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Paulos J.A. Ч A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
Paulos J.A. Ч A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market

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Ќазвание: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market

јвтор: Paulos J.A.


In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, best-selling author John Allen Paulos demonstrates what the tools of mathematics can tell us about the vagaries of the stock market. Employing his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes and puzzles (and even a film treatment), Paulos addresses every thinking reader's curiosity about the market: Is it efficient? Is it rational? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? What light do fractals, network theory, and common psychological foibles shed on investor behavior? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? Can a deeper knowledge of mathematics help beat the odds? All of these questions are explored with the engaging erudition that made Paulos's A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper and Innumeracy favorites with both armchair mathematicians and readers who want to think like them. Paulos also shares the cautionary tale of his own long and disastrous love affair with WorldCom. In the tradition of Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run, this wry and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets Ч or knows someone who does.

язык: en

–убрика: ћатематика/ѕопул€рные издани€/

—татус предметного указател€: √отов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

√од издани€: 2003

 оличество страниц: 216

ƒобавлена в каталог: 30.04.2005

ќперации: ѕоложить на полку | —копировать ссылку дл€ форума | —копировать ID
ѕредметный указатель
"Blow up" investor      118
"Butterfly effect" of nonlinear systems      174
"Dominance" principle, game theory      198
"Double-dip" recession      46
"Efficient frontier" of portfolios (Markowitz)      157
"Flocking effect" Internet      178
"Ghosts" investors      118
"Head and shoulders" pattern      46
"Maximization of expected value" principle      198
"Single index model" (Sharpe)      159
"The Imp in the Bottle" (Stevenson)      94
A New Kind of Science (Wolfram)      170Ч171
A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street (Lo and MacKinlay)      48
A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Malkiel)      48 62
Accounting practices, assumptions vs. Practices      115
Accounting practices, auditors and      115Ч116
Accounting practices, comparing corporate and personal accounting      25
Accounting practices, conflict of interest and      111Ч112
Accounting practices, deciphering company financial health      111
Accounting practices, Enron      112
Accounting practices, reforms      114
Accounting practices, transparency      115
Accounting practices, vagueness and subjectivity of      114
Accounting practices, value investing and      110
Accounting practices, worldcom (WCOM)      112
Accounting scandals      see also "Fraud"
Accounting scandals, BenfordТs Law and      74
Accounting scandals, deciphering company financial health      111
Accounting scandals, Efficient Market Hypothesis and      63
Accounting scandals, psychology of cover ups      24
Accounting scandals, volatility and      15
Accounting scandals, WCOM fraud      200
Al Qaeda      124
Albert, Reka      178Ч179
Anchoring effect, financial numbers and      20
Anchoring effect, number experiments      19Ч20
Anchoring effect, online chatroom example      32
Arithmetic mean      see also "Mean value"
Arithmetic mean, IPO purchases/sales      96Ч98
Arithmetic mean, outstripping geometric mean rate of return      99
Arthur Andersen      112
Arthur, W. Brian      9
Auditors      115Ч116
Aumann, Robert      10 165
Availability error      21
Average values, compared with distribution of incomes      132Ч133
Average values, risk as variance from      136Ч137
Averages, average return compared with median return      99
Averages, average value compared with distribution of incomes      132Ч133
Averages, buy-sell rules and      43
Averages, outguessing average guess      6Ч7
Averages, risk as variance from average value      136Ч137
Averaging down      13Ч14
Bachelier, Louis      59 122
Bak, Per      178Ч179
Barabasi, Albert-Lazlo      178Ч179
Bartiromo, Maria      199
Bear markets, investor self-descriptions and      58
Bear markets, shorting and distorting strategy in      35Ч36
Benford, Frank      73
BenfordТs law      72Ч74
BenfordТs Law, applying to corporate fraud      74
BenfordТs Law, background of      73
BenfordТs Law, frequent occurrence of numbers governed by      73Ч74
Bernoulli, Daniel      148
Beta (B) values, causes of variations in      161
Beta (B) values, comparing market against individual stocks or funds      160Ч161
Beta (B) values, strengths and weaknesses of      161Ч162
Beta (B) values, technique for finding      161
Beta (B) values, volatility and      160
big bang      16
Billiards, as example of nonlinear system      172Ч173
Binary system      71
Biorhythm theory      39
Black Ч Scholes option formula      122
Black, Fischer      121Ч122 129
Blackjack strategies      50Ч51
Blackledge, Todd      108
Blue chip companies, P/E ratio of      101
Bogle, John      60
Bonds will not necessarily continue to be outperformed by stocks      145Ч146
Bonds, Barry      108
Bonds, GreenspanТs impact on bond market      86
Bonds, history of stocks outperforming      143Ч145
bookkeeping      see "Accounting practices"
Bottom-line investing      92
Brock, William      48
Brokers      see "Stock brokers"
Buffet, Warren      65 85
Bull markets, investor self-descriptions and      58
Bull markets, pump and dump strategy in      33
Butterfly Economics (Ormerod)      169
Buy-sell rules      43
Buying on the margin      127 129 see
Calendar effects      49
Call options      see also "Stock options"
Call options, covering      121
Call options, how they work      120
Call options, selling      120
Call options, strategies      121Ч122
Call options, valuation tools      122Ч123
Campaign contributions      126
Capital asset pricing model      160
Capital gains vs. Dividends      91Ч92
Central limit theorem      140
Ceos, arrogance of      184Ч185
Ceos, benefits in manipulating stock prices      123Ч124
Ceos, remuneration compared with that of average employee      183
Ceos, volatility due to malfeasance of      15
Chain letters      92Ч95
Chaitin, Gregory      193
Chance      see also "Whim"
Chance, as undeniable factor in market      63
Chance, trading strategies and      28
Chaos theory      172 see
CHARITY      156
Clayman, Michelle      107
Cognitive illusions      21Ч26
Cognitive illusions, availability error      21
Cognitive illusions, confirmation bias      21Ч22
Cognitive illusions, heuristics rules of thumb for saving time      25Ч26
Cognitive illusions, mental accounts      24Ч25
Cognitive illusions, status quo bias      22Ч23
Cohen, Abby Joseph      147
Coin flipping      63Ч64
Common knowledge, accounting scandals and      63
Common knowledge, definition and importance to investors      9Ч10
Common knowledge, dynamic with private knowledge      191
Common knowledge, insider trading and      164Ч165
Common knowledge, parable illustrating      10Ч12
Common knowledge, private information becoming      165Ч167
Companies/corporations, adjusting results to meet expectations      21
Companies/corporations, applying BenfordТs Law to corporate fraud      74
Companies/corporations, comparing corporate and personal accounting      25
Companies/corporations, financial health and      102
Companies/corporations, P/E ratio of blue chips      101
Competition vs. Cooperation, prisonerТs dilemma      191Ч192
Complexity of sequences (mathematics)      193
Complexity of trading strategies      191 192 194Ч196
Complexity, changing over time      195Ч196
Complexity, horizon      195
Compound interest, as basis of wealth      86
Compound interest, doubling time and      90
Compound interest, formulas for      88Ч89
Compound interest, future value and      89Ч90
Compound interest, present value and      89
Confirmation bias, definition of      21Ч22
Confirmation bias, investments reflecting      13
Confirmation bias, stock-picking and      22
Connectedness      see also "Networks"
Connectedness, European market causing reaction on Wall Street      163
Connectedness, interactions based on whim      168Ч169
Connectedness, interactions between technical traders and value traders      167Ч168
Connectedness, irrational interactions between traders      169Ч170
Connectedness, Wolfram model of interactions between traders      170Ч171
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)      9
Contrarian investing, dogs of the Dow      105
Contrarian investing, measures of excellence and      107
Contrarian investing, rate of return and      106Ч107
Cooperation vs. Competition, prisonerТs dilemma      191Ч192
Correlation coefficient      152 see
Counter-intuitive investment      54
Counterproductive behavior psychology of      17Ч18
Covariance, calculation of      152Ч153
Covariance, portfolio diversification based on      154
Covariance, portfolio volatility and      152
Covariance, stock selection and      159
Cramer, James      199
Crowd, following or not      37
Crowd, herd-like nature of price movements      181
Dart throwing, stock-picking contest in the Wall Street Journal      63
Data mining, illustrated by online chatrooms      32
Data mining, moving averages and      44
Data mining, survivorship bias and      30Ч31
Data mining, trading strategies and      28Ч30
DeBondt, Werner      106Ч107
Deciding WhatТs News (Gans)      185
Decimalization reforms      70Ч71
Decision making, minimizing regret      23
Decision making, selling WCOM      200
Depression of      1873 113
Derivatives trading, Enron      112
Despair and guilt over market losses      118
Deviation from the mean      see also "Mean value"
Deviation from the mean, covariance      152
Deviation from the mean, standard deviation (d)      137Ч139
Deviation from the mean, variance      136Ч137
Dice, probability and      50
Digex      55
Discounting process, present value of future money      91Ч92
Distribution of incomes      132
Distribution of wealth, dynamic of concentration      182Ч183
Distribution of wealth, UN report on      182
Diversified portfolios      see "Stock portfolios diversifying"
Dividends, earnings and      100
Dividends, proposals benefitting returns from      92
Dodd, David      106
Dogs of the Dow strategy      105
Dot com IPOs, as a pyramid scheme      93
Double entry bookkeeping      115
Double-bottom trend reversal      46
Doubling time, compound interest and      90
Dow, dogs of the Dow strategy      105
Dow, percentages of gains and losses      15
e (exponential growth), compound interest and      86Ч88
e (exponential growth), higher mathematics and      88Ч89
Earnings, anchoring effect and      20
Earnings, complications with determination of      100
Earnings, inflating (WCOM)      112
Earnings, P/E ratio and      100
Earnings, stock valuation and      100
East, Steven, H.      147
Ebbers, Bernie, acquisition appetite of      93
Ebbers, Bernie, arrogance of      183
Ebbers, Bernie, author emails offer of help      199
Ebbers, Bernie, Digex purchase      55
Ebbers, Bernie, down-home style of      181Ч182
Ebbers, Bernie, forced to sell WCOM stock      23
Ebbers, Bernie, fraud by      112Ч113
Ebbers, Bernie, pump and dump strategy and      34
Ebbers, Bernie, purchase of worldcom stock by      129
Economics, human behavior and      16Ч17
Efficient Market Hypothesis, background of      59
Efficient Market Hypothesis, impact of accounting scandals on      63
Efficient Market Hypothesis, increased efficiency results in decreased predictability      61Ч62
Efficient Market Hypothesis, investors beliefs impacting      189
Efficient Market Hypothesis, moving averages and      44
Efficient Market Hypothesis, paradoxes of      187Ч189
Efficient Market Hypothesis, randomness and      57
Efficient Market Hypothesis, rationale for      60Ч61
Efficient Market Hypothesis, resistance and support levels and      46
Efficient Market Hypothesis, versions of      59Ч60
Elliott, Ralph Nelson      38Ч39
Ellison, Larry      184
Employee remuneration vs. CEO remuneration      183
Endowment effect      22
Enron, accounting practices      112
Enron, margin calls on CEO Ken Lay      129
Environmental exploitation, as Ponzi scheme      93Ч94
Equity-risk premium      146
Erdoes, Paul      75 177
Escher, M.C.      54
European stock market      163
Euros, benefits of standardizing European currencies      71
Euros, euro-pound/pound-euro exchange rate      39Ч40
Expected excess return      158 160
Expected value      see also "Mean value"
Expected value, "maximization of expected value"      198
Expected value, covariance and      152
Expected value, formula for obtaining      133Ч134
Expected value, graphing against risk (Markowitz optimal portfolios)      157
Expected value, insurance company example      135
Expected value, mu (m)      133 138
Expected value, probability theory and      135Ч136
Exploitable opportunities, tendency to disappear      61
Fama, Eugene      59 105
Fibonacci numbers, Elliott wave theory and      38
Fibonacci numbers, golden ratio and      40Ч41
Fibre-optic cable      113Ч144
Fifty-two-week highs      20
Fooled by Randomness (Taleb)      134
Formulas, Black Ч Scholes options      122
Formulas, compound interest      88Ч89
Formulas, expected value      133Ч134
Fractals      38 174Ч175
Frank, Robert      183
Fraud      see also "accounting scandals"
Fraud, applying BenfordТs Law to corporate fraud      74
Fraud, applying BenfordТs law to income tax fraud      73
Fraud, Bemie Ebbers      112Ч113
Fraud, Salomon Smith Barney benefiting illegally from IPOs      34
Fraud, WCOM fraud      200
Fraud, wrongdoing of brokers at Merrill Lynch      34
Free market economy      184
French, Ken      105
Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin (Gould)      61
Fund managers      149 see
Fundamental analysis, as sober investment strategy      85
Fundamental analysis, determining fundamental value by discounting process      91Ч92
Fundamental analysis, evidence supporting      104
Fundamental analysis, present value and      90
Fundamental analysis, sequence complexity and trading rules and      195
Fundamental analysis, stock valuation with      99Ч100
Fundamental analysis, unexciting nature of      86
Future value, P/E ratio as measure of future earnings expectations      101
Future value, present value and      89Ч90
GamblerТs fallacy      64
Games, gambling and probability      50Ч51
Games, game theory      198
Games, guessing games      6Ч9
Games, Monopoly      141Ч142
Games, ParrondoТs paradox      52Ч54
Games, St. Petersburg paradox      147Ч149
Games, ultimatum games      17
Games, worldcom board game      142
Gans, Herbert      185
Gates, Bill      182 184
Geometric mean, illustrated by IPO purchases/sales      96Ч98
Geometric mean, rate of return      99
Gilder, George      2
1 2 3
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