A stochastic model comprising a truncated Gaussian field with a linear expectation trend has been developed for modeling facies tract distribution in shoreface reservoirs. The expectation trend is described in terms of a progra-dation direction ф, which controls facies tract orientation, and an aggradation angle 6, which governs the distances over which the tracts can prograde. Interfingering between facies tracts is regulated by the spatial covariance function of the underlying Gaussian field- The estimation of о and 6 uses a statistical method known as Bayesian inference, which uses general geologic information and analog data, in addition to well observations.
Despite the limitations, our modeling procedure has potential to assist in the management of shoreface reservoirs where the fades tract distribution is uncertain. The procedure also has potential lo help identify and estimate risk for exploration prospects.