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Название: Probability theory as logic
Автор: Jaynes E.T.
At the 1988 workshop we called attention to the \Mind Projection Fallacy which is present in all elds that use probability. Here we give a more complete discussion showing why probabilities need not correspond to physical causal in uences, or propensities aecting mass phenomena. Probability theory is far more useful if we recognize that probabilities express fundamentally logical inferences pertaining to individual cases. We note several examples of the dierence this makes in real applications.