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Название: Decision-Making: Strategies, policies, programs and plans, legislation, policy
Автор: Poos M.
Since the Hubbert model has succeed in forecasting US-48 oil production peak in early 1970s,
recent studies have estimated the end of cheap oil era. Environmental restrictions especially
the replacement of MTBE (Methyl Tert-Butil Ether) and the need to mitigate the emissions of
greenhouse gases have elected ethanol as the main candidate to replace gasoline, one of the
most important oil derivatives. The expected worldwide growth of light-duty vehicles’ fleet
and the still limited capacity of ethanol production suggest that the total replacement of
gasoline is not feasible in the short to medium-term. However, a 30% ethanol blend to the
gasoline could increase the performance of internal combustion engines, decrease the
emission of greenhouse gases and alter the rate of depletion for conventional oil reserves, thus
extending the oil era. Therefore, we recommend the investigation of ethanol as a complement
to the base gasoline and the respective impact over the world’s conventional oil reserves.
Finally, based upon the game theory, the transition process from the former fossil fuel era to
an era with wider use of biomass could focus on cooperation and compromise strategies with
optimal results to both oil and ethanol industries.