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Shafer G. — The Art of Causal Conjecture
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Название: The Art of Causal Conjecture
Автор: Shafer G.
Аннотация: In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences — medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence — must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
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Рубрика: Математика /
Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц
ed2k: ed2k stats
Год издания: 1996
Количество страниц: 511
Добавлена в каталог: 22.10.2010
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Предметный указатель
Galton, Francis 325
Gambler's ruin 4 379—384
gambling 92—98 253—257 261
Game tree 62
Generality of causal relations 316—319 336—337
Given 429
Glymour, Clark see "Spirtes Peter"
Godambe, V.P. 253 329
Goldman, Noreen 320
Good, I.J. 147
Granger, C.W. 189
Graph 385—391
Graph, connected 385
Graph, directed 386—391 see
Graph, directed acyclic 386 see
Graph, undirected 385 see
Greatest lower bound 394
Grounding 294—297
Habel, Annegret 378
Happening 37 47—49 305
Harman, H.H. 460
Hasse diagram 230 395
Head of Humean chain 45
Head of Humean event 45 246
Head of probability conditional 478
Head of simple Humean event 43
Hein, Piet xvii
Hidden Markov model 369
Hilton, Denis J. 303
Hinkley, David V. 329
Holland, Paul W., counterfactuals 108
Holland, Paul W., intervention 345
Holland, Paul W., Lord's paradox 322
Holland, Paul W., randomized experiments 321
Hope, Keith 460
House 269
Hume, David 2
Humean chain 44 235
Humean event 23—26 43—49 246
Humean event as pair of partial cuts 46 246
Humean event, divergent 47 246
Humean event, effect of 311
Humean event, full 47 246
Humean event, global 47 246
Humean event, initial 47 246
Humean event, proper 47 246
Humean event, simple 34 43 246
Humean tree 35 283
Humean variable 53—54 246
Humean variable, concomitants of 54 246
Humean variable, global 54 246
Humean variable, initial 54 246
Humean variable, resolvent of 54 246
Humphreys, Paul, common causes 133
Humphreys, Paul, events as causes 13 62 153
Humphreys, Paul, variables as causes 189
Huygens, Christiaan, manuscript in translation 380—384
Huygens, Christiaan, oldest extant event trees 4 61
Huygens, Christiaan, problem of gambler's ruin 363 365 379
Hypergraph 377—378
Identification 51 53 402
Implication of constancy 216
Independence see also "Formal independence"
Independence diagram 341
Independence for families of variables 182—186
Independence for Moivrean events 10 114 118
Independence for Moivrean variables 12 170 174 268
Independence for partitions 179 181 443
Independence, conditional 431 see
Independence, modulo 129 177
Independence, modulo in mean 177
Independence, posterior 128 175
Independence, proper 431 432
Independence, sample-space 14 425—452
Independence, stability under refinement 292
Independence, unconditional 426
Independence, weak 119 130 174
Indirect effect 458
Indirect effect, causal interpretation 345
Influence see "To influence"
Influence diagram 366
Ingersoll, Jonathan E., Jr. 425
Initial subgraph 347 387 471
Interactive fork 151
Intersection axiom 452
Intervention 318 345
Inus condition 44
Iterated expectation 81 85 413
Iwasaki, Yumi 378
Jech, Thomas J. 229
Jeffrey, Richard 153
Jeffreys's law 406
Joereskog, K. 462
Joint causal diagram 20—23 339—342
Joint diagram 394—395
Joint independence 175
Kang, Kathy M. 453 456
Kemeny, J.G. 62
Kendall, M.G. 42
Kenny, David A. 317
Khinchin, A. 406
Kohli, K. 380
Kolomogorov, A.N., axioms for probability 6
Kolomogorov, A.N., computable sequences 111
Kolomogorov, A.N., neutrality of mathematics 7
Kolomogorov, A.N., rigor of sample-space framework 61
Laface, Pietro 369
Laplace's law of succession 362
Latent variable 352 460
Lattice 395
Lauritzen, Steffen L., chain-graph diagrams 476
Lauritzen, Steffen L., characterization of d-separation 389
Lauritzen, Steffen L., independence and formal independence in binary tree 118
Lauritzen, Steffen L., irrelevance of construction ordering 468
Law of Large Numbers 98—101 272—274 405—406
Leaf 385
Learner, Edward E. 318 357
Least upper bound 394
Least-squares linear prediction 419
Lehmann, E.L. 329
Lewis, David 108
Lieberson, Stanley 320
Lifting of Humean events 284
Lifting of Moivrean events and variables 288
Linear function 418
Linear identification 53 310 314 402
Linear prediction 333 419
Linear prediction, causal interpretation 334—335
Linear regression 418—423
Linear regression, causal interpretation 314
Linear regression, error 419
Linear relevance diagram 466 475
Linear relevance diagram, causal interpretation 347 348—349
Linear relevance diagram, irrelevance of construction ordering 468
Linear sign 12 216 222—225
Linear sign as causal interpretation of linear prediction 335
Linear sign in martingale tree 258 268
Linear sign, joint and individual 338
Linear sign, scored 225
Linear sign, stability under refinement 292
Linear sign, weak 223
Linear subsequence 209
Linear-sign diagram 339
Linearity of expectation 84 403
Linearity of expected value 77
Linearly accounting for 429
Long run 98—101
Longitudinal evidence 13 322 343
Lord's paradox 322—328
Lord, Frederick M. 322
Lower expectation 269
Lower expected value 269
Lower probability 272
Luce, R. Duncan 62
Mackie, J.L. 43 44
Magnusson, Lena 377
Manipulation 318
Maranto, C. 22
Marginal 478
Marini, Margaret Mooney 357
Markov chain 64 201—202
Markov chain, state graph for 363—365
Markov diagram 466 472
Markov diagram as dependence diagram 366 482
Markov diagram, causal interpretation 346 349—351 472
Markov diagram, functional 350
Markov diagram, irrelevance of construction ordering 468
Markov diagram, temporal 350—351 366
Martin-Loef, Per, computable sequences 111
Martin-Loef, Per, type theory 360 371 373 374
Martingale 79—83 257—261
Martingale difference sequence 209
Martingale sequence 209
Martingale tree 247—274
Martingale tree, Doob 262
Martingale, admissible 267
Martingale, determinate 80
Martingale, evaluates Moivrean variable 79
Martingale, expectation of 80
Martingale, local component 260
Martingale, neutral 260
Martingale, resolution of 80
Martingale, uncorrelated 258
McLaughlin, Robert 133
Mean effect 305 312
Mean effect, variance-adjusted 310 312
Mean relevance diagram 466 473—474
Mean relevance diagram, causal interpretation 346 351—352
Mean tracking diagram 339
Mediation 317
Mixture 295 297
Moivrean event 10 33 235
Moivrean event in causal relations 10
Moivrean event, certain 35
Moivrean event, impossible 34 35
Moivrean event, incompatible 37
Moivrean event, interpreted as Moivrean variable 49
Moivrean event, matched to situation 33
Moivrean event, proper 37
Moivrean event, sure 34
Moivrean variable 11 49—53 235
Moivrean variable in causal relations 11—12
Moivrean variable, constant 50
Moivrean variable, identifies cut 51
Moivrean variable, latent 352
Moivrean variable, not a cause 336 338
Moivrean variable, numerical 49
Moivrean variable, partial 49 235
Moivrean variable, uncorrelated 78
Monitoring 360
Monotonic function 80 259
Moral graph 388
Morgan, Mary S. 357
Mother 34 233 386
Nature 2 9
Neighbor 385
Nondescendant 386
Nordstroem, Bengt 371 377
NUMBER 399
Observer 8
Oldford, R. Wayne 190
Oliver, Robert M. 366
Olmsted, S.M. 363
Parent 386
Partial correlation 429 442
Partial ordering 393
Partial, nonrestrictive use of 41
Partially ordered set 393
Partition 39 50—53 396
Partition of variance and covariance in path diagram 457
Partition of variance and covariance, relative to cut 85
Partition of variance and covariance, relative to happening of Moivrean event 307
Partition of variance and covariance, relative to steps in the tree 78
Pascal, Blaise 61 365 379—380
Path (in event tree) 234
Path (in event tree), partial 235
Path (in graph) 385
Path analysis 458
Path diagram 454—462
Path diagram with cycles 466
Path diagram, causal interpretation 21—22 342—345 462
Path diagram, completely untangled 343 458
Path diagram, error-untangled 343 458
Path diagram, generalized 462—466
Path diagram, reduced 461
Path diagram, scaled 461
Path diagram, standardized 457
Payoff 256
Pearl, Judea, automated model search 454
Pearl, Judea, axioms for independence 187 450 452
Pearl, Judea, Bayes nets 366
Pearl, Judea, functional dependence 472
Pearl, Judea, intervention 345
Pearl, Judea, Moivrean variables as causes 338
Pearl, Judea, other methods for handling uncertainty 106
Pearl, Judea, subtle use of covariates 326
Pearson, Egon S. 42
Perry, John 375
Poincare, Henri 9
Pratt, John W. 330
Precedence for cuts 40 238
Precedence for families of Moivrean variables 53
Precedence for Moivrean events 10 38
Precedence for Moivrean variables 12 50 244
Precedence for partial cuts 41 238
Precedence for partitions 52
Precedence for situations 38 233
Predecessor 466
Prediction in mean 333
Prediction in mean, causal interpretation 334—335
Prequential principle 107
Priestley, H.A. 393
Principle of the common cause 121—128
Probabilistic cause 160—162
probability 267
Probability assignment 69
Probability catalog 81
Probability catalog, local 265
Probability conditional 478
probability distribution 74 400
Probability distribution, abstract 479
Probability graph 361—363
Probability in a situation 64 68
Probability measure 399
Probability measure, strictly positive 399
Probability of Moivrean event 10
Probability prediction 333
Probability prediction, causal interpretation 334—335
Probability space 399
Probability space, strictly positive 399
Probability tree 3—7 64
Probability tree, binary 117
Probability tree, strictly positive 70
Probability vector 264
Probability, conditional 64 73
Probability, diversity of uses 108—110
Probability, interpretation 91 253
Probability, lower and upper 272
Probabilize see "To probabilize"
Proxy variable 320
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