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Paulos J.A. — A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
Paulos J.A. — A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market



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Íàçâàíèå: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market

Àâòîð: Paulos J.A.

Àííîòàöèÿ:

In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, best-selling author John Allen Paulos demonstrates what the tools of mathematics can tell us about the vagaries of the stock market. Employing his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes and puzzles (and even a film treatment), Paulos addresses every thinking reader's curiosity about the market: Is it efficient? Is it rational? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? What light do fractals, network theory, and common psychological foibles shed on investor behavior? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? Can a deeper knowledge of mathematics help beat the odds? All of these questions are explored with the engaging erudition that made Paulos's A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper and Innumeracy favorites with both armchair mathematicians and readers who want to think like them. Paulos also shares the cautionary tale of his own long and disastrous love affair with WorldCom. In the tradition of Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run, this wry and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets — or knows someone who does.


ßçûê: en

Ðóáðèêà: Ìàòåìàòèêà/Ïîïóëÿðíûå èçäàíèÿ/

Ñòàòóñ ïðåäìåòíîãî óêàçàòåëÿ: Ãîòîâ óêàçàòåëü ñ íîìåðàìè ñòðàíèö

ed2k: ed2k stats

Ãîä èçäàíèÿ: 2003

Êîëè÷åñòâî ñòðàíèö: 216

Äîáàâëåíà â êàòàëîã: 30.04.2005

Îïåðàöèè: Ïîëîæèòü íà ïîëêó | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ññûëêó äëÿ ôîðóìà | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ID
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Ïðåäìåòíûé óêàçàòåëü
Rate of return, Beta (B) values and      160
Rate of return, determining      139—140
Rate of return, expected excess return      160
Rate of return, fixed, with treasury bills      158
Rate of return, IPO purchases/sales and      96—98
Rate of return, median vs. Average      99
Rate of return, minimizing risk without reducing      154
Rate of return, standard deviation and      144—145
Rate of return, stocks vs. Bonds      146
Ratio of the excess return on a portfolio      158
Reality, inability to model      147
Reforms, accounting practices      114
Regression to the mean, as contrarian measure      107
Regression to the mean, Sport Illustrated cover jinx as illustration of      108
Regression to the mean, widespread examples of      109
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre)      33
Resistance levels      45—47 48
Risks, aversion, illustrated by online chatrooms      32
Risks, diversification and      150
Risks, graphing against expected value (Markowitz optimal portfolios)      157
Risks, market-related and stock-related      162
Risks, mathematics of      136—137
Risks, minimizing without hurting rate of return      154
Risks, options and      118
Risks, rate of return and      110
Risks, selling short and      126—127
Risks, stocks vs. Bonds      144 146
Risks, taking unnecessary      118
Roschach blots      59
Ross, Sheldon      63
Roulette      50—51
Rules      see "Trading strategies"
Rules of thumb, as time saving device      25
Rumors not being able to ignore when considering investments      3
Rumors, conclusions based on      33
S&P 500, buying/selling puts      134
S-shaped curve, P/E ratio      101
Salomon Smith Barney      14 34
Samuelson, Paul      59
Scaling laws      see "Power law"
Scams, card tricks      82
Scams, Ponzi schemes, chain letters, and pyramid schemes      92—95
Scams, sports betting scam      76—82
Scams, stock-newsletter scam      67—68
Scandals      see "Accounting scandals" "Fraud"
Scholes, Myron      121—122 129
Script, sports scam      75—83
Secrecy, complexity resulting from lack of      190
Secrecy, investment strategies and      202
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), charging worldcom of inflated earnings      112
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), decimalization reforms      70
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), parable of common knowledge and      11—12
Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd)      106
Self-fulfilling beliefs      27—28
Selling on the margin      see "Short selling"
Sensitive dependence, nonlinear systems      173—174
Sequences, complexity of (mathematics of)      193—194
Sequences, random sequences      194
Sequences, random walk theory and      194—195
Share price, P/E ratio      100 see of
Sharpe, William      158—159
Sherra, Jesse      72
Shiller, Robert      15 92 146
Short selling      126—127 129
Short-term investors      3—4
Shorting and distorting strategy      35—36 124
Shubik, Martin      55
Sidgmore, John      55
Siegel, Jeremy      92 143—145
Six sigma performance      140
Slovic, Paul      18
Sluggish Market Hypothesis      188—189
Smith, Adam      191
Socially regressive funds      154 155
Spitzer, Eliot      69—70 111
Sport Illustrated      107—108
Spread, making money on      70
St. Petersburg paradox      147—149
Standard deviation (d) of a portfolio      150
Standard deviation (d), mean value and      137—139
Standard deviation (d), rate of return and      144—145
Start-ups, P/E ratio      101
Statistical correlations, negatively correlated stocks      151 154—155
Statistical correlations, random attributes resulting in      57
Statistical independence      163
Statistics, use by activists      18
Status quo bias      22—23
Stevenson, Robert Louis      94
Stock brokers/analysts, credibility of ratings      35
Stock brokers/analysts, generating buy-sell rules from moving averages      43
Stock brokers/analysts, online trading and      71—72
Stock brokers/analysts, shady practices of      34
Stock brokers/analysts, sources for investment ideas of      149
Stock brokers/analysts, stock-picking contest in the Wall Street Journal      63
Stock markets, analogy for      142—143
Stock markets, applying parable of common knowledge to      11—12
Stock markets, bear markets      35—36 58
Stock markets, being right for the wrong reasons      5—6
Stock markets, Beta (B) values and      160—161
Stock markets, bull markets      33 58
Stock markets, chance      63
Stock markets, common vs. Private knowledge in      191—192
Stock markets, complexity changing over time      190 195—196
Stock markets, conceptual mathematics and      4—5
Stock markets, despair and guilt over losses      118
Stock markets, efficiency of      see "Efficient Market Hypothesis"
Stock markets, European market causing reaction on Wall Street      163
Stock markets, free market economy      184
Stock markets, Greenspan’s impact on      86
Stock markets, herd-like nature of      181
Stock markets, IPOs in 1990s      95
Stock markets, lack of liquidity in world markets      130
Stock markets, market makers and      70—71 196—198
Stock markets, media      16
Stock markets, predictability      see "Predictability of
Stock markets, random phenomena and      67
Stock markets, randomness vs. Predictability      4 48
Stock markets, selling short as corrective to      127
Stock markets, Sluggish Market Hypothesis      188—189
Stock markets, volatility of      15—16 46 71—72
Stock options, Black — Scholes option formula      122—123
Stock options, buying      119—120
Stock options, counting as expenses      115
Stock options, how they work      119
Stock options, leverage in      123—124
Stock options, reducing risk with      118—119
Stock options, selling      121
Stock options, strategies for using      121
Stock options, valuation tools for      122
Stock portfolios, "single index model" (Sharpe)      159
Stock portfolios, balancing risk-free with optimal      158—159
Stock portfolios, Beta (B) values and      160—161
Stock portfolios, diversifying      149—150
Stock portfolios, Markowitz techniques for comparing      157
Stock portfolios, negatively correlated stocks      151
Stock portfolios, ratio of the excess return and      158
Stock portfolios, risks and      162
Stock portfolios, social and political basis of      155—156
Stock portfolios, stock selection based on negative covariances      154
Stock portfolios, theory of portfolio selection      157—159
Stock portfolios, volatility of      150—152
Stock prices      see also "P/E ratio" "Price
Stock prices, manipulating for own benefit (management/CEO)      123—124
Stock prices, oscillation created by investor reactions to each other      171
Stock prices, reflecting publicly available information      59—60
Stock prices, targets      18—19 20
Stock, Beta (B) values of      160—161
Stock, bonds vs.      143—145 145—146
Stock, getting what you pay for      99—100
Stock, insider trading and      130—132
Stock, overvaluation      102
Stock, price anomalies that lead to predictability      49
Stock, price targets of      18—19
Stock, selecting      see "Stock-picking"
Stock, traders      see "Traders"
Stock, uniformity of positive ratings      14
Stock, value stocks      106
Stock-newsletter scam      67—68
Stock-picking, confirmation bias and      22
Stock-picking, contest in the Wall Street Journal      63
Stock-picking, negative covariances and      154
Stock-picking, PEG ratio      104
Stock-picking, theory of portfolio selection, Variation One      157—158
Stock-picking, theory of portfolio selection, Variation Three      159
Stock-picking, theory of portfolio selection, Variation Two      158—159
Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel)      92 144
Stop-loss orders      113
Strike prices, of stock options      120
Subterranean information processing      167
Support levels      45—47 48
Survivorship bias      30—31
Taleb, Nassim      134
Taxes, progressive      148
Technical analysis, as predictor of stock prices      37
Technical analysis, blackjack strategies as parallel to      50—51
Technical analysis, Elliott wave theory      38—39
Technical analysis, illusion of control created by      57
Technical analysis, moving averages      41—44
Technical analysis, resistance and support levels      45—47
Technical analysis, sequence complexity and trading rules and      195
Technical analysis, trends and predictability      47—49
Technical analysis, vs. Random-walk theory      49
Telecommunications industry      113—144
Thaler, Richard on calendar effects      49
Thaler, Richard on counter-productive behavior      18
Thaler, Richard, contrarian anomalies in stock studies of      106—107
Thaler, Richard, notion of mental accounts      1 24—25
The Education of a Speculator (Niederhoffer)      134
The Winner’s Curse (Thaler)      18
Thinly traded stocks, pump and dump strategy and      33
Thinly traded stocks, shorting and distorting strategy      35
Time saving, heuristic rules for      25
Titman, Sheridan      47
Traders      see also "Investors"
Traders, "blow up" and becoming "ghosts"      118
Traders, irrational interactions between      169—170
Traders, technical traders and value traders      167—168
Traders, Wolfram model of interactions between      170—171
Trading strategies      see "Onvestment strategies" "Predictability of
Trading strategies, buy-sell rules      43
Trading strategies, complexity of      191 192 194—196
Trading strategies, data mining and      28—30
Trading strategies, market predictions and      171
Trading strategies, role of chance in      28
Trading strategies, technical traders vs. Value traders      167—168
Treasury bills      158
Trend analysis      37 47 see
Tversky, Amos      18 23
Ultimatum games      17
Undervalued stocks, lists of      15
Unemployment      172
United Nations      182
Uunet division, worldcom (WCOM)      85
Value investing      see also "Fundamental analysis"
Value investing, accounting practices and      110—116
Value investing, better returns than with growth investing      109
Value investing, contrarian basis of      105
Value investing, contrasted with growth investing      104—105
Value investing, risk and      110
Value stocks      106
Vanguard 500 fund      60 62—63
Variance from mean, as measure of risk      136—137
Variance from mean, portfolio volatility and      153
Volatility, Beta (B) values and      160
Volatility, diversification and      150—152
Volatility, measuring with standard deviation      138
Volatility, online trading and      71—72
Volatility, options prices and      123
Volatility, resistance and support levels and      46
Volatility, stock market      15
Volatility, stocks      144
Volatility, treasury bills      158
Wall Street      see also "Stock market"
Wall Street Journal      63
Wall Street, European market causing reaction on      163
Wall Street, variety of influences effecting      175—176
Warner, Kurt      107—108
Web      see "Internet"
Weill, Sanford      169
Whim      171 see
Windfall money      1
Wolff, Alexander      108
Wolff, Edward      183
Wolfram, Stephen      170—171
World Class Options Market Maker (WCOMM)      196—198
World markets, liquidity in      130
World Trade Center      124
Worldcom (WCOM), acquisitions by      93—94
Worldcom (WCOM), anchoring to fifty-two-week high      20
Worldcom (WCOM), attempts to help out      198—199
Worldcom (WCOM), board game      142
Worldcom (WCOM), buying more as price drops      13—14
Worldcom (WCOM), decision to sell      200
Worldcom (WCOM), emotions dictating increased investment in      2
Worldcom (WCOM), guilt and despair over losses      118
Worldcom (WCOM), impact of Ebbers sell-off      23—24
Worldcom (WCOM), infatuation with      201
Worldcom (WCOM), margin calls on      128—129
Worldcom (WCOM), moving averages and      43—44
WorldCom (WCOM), purchase of Digex as example of "losing through winning"      55
Worldcom (WCOM), recommended as strong buy in 1990s      1—2
Worldcom (WCOM), uunet division      85
Yahoo!      31—32
Zipf’s law      179
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