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Shafer G. — The Art of Causal Conjecture
Shafer G. — The Art of Causal Conjecture



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Название: The Art of Causal Conjecture

Автор: Shafer G.

Аннотация:

In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences — medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence — must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.


Язык: en

Рубрика: Математика/

Статус предметного указателя: Готов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

Год издания: 1996

Количество страниц: 511

Добавлена в каталог: 22.10.2010

Операции: Положить на полку | Скопировать ссылку для форума | Скопировать ID
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Предметный указатель
Galton, Francis      325
Gambler's ruin      4 379—384
gambling      92—98 253—257 261
Game tree      62
Generality of causal relations      316—319 336—337
Given      429
Glymour, Clark      see "Spirtes Peter"
Godambe, V.P.      253 329
Goldman, Noreen      320
Good, I.J.      147
Granger, C.W.      189
Graph      385—391
Graph, connected      385
Graph, directed      386—391 see
Graph, directed acyclic      386 see
Graph, undirected      385 see
Greatest lower bound      394
Grounding      294—297
Habel, Annegret      378
Happening      37 47—49 305
Harman, H.H.      460
Hasse diagram      230 395
Head of Humean chain      45
Head of Humean event      45 246
Head of probability conditional      478
Head of simple Humean event      43
Hein, Piet      xvii
Hidden Markov model      369
Hilton, Denis J.      303
Hinkley, David V.      329
Holland, Paul W., counterfactuals      108
Holland, Paul W., intervention      345
Holland, Paul W., Lord's paradox      322
Holland, Paul W., randomized experiments      321
Hope, Keith      460
House      269
Hume, David      2
Humean chain      44 235
Humean event      23—26 43—49 246
Humean event as pair of partial cuts      46 246
Humean event, divergent      47 246
Humean event, effect of      311
Humean event, full      47 246
Humean event, global      47 246
Humean event, initial      47 246
Humean event, proper      47 246
Humean event, simple      34 43 246
Humean tree      35 283
Humean variable      53—54 246
Humean variable, concomitants of      54 246
Humean variable, global      54 246
Humean variable, initial      54 246
Humean variable, resolvent of      54 246
Humphreys, Paul, common causes      133
Humphreys, Paul, events as causes      13 62 153
Humphreys, Paul, variables as causes      189
Huygens, Christiaan, manuscript in translation      380—384
Huygens, Christiaan, oldest extant event trees      4 61
Huygens, Christiaan, problem of gambler's ruin      363 365 379
Hypergraph      377—378
Identification      51 53 402
Implication of constancy      216
Independence      see also "Formal independence"
Independence diagram      341
Independence for families of variables      182—186
Independence for Moivrean events      10 114 118
Independence for Moivrean variables      12 170 174 268
Independence for partitions      179 181 443
Independence, conditional      431 see
Independence, modulo      129 177
Independence, modulo in mean      177
Independence, posterior      128 175
Independence, proper      431 432
Independence, sample-space      14 425—452
Independence, stability under refinement      292
Independence, unconditional      426
Independence, weak      119 130 174
Indirect effect      458
Indirect effect, causal interpretation      345
Influence      see "To influence"
Influence diagram      366
Ingersoll, Jonathan E., Jr.      425
Initial subgraph      347 387 471
Interactive fork      151
Intersection axiom      452
Intervention      318 345
Inus condition      44
Iterated expectation      81 85 413
Iwasaki, Yumi      378
Jech, Thomas J.      229
Jeffrey, Richard      153
Jeffreys's law      406
Joereskog, K.      462
Joint causal diagram      20—23 339—342
Joint diagram      394—395
Joint independence      175
Kang, Kathy M.      453 456
Kemeny, J.G.      62
Kendall, M.G.      42
Kenny, David A.      317
Khinchin, A.      406
Kohli, K.      380
Kolomogorov, A.N., axioms for probability      6
Kolomogorov, A.N., computable sequences      111
Kolomogorov, A.N., neutrality of mathematics      7
Kolomogorov, A.N., rigor of sample-space framework      61
Laface, Pietro      369
Laplace's law of succession      362
Latent variable      352 460
Lattice      395
Lauritzen, Steffen L., chain-graph diagrams      476
Lauritzen, Steffen L., characterization of d-separation      389
Lauritzen, Steffen L., independence and formal independence in binary tree      118
Lauritzen, Steffen L., irrelevance of construction ordering      468
Law of Large Numbers      98—101 272—274 405—406
Leaf      385
Learner, Edward E.      318 357
Least upper bound      394
Least-squares linear prediction      419
Lehmann, E.L.      329
Lewis, David      108
Lieberson, Stanley      320
Lifting of Humean events      284
Lifting of Moivrean events and variables      288
Linear function      418
Linear identification      53 310 314 402
Linear prediction      333 419
Linear prediction, causal interpretation      334—335
Linear regression      418—423
Linear regression, causal interpretation      314
Linear regression, error      419
Linear relevance diagram      466 475
Linear relevance diagram, causal interpretation      347 348—349
Linear relevance diagram, irrelevance of construction ordering      468
Linear sign      12 216 222—225
Linear sign as causal interpretation of linear prediction      335
Linear sign in martingale tree      258 268
Linear sign, joint and individual      338
Linear sign, scored      225
Linear sign, stability under refinement      292
Linear sign, weak      223
Linear subsequence      209
Linear-sign diagram      339
Linearity of expectation      84 403
Linearity of expected value      77
Linearly accounting for      429
Long run      98—101
Longitudinal evidence      13 322 343
Lord's paradox      322—328
Lord, Frederick M.      322
Lower expectation      269
Lower expected value      269
Lower probability      272
Luce, R. Duncan      62
Mackie, J.L.      43 44
Magnusson, Lena      377
Manipulation      318
Maranto, C.      22
Marginal      478
Marini, Margaret Mooney      357
Markov chain      64 201—202
Markov chain, state graph for      363—365
Markov diagram      466 472
Markov diagram as dependence diagram      366 482
Markov diagram, causal interpretation      346 349—351 472
Markov diagram, functional      350
Markov diagram, irrelevance of construction ordering      468
Markov diagram, temporal      350—351 366
Martin-Loef, Per, computable sequences      111
Martin-Loef, Per, type theory      360 371 373 374
Martingale      79—83 257—261
Martingale difference sequence      209
Martingale sequence      209
Martingale tree      247—274
Martingale tree, Doob      262
Martingale, admissible      267
Martingale, determinate      80
Martingale, evaluates Moivrean variable      79
Martingale, expectation of      80
Martingale, local component      260
Martingale, neutral      260
Martingale, resolution of      80
Martingale, uncorrelated      258
McLaughlin, Robert      133
Mean effect      305 312
Mean effect, variance-adjusted      310 312
Mean relevance diagram      466 473—474
Mean relevance diagram, causal interpretation      346 351—352
Mean tracking diagram      339
Mediation      317
Mixture      295 297
Moivrean event      10 33 235
Moivrean event in causal relations      10
Moivrean event, certain      35
Moivrean event, impossible      34 35
Moivrean event, incompatible      37
Moivrean event, interpreted as Moivrean variable      49
Moivrean event, matched to situation      33
Moivrean event, proper      37
Moivrean event, sure      34
Moivrean variable      11 49—53 235
Moivrean variable in causal relations      11—12
Moivrean variable, constant      50
Moivrean variable, identifies cut      51
Moivrean variable, latent      352
Moivrean variable, not a cause      336 338
Moivrean variable, numerical      49
Moivrean variable, partial      49 235
Moivrean variable, uncorrelated      78
Monitoring      360
Monotonic function      80 259
Moral graph      388
Morgan, Mary S.      357
Mother      34 233 386
Nature      2 9
Neighbor      385
Nondescendant      386
Nordstroem, Bengt      371 377
NUMBER      399
Observer      8
Oldford, R. Wayne      190
Oliver, Robert M.      366
Olmsted, S.M.      363
Parent      386
Partial correlation      429 442
Partial ordering      393
Partial, nonrestrictive use of      41
Partially ordered set      393
Partition      39 50—53 396
Partition of variance and covariance in path diagram      457
Partition of variance and covariance, relative to cut      85
Partition of variance and covariance, relative to happening of Moivrean event      307
Partition of variance and covariance, relative to steps in the tree      78
Pascal, Blaise      61 365 379—380
Path (in event tree)      234
Path (in event tree), partial      235
Path (in graph)      385
Path analysis      458
Path diagram      454—462
Path diagram with cycles      466
Path diagram, causal interpretation      21—22 342—345 462
Path diagram, completely untangled      343 458
Path diagram, error-untangled      343 458
Path diagram, generalized      462—466
Path diagram, reduced      461
Path diagram, scaled      461
Path diagram, standardized      457
Payoff      256
Pearl, Judea, automated model search      454
Pearl, Judea, axioms for independence      187 450 452
Pearl, Judea, Bayes nets      366
Pearl, Judea, functional dependence      472
Pearl, Judea, intervention      345
Pearl, Judea, Moivrean variables as causes      338
Pearl, Judea, other methods for handling uncertainty      106
Pearl, Judea, subtle use of covariates      326
Pearson, Egon S.      42
Perry, John      375
Poincare, Henri      9
Pratt, John W.      330
Precedence for cuts      40 238
Precedence for families of Moivrean variables      53
Precedence for Moivrean events      10 38
Precedence for Moivrean variables      12 50 244
Precedence for partial cuts      41 238
Precedence for partitions      52
Precedence for situations      38 233
Predecessor      466
Prediction in mean      333
Prediction in mean, causal interpretation      334—335
Prequential principle      107
Priestley, H.A.      393
Principle of the common cause      121—128
Probabilistic cause      160—162
probability      267
Probability assignment      69
Probability catalog      81
Probability catalog, local      265
Probability conditional      478
probability distribution      74 400
Probability distribution, abstract      479
Probability graph      361—363
Probability in a situation      64 68
Probability measure      399
Probability measure, strictly positive      399
Probability of Moivrean event      10
Probability prediction      333
Probability prediction, causal interpretation      334—335
Probability space      399
Probability space, strictly positive      399
Probability tree      3—7 64
Probability tree, binary      117
Probability tree, strictly positive      70
Probability vector      264
Probability, conditional      64 73
Probability, diversity of uses      108—110
Probability, interpretation      91 253
Probability, lower and upper      272
Probabilize      see "To probabilize"
Proxy variable      320
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