This working paper has been produced in the framework of the International Futures Programme’s two-year project The Commercialisation of Space: Development of Space Infrastructure. The main purpose of the Project is to take stock of the opportunities and challenges facing the space sector, particularly civilian applications, with a view to reaching a better understanding of the issues at stake and of the solutions that could be applied — both at national and international levels — in order to ensure that the sector contributes fully to the development of the economy and society at large. The Project is to be carried out in five main phases: (1) Assessment of the future evolution of the sector; (2) Selection and Clustering of Promising Applications; (3) Consideration of Business Models; (4) Improving the Framework Conditions; (5) Conclusion. The work of the two first phases is now available as an OECD publication: Space 2030: Exploring the Future of Space Applications. It is to a large extent based on four background papers that were drafted in summer 2003 by outside experts. They are:
• Bouchard, R. (2003), “Commercialisation of Space, Technology Trends”.
• Hertzfeld, H. and M. Fouquin (2003), “Economic Conditions and the Space Sector”.
• Kane, T. and M. Mowthorpe (2003), “The Space Sector and Geopolitical Developments”.
• Macauley, M. and D. Chen (2003), “Space Resources and the Challenge of Energy and the Environment”.
The working papers provide a picture of potentially promising space applications over the next 20-30 years on the basis of a “top-down” assessment of some of the key drivers likely to have a major bearing on the supply and demand conditions facing space actors in the future. For the purpose of this assessment, four main drivers of change have been identified: geopolitical developments, socio-economic developments, energy and the environment, and science and technology. Each of these four drivers is the main focus of a separate paper.
In addition, a fifth “bottom-up” paper, focused more specifically on space applications, was used in the analysis:
• Peeters, W. and C. Jolly (2003), “Evaluation of Future Space Markets”.