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Ќазвание: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
јвтор: Paulos J.A.
In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, best-selling author John Allen Paulos demonstrates what the tools of mathematics can tell us about the vagaries of the stock market. Employing his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes and puzzles (and even a film treatment), Paulos addresses every thinking reader's curiosity about the market: Is it efficient? Is it rational? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? What light do fractals, network theory, and common psychological foibles shed on investor behavior? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? Can a deeper knowledge of mathematics help beat the odds? All of these questions are explored with the engaging erudition that made Paulos's A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper and Innumeracy favorites with both armchair mathematicians and readers who want to think like them. Paulos also shares the cautionary tale of his own long and disastrous love affair with WorldCom. In the tradition of Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run, this wry and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets Ч or knows someone who does.
Connectedness, European market causing reaction on Wall Street163 Connectedness, interactions based on whim168Ч169 Connectedness, interactions between technical traders and value traders167Ч168 Connectedness, irrational interactions between traders169Ч170 Connectedness, Wolfram model of interactions between traders170Ч171 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)9 Contrarian investing, dogs of the Dow105 Contrarian investing, measures of excellence and107 Contrarian investing, rate of return and106Ч107 Cooperation vs. Competition, prisonerТs dilemma191Ч192 Correlation coefficient152see Counter-intuitive investment54 Counterproductive behavior psychology of17Ч18 Covariance, calculation of152Ч153 Covariance, portfolio diversification based on154 Covariance, portfolio volatility and152 Covariance, stock selection and159 Cramer, James199 Crowd, following or not37 Crowd, herd-like nature of price movements181 Dart throwing, stock-picking contest in the Wall Street Journal63 Data mining, illustrated by online chatrooms32 Data mining, moving averages and44 Data mining, survivorship bias and30Ч31 Data mining, trading strategies and28Ч30 DeBondt, Werner106Ч107 Deciding WhatТs News (Gans)185 Decimalization reforms70Ч71 Decision making, minimizing regret23 Decision making, selling WCOM200 Depression of1873113 Derivatives trading, Enron112 Despair and guilt over market losses118 Deviation from the meansee also "Mean value" Deviation from the mean, covariance152 Deviation from the mean, standard deviation (d)137Ч139 Deviation from the mean, variance136Ч137 Dice, probability and50 Digex55 Discounting process, present value of future money91Ч92 Distribution of incomes132 Distribution of wealth, dynamic of concentration182Ч183 Distribution of wealth, UN report on182 Diversified portfoliossee "Stock portfoliosdiversifying" Dividends, earnings and100 Dividends, proposals benefitting returns from92 Dodd, David106 Dogs of the Dow strategy105 Dot com IPOs, as a pyramid scheme93 Double entry bookkeeping115 Double-bottom trend reversal46 Doubling time, compound interest and90 Dow, dogs of the Dow strategy105 Dow, percentages of gains and losses15 e (exponential growth), compound interest and86Ч88 e (exponential growth), higher mathematics and88Ч89 Earnings, anchoring effect and20 Earnings, complications with determination of100 Earnings, inflating (WCOM)112 Earnings, P/E ratio and100 Earnings, stock valuation and100 East, Steven, H.147 Ebbers, Bernie, acquisition appetite of93 Ebbers, Bernie, arrogance of183 Ebbers, Bernie, author emails offer of help199 Ebbers, Bernie, Digex purchase55 Ebbers, Bernie, down-home style of181Ч182 Ebbers, Bernie, forced to sell WCOM stock23 Ebbers, Bernie, fraud by112Ч113 Ebbers, Bernie, pump and dump strategy and34 Ebbers, Bernie, purchase of worldcom stock by129 Economics, human behavior and16Ч17 Efficient Market Hypothesis, background of59 Efficient Market Hypothesis, impact of accounting scandals on63 Efficient Market Hypothesis, increased efficiency results in decreased predictability61Ч62 Efficient Market Hypothesis, investors beliefs impacting189 Efficient Market Hypothesis, moving averages and44 Efficient Market Hypothesis, paradoxes of187Ч189 Efficient Market Hypothesis, randomness and57 Efficient Market Hypothesis, rationale for60Ч61 Efficient Market Hypothesis, resistance and support levels and46 Efficient Market Hypothesis, versions of59Ч60 Elliott, Ralph Nelson38Ч39 Ellison, Larry184 Employee remuneration vs. CEO remuneration183 Endowment effect22 Enron, accounting practices112 Enron, margin calls on CEO Ken Lay129 Environmental exploitation, as Ponzi scheme93Ч94 Equity-risk premium146 Erdoes, Paul75177 Escher, M.C.54 European stock market163 Euros, benefits of standardizing European currencies71 Euros, euro-pound/pound-euro exchange rate39Ч40 Expected excess return158160 Expected valuesee also "Mean value" Expected value, "maximization of expected value"198 Expected value, covariance and152 Expected value, formula for obtaining133Ч134 Expected value, graphing against risk (Markowitz optimal portfolios)157 Expected value, insurance company example135 Expected value, mu (m)133138 Expected value, probability theory and135Ч136 Exploitable opportunities, tendency to disappear61 Fama, Eugene59105 Fibonacci numbers, Elliott wave theory and38 Fibonacci numbers, golden ratio and40Ч41 Fibre-optic cable113Ч144 Fifty-two-week highs20 Fooled by Randomness (Taleb)134 Formulas, Black Ч Scholes options122 Formulas, compound interest88Ч89 Formulas, expected value133Ч134 Fractals38174Ч175 Frank, Robert183 Fraudsee also "accounting scandals" Fraud, applying BenfordТs Law to corporate fraud74 Fraud, applying BenfordТs law to income tax fraud73 Fraud, Bemie Ebbers112Ч113 Fraud, Salomon Smith Barney benefiting illegally from IPOs34 Fraud, WCOM fraud200 Fraud, wrongdoing of brokers at Merrill Lynch34 Free market economy184 French, Ken105 Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin (Gould)61 Fund managers149see Fundamental analysis, as sober investment strategy85 Fundamental analysis, determining fundamental value by discounting process91Ч92 Fundamental analysis, evidence supporting104 Fundamental analysis, present value and90 Fundamental analysis, sequence complexity and trading rules and195 Fundamental analysis, stock valuation with99Ч100 Fundamental analysis, unexciting nature of86 Future value, P/E ratio as measure of future earnings expectations101 Future value, present value and89Ч90 GamblerТs fallacy64 Games, gambling and probability50Ч51 Games, game theory198 Games, guessing games6Ч9 Games, Monopoly141Ч142 Games, ParrondoТs paradox52Ч54 Games, St. Petersburg paradox147Ч149 Games, ultimatum games17 Games, worldcom board game142 Gans, Herbert185 Gates, Bill182184 Geometric mean, illustrated by IPO purchases/sales96Ч98 Geometric mean, rate of return99 Gilder, George2