 26 34 45 234 235 239 243 247 265 266 269 270 280 281 375 409 413 420 421 430 442 455
Beck, D.E.      306 446
Becker, G.M.      367 442
Behavioral patterns, correlation and      339—341
Belief functions      25
Belief-revision tool      399 434
Bell, E.T.      9 442
Bell, P.A.      305 442
Beltrami, E.      59 442
Bem,D.J.      312 442
Bennett, D.J.      2 10 60 442
Berg, J.      224 366 442
Berger, J.O.      251 359 442
Berkeley, D.      386 442
Berl, J.      358 442
Berlinski, D.      93 442
Bernoulli, D.      277 442
Bernoulli, J.      11 198 442
Bernstein, P.L.      3 12 233 243 254 304 357 442
Berretty, P.M.      384 443
Berry, D.A.      251 442
Berry, R.J.      236 443
Bertrand's paradox      199—205
Bertrand, J.      186 443
Beta      249
Betting semantics      25
Beyth-Marom, R.      118 138 291 337 401 409 443 452
Bezembinder, T.G.      362 447
Bias in estimation      286 287
Bias in sample      279
Bias, anchoring and adjustment and      378
Bias, availability and      373
Bias, Bayesian reasoning and      138
Bias, confirmation      412 437
Bias, expectations and      337
Bias, heuristics and      379
Bias, normative theory and      420
Bias, overconfidence and      324
Biased focus      333—337
Bickel, P.J.      210 443
Big Dig      287—288
Billings, R.S.      372 443
Binary rule      73 293—294
Binder, A.      77 443
Binomial distribution      242 260
Biology, statistics and      236
Biometrics      235
Biometrika      265
Birdsall, T.G.      280 483
Birnbaum, M.H.      413 443
Birthdays, chance coinciding of      87—88
Bjork, R.A.      314 461
Black, D.      206 283 443
Blackburn, S.      136 443
Blackshaw, L.      323 468
Blair, D.C      323 443
Blank, H.      406 455
Bloom, S.      290 469
Blumer.C      321 440
Blyth, C.      208 443
Blyth, C.R.      208 443
Blythe, P.W.      384 443
Boldizar, J.P.      290 469
Bolin, B.      305 443
Book of Games of Chance, The (Cardano)      96
Boorstin, D.J.      95 443
Borastein, B.H.      327 378 445 450
Borges, B.      383 443
Borgida, E.      345 402 405 406 407 410 411 428 443 444 458 470 472
Boston Globe      41 287
Bounded rationality      382
Bower, G.H.      285 308 309 408 443 453 455 488
Bowles, S.      223 459
Box, J.F.      268 443
Boyd, N.E      364 466
Boyd, R.      217 223 443 459
Bradbury, J.A.      310 443
Bradley, J.V.      396 443
Bradshaw, H.      302 371 451
Braithwaite, R.B.      328 444
Brams, S.J.      206 444
Brekke, N.      402 407 443 444
Brenner, M.W.      291 444
Brewer, J.K.      250 283 444
Bridge hand, small-probability events and      47—48 48—49
Briggs, G.E.      400 482
Brody, C.J.      310 444
Brown, R.A.      283 306 456
Brown, R.V.      283 359 444
Browne, M.W.      251 444
Brownian motion      15
Brubaker, E.R.      227 444
Bruderman, M.      309 396 444
Brun, W.      387 483
Bryant, D.S.      322 486
Buchanan, J.M.      363 444
Buckle, H.T.      27 239 444
Budescu, D.      73 441
Budescu, D.V.      283 291 309 317 327 328 395 396 417 444 450 453 476 486
Buede, D.M.      357 486
Buehler, R.      289 290 405 444 471
Buffon, G.L.L.      186 444
Bullock, S.      355 371 456
Bunge.M.      119 361 444
Burke, J.G.      307 444
Burnham, D.W.      81 472
Burns, K.E.      322 486
Burton, I.      73 305 444
Busemeyer, J.R.      285 444
Bushyhead, J.B.      317 406 446
Butler, C.      95 444
Buunk, B.P.      309 396 460
Byram, S.J.      289 445
Cab-color problem      407
Cab-color problem, Bayesian analysis and      122—132
Cab-color problem, representativeness and      374—375
Cacioppo, J.T.      428 474
Calibration      315 316 317 415
Calibration, contraction bias and      328
Calibration, curves      315—316 317
Calibration, overconfidence and      321
Camburn, A.      339 452
Camerer, C.      223 338 407 445 459
Campbell, D.T.      250 487
Campos, F.T.      399 400 469
Cannon, J.T.      250 441
Cantor, N.      428 480
Card problems, aces and kings      160—170
Card problems, three cards      157—160
Card problems, two aces and a jack      170—176
Cardoze, S.      407 468
Carlin, J.      142 269 454
Carlson, B.W.      343 345 375 445 488
Carnap, R.      19 31 35 36 37 445
Carpenter, K.M.      286 457
Carroll, J.B.      295 445
Carroll, J.S.      413 464
Carsten, L.M.      466
Carter, B.      102 445
Cartwright, N.      442
Carver, R.      250 445
Case-specific information, base rates and      406—407 410
Cassells, W.      404 445
Catania, A.C      71 445
Categories, natural      374
Categories, natural-kind      408
Categorization      232 374
Causal efficacy      263—264
Causal factors, base rates and      407—408
Causal factors, chance as cover for undetermined physical      51—52
Causal factors, search for      49—50
Causal laws, Baconian probability theory and      422—423
Cause-effect assumptions, covariation and      337—338
Cause-effect relationships      84—85 86
Cause-effect relationships, illusory      341
Cavanagh, R.C.      401 462
Central limit theorem      245—246
Central tendency, estimates of      284—285
Certainty      356
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