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Paulos J.A. — A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
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Íàçâàíèå: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
Àâòîð: Paulos J.A.
Àííîòàöèÿ: In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, best-selling author John Allen Paulos demonstrates what the tools of mathematics can tell us about the vagaries of the stock market. Employing his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes and puzzles (and even a film treatment), Paulos addresses every thinking reader's curiosity about the market: Is it efficient? Is it rational? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? What light do fractals, network theory, and common psychological foibles shed on investor behavior? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? Can a deeper knowledge of mathematics help beat the odds? All of these questions are explored with the engaging erudition that made Paulos's A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper and Innumeracy favorites with both armchair mathematicians and readers who want to think like them. Paulos also shares the cautionary tale of his own long and disastrous love affair with WorldCom. In the tradition of Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run, this wry and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets — or knows someone who does.
ßçûê:
Ðóáðèêà: Ìàòåìàòèêà /Ïîïóëÿðíûå èçäàíèÿ /
Ñòàòóñ ïðåäìåòíîãî óêàçàòåëÿ: Ãîòîâ óêàçàòåëü ñ íîìåðàìè ñòðàíèö
ed2k: ed2k stats
Ãîä èçäàíèÿ: 2003
Êîëè÷åñòâî ñòðàíèö: 216
Äîáàâëåíà â êàòàëîã: 30.04.2005
Îïåðàöèè: Ïîëîæèòü íà ïîëêó |
Ñêîïèðîâàòü ññûëêó äëÿ ôîðóìà | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ID
Ïðåäìåòíûé óêàçàòåëü
Rate of return, Beta (B) values and 160
Rate of return, determining 139—140
Rate of return, expected excess return 160
Rate of return, fixed, with treasury bills 158
Rate of return, IPO purchases/sales and 96—98
Rate of return, median vs. Average 99
Rate of return, minimizing risk without reducing 154
Rate of return, standard deviation and 144—145
Rate of return, stocks vs. Bonds 146
Ratio of the excess return on a portfolio 158
Reality, inability to model 147
Reforms, accounting practices 114
Regression to the mean, as contrarian measure 107
Regression to the mean, Sport Illustrated cover jinx as illustration of 108
Regression to the mean, widespread examples of 109
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre) 33
Resistance levels 45—47 48
Risks, aversion, illustrated by online chatrooms 32
Risks, diversification and 150
Risks, graphing against expected value (Markowitz optimal portfolios) 157
Risks, market-related and stock-related 162
Risks, mathematics of 136—137
Risks, minimizing without hurting rate of return 154
Risks, options and 118
Risks, rate of return and 110
Risks, selling short and 126—127
Risks, stocks vs. Bonds 144 146
Risks, taking unnecessary 118
Roschach blots 59
Ross, Sheldon 63
Roulette 50—51
Rules see "Trading strategies"
Rules of thumb, as time saving device 25
Rumors not being able to ignore when considering investments 3
Rumors, conclusions based on 33
S&P 500, buying/selling puts 134
S-shaped curve, P/E ratio 101
Salomon Smith Barney 14 34
Samuelson, Paul 59
Scaling laws see "Power law"
Scams, card tricks 82
Scams, Ponzi schemes, chain letters, and pyramid schemes 92—95
Scams, sports betting scam 76—82
Scams, stock-newsletter scam 67—68
Scandals see "Accounting scandals" "Fraud"
Scholes, Myron 121—122 129
Script, sports scam 75—83
Secrecy, complexity resulting from lack of 190
Secrecy, investment strategies and 202
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), charging worldcom of inflated earnings 112
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), decimalization reforms 70
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), parable of common knowledge and 11—12
Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd) 106
Self-fulfilling beliefs 27—28
Selling on the margin see "Short selling"
Sensitive dependence, nonlinear systems 173—174
Sequences, complexity of (mathematics of) 193—194
Sequences, random sequences 194
Sequences, random walk theory and 194—195
Share price, P/E ratio 100 see of
Sharpe, William 158—159
Sherra, Jesse 72
Shiller, Robert 15 92 146
Short selling 126—127 129
Short-term investors 3—4
Shorting and distorting strategy 35—36 124
Shubik, Martin 55
Sidgmore, John 55
Siegel, Jeremy 92 143—145
Six sigma performance 140
Slovic, Paul 18
Sluggish Market Hypothesis 188—189
Smith, Adam 191
Socially regressive funds 154 155
Spitzer, Eliot 69—70 111
Sport Illustrated 107—108
Spread, making money on 70
St. Petersburg paradox 147—149
Standard deviation (d) of a portfolio 150
Standard deviation (d), mean value and 137—139
Standard deviation (d), rate of return and 144—145
Start-ups, P/E ratio 101
Statistical correlations, negatively correlated stocks 151 154—155
Statistical correlations, random attributes resulting in 57
Statistical independence 163
Statistics, use by activists 18
Status quo bias 22—23
Stevenson, Robert Louis 94
Stock brokers/analysts, credibility of ratings 35
Stock brokers/analysts, generating buy-sell rules from moving averages 43
Stock brokers/analysts, online trading and 71—72
Stock brokers/analysts, shady practices of 34
Stock brokers/analysts, sources for investment ideas of 149
Stock brokers/analysts, stock-picking contest in the Wall Street Journal 63
Stock markets, analogy for 142—143
Stock markets, applying parable of common knowledge to 11—12
Stock markets, bear markets 35—36 58
Stock markets, being right for the wrong reasons 5—6
Stock markets, Beta (B) values and 160—161
Stock markets, bull markets 33 58
Stock markets, chance 63
Stock markets, common vs. Private knowledge in 191—192
Stock markets, complexity changing over time 190 195—196
Stock markets, conceptual mathematics and 4—5
Stock markets, despair and guilt over losses 118
Stock markets, efficiency of see "Efficient Market Hypothesis"
Stock markets, European market causing reaction on Wall Street 163
Stock markets, free market economy 184
Stock markets, Greenspan’s impact on 86
Stock markets, herd-like nature of 181
Stock markets, IPOs in 1990s 95
Stock markets, lack of liquidity in world markets 130
Stock markets, market makers and 70—71 196—198
Stock markets, media 16
Stock markets, predictability see "Predictability of
Stock markets, random phenomena and 67
Stock markets, randomness vs. Predictability 4 48
Stock markets, selling short as corrective to 127
Stock markets, Sluggish Market Hypothesis 188—189
Stock markets, volatility of 15—16 46 71—72
Stock options, Black — Scholes option formula 122—123
Stock options, buying 119—120
Stock options, counting as expenses 115
Stock options, how they work 119
Stock options, leverage in 123—124
Stock options, reducing risk with 118—119
Stock options, selling 121
Stock options, strategies for using 121
Stock options, valuation tools for 122
Stock portfolios, "single index model" (Sharpe) 159
Stock portfolios, balancing risk-free with optimal 158—159
Stock portfolios, Beta (B) values and 160—161
Stock portfolios, diversifying 149—150
Stock portfolios, Markowitz techniques for comparing 157
Stock portfolios, negatively correlated stocks 151
Stock portfolios, ratio of the excess return and 158
Stock portfolios, risks and 162
Stock portfolios, social and political basis of 155—156
Stock portfolios, stock selection based on negative covariances 154
Stock portfolios, theory of portfolio selection 157—159
Stock portfolios, volatility of 150—152
Stock prices see also "P/E ratio" "Price
Stock prices, manipulating for own benefit (management/CEO) 123—124
Stock prices, oscillation created by investor reactions to each other 171
Stock prices, reflecting publicly available information 59—60
Stock prices, targets 18—19 20
Stock, Beta (B) values of 160—161
Stock, bonds vs. 143—145 145—146
Stock, getting what you pay for 99—100
Stock, insider trading and 130—132
Stock, overvaluation 102
Stock, price anomalies that lead to predictability 49
Stock, price targets of 18—19
Stock, selecting see "Stock-picking"
Stock, traders see "Traders"
Stock, uniformity of positive ratings 14
Stock, value stocks 106
Stock-newsletter scam 67—68
Stock-picking, confirmation bias and 22
Stock-picking, contest in the Wall Street Journal 63
Stock-picking, negative covariances and 154
Stock-picking, PEG ratio 104
Stock-picking, theory of portfolio selection, Variation One 157—158
Stock-picking, theory of portfolio selection, Variation Three 159
Stock-picking, theory of portfolio selection, Variation Two 158—159
Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel) 92 144
Stop-loss orders 113
Strike prices, of stock options 120
Subterranean information processing 167
Support levels 45—47 48
Survivorship bias 30—31
Taleb, Nassim 134
Taxes, progressive 148
Technical analysis, as predictor of stock prices 37
Technical analysis, blackjack strategies as parallel to 50—51
Technical analysis, Elliott wave theory 38—39
Technical analysis, illusion of control created by 57
Technical analysis, moving averages 41—44
Technical analysis, resistance and support levels 45—47
Technical analysis, sequence complexity and trading rules and 195
Technical analysis, trends and predictability 47—49
Technical analysis, vs. Random-walk theory 49
Telecommunications industry 113—144
Thaler, Richard on calendar effects 49
Thaler, Richard on counter-productive behavior 18
Thaler, Richard, contrarian anomalies in stock studies of 106—107
Thaler, Richard, notion of mental accounts 1 24—25
The Education of a Speculator (Niederhoffer) 134
The Winner’s Curse (Thaler) 18
Thinly traded stocks, pump and dump strategy and 33
Thinly traded stocks, shorting and distorting strategy 35
Time saving, heuristic rules for 25
Titman, Sheridan 47
Traders see also "Investors"
Traders, "blow up" and becoming "ghosts" 118
Traders, irrational interactions between 169—170
Traders, technical traders and value traders 167—168
Traders, Wolfram model of interactions between 170—171
Trading strategies see "Onvestment strategies" "Predictability of
Trading strategies, buy-sell rules 43
Trading strategies, complexity of 191 192 194—196
Trading strategies, data mining and 28—30
Trading strategies, market predictions and 171
Trading strategies, role of chance in 28
Trading strategies, technical traders vs. Value traders 167—168
Treasury bills 158
Trend analysis 37 47 see
Tversky, Amos 18 23
Ultimatum games 17
Undervalued stocks, lists of 15
Unemployment 172
United Nations 182
Uunet division, worldcom (WCOM) 85
Value investing see also "Fundamental analysis"
Value investing, accounting practices and 110—116
Value investing, better returns than with growth investing 109
Value investing, contrarian basis of 105
Value investing, contrasted with growth investing 104—105
Value investing, risk and 110
Value stocks 106
Vanguard 500 fund 60 62—63
Variance from mean, as measure of risk 136—137
Variance from mean, portfolio volatility and 153
Volatility, Beta (B) values and 160
Volatility, diversification and 150—152
Volatility, measuring with standard deviation 138
Volatility, online trading and 71—72
Volatility, options prices and 123
Volatility, resistance and support levels and 46
Volatility, stock market 15
Volatility, stocks 144
Volatility, treasury bills 158
Wall Street see also "Stock market"
Wall Street Journal 63
Wall Street, European market causing reaction on 163
Wall Street, variety of influences effecting 175—176
Warner, Kurt 107—108
Web see "Internet"
Weill, Sanford 169
Whim 171 see
Windfall money 1
Wolff, Alexander 108
Wolff, Edward 183
Wolfram, Stephen 170—171
World Class Options Market Maker (WCOMM) 196—198
World markets, liquidity in 130
World Trade Center 124
Worldcom (WCOM), acquisitions by 93—94
Worldcom (WCOM), anchoring to fifty-two-week high 20
Worldcom (WCOM), attempts to help out 198—199
Worldcom (WCOM), board game 142
Worldcom (WCOM), buying more as price drops 13—14
Worldcom (WCOM), decision to sell 200
Worldcom (WCOM), emotions dictating increased investment in 2
Worldcom (WCOM), guilt and despair over losses 118
Worldcom (WCOM), impact of Ebbers sell-off 23—24
Worldcom (WCOM), infatuation with 201
Worldcom (WCOM), margin calls on 128—129
Worldcom (WCOM), moving averages and 43—44
WorldCom (WCOM), purchase of Digex as example of "losing through winning" 55
Worldcom (WCOM), recommended as strong buy in 1990s 1—2
Worldcom (WCOM), uunet division 85
Yahoo! 31—32
Zipf’s law 179
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