Mathematical epidemiology has a long history, going back to the smallpox
model of Daniel Bernoulli in 1760. Much of the basic theory was developed
between 1900 and 1935, and there has been steady progress since that time.
More recently, models to evaluate the effect of control measures have been
used to assist in the formulation of policy decisions, notably for the foot and
mouth disease outbreak in Great Britain in 2001. The SARS (Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic of 2002–2003 aroused great interest in the
use of mathematical models to predict the course of an infectious disease and
to compare the effects of different control strategies. This revived interest has
been reinforced by the current threat of an influenza pandemic.