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Hurst J.M. — Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing
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Íàçâàíèå: Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing
Àâòîð: Hurst J.M.
Àííîòàöèÿ: Can a $10,000 investment yield $1,000,000 in a year? In five years? If so, what is the risk involved?
These are the kinds of questions to which this work is addressed. Such fantastic results are possible in the stock market. Individual issues fluctuate widely enough and often enough to permit this and more. Techniques are presented here that put an average yield on invested capital of 10% per month, well within the realm of possibility. Compounding profits at this rate, such a yield can return $1,000,000 on a $10,000 investment within 50 months.
An actual trading experiment will be described using these principles which produced an 8.9% yield per transaction — every 9.7 days. Such a yield, if continued, compounds $10,000 to $1,000,000 in 15 months. If such results can be attained in the market — why isn't everyone doing it?
The answer is complex, but the elements are simple: effort, knowledge and psychological barriers. Any goal this worthwhile requires time and effort. Most investors, amateur and professional do not have the kind of analytical background needed to shear through rumor, opinion, and adage to get at the basis of why stock prices change. And finally, even with knowledge in hand, many investors lack training in the emotion-logic balance required for success.
Nevertheless, all of these obstacles can be overcome. It is the purpose of this book to provide you with the essentials. The results are yours if you care to apply yourself with sufficient intensity. Investment operations will be presented here in a deliberately unorthodox manner. We will turn our backs firmly on all cliches, adages, and market lore that will not withstand critical scrutiny. Where necessary, we will not hesitate to form new ones that do fit the facts.
You will find here that the big money in investing stems from the principle of "profit compounding: — of short-term trades. It is further shown that this potential cannot be exploited in an optimum manner without a large improvement in transaction-timing capability that cannot be achieved using tradional investment methods.
You will be exposed to: a concept of profit maximization; a model of stock price motion with prediction implications; an explanation of why chart patterns form — and how to use this knowledge to your profit; step-by-step methods for using the price-motion model to generate definite "wait," "buy," "hold," "sell," "sell short," "cover short," and "protect profit" signals; an explanation of why moving averages work and how to design your own for use in transaction timing; a complete trading method: how to select issues, how to analyze them for action signals, and how to improve your chances of turning and keeping a profit; the extent to which you should be concerned by chance factors, whether or not you should sell in case of war or financial crisis; the reasons why psychological considerations can affect your profits and what you can do about it; an introduction to numerical analysis and spectral analysis, upon which the results on the book are based.
ßçûê:
Ðóáðèêà: Ýêîíîìèêà è ôèíàíñû /
Ñòàòóñ ïðåäìåòíîãî óêàçàòåëÿ: Ãîòîâ óêàçàòåëü ñ íîìåðàìè ñòðàíèö
ed2k: ed2k stats
Ãîä èçäàíèÿ: 1973
Êîëè÷åñòâî ñòðàíèö: 223
Äîáàâëåíà â êàòàëîã: 26.11.2006
Îïåðàöèè: Ïîëîæèòü íà ïîëêó |
Ñêîïèðîâàòü ññûëêó äëÿ ôîðóìà | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ID
Ïðåäìåòíûé óêàçàòåëü
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, 10 and 20 week 63
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, 10 week, centered 65—66
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, inverse, centered 109—112
Alloys Unlimited, trading interval effect 23—25
Amount of move prediction see Prediction Amplitude
Amount of move prediction, definition 169
Amount of move prediction, determination, digital filter 44 45 46 193
Amount of move prediction, determination, Fourier analysis 173—175
Amount of move prediction, determination, inverse moving averages 109—112
Amplitude-duration, relationship see Fourier analysis Frequency Proportionality
Amplitude-frequency, relationship see Fourier analysis Frequency
Angular frequency see Frequency
Brokerage displays see Tracking of prices
Buy see Signals
capitalization see Screening factors
Channels see Envelope analysis
Chart patterns see also Trendlines Triangles
Chart patterns, "V" top and bottom 61—67
Chart patterns, box, coil, diamond, flag, pennant, wedge 59 67
Chart patterns, channels 52—53 55—56 see
Chart patterns, double tops and bottoms 57—58 67
Chart patterns, failure detection 59—62
Chart patterns, gaps, islands, measured moves, saucers, one-day reversals 61
Chart patterns, head and shoulders 52 54—56 60 67
Chart patterns, validity concept 61—62
Chart services see Services
Coarse frequency structure see Fourier analysis Filter
Comb filters see Filter
Commonality, examples 44—49 201—203
Commonality, expression 32 34—35 48 201—203
Commonality, principle 28 23—33 34—35
Commonality, time-synchronization 32—33 35 48—49 95 161 166—167 201—203
Commonality, variations from 32—33 35 201—203
Component durations, tables of see Nominality
Component rate-change see Proportionality
Compounding see Profit
Construction, envelopes see Envelope analysis
Contracted data see Envelope analysis
Cosinusoidal amplitude determination see Fourier analysis
Cover short ses Signals
Curve fitting, parabolic see Interpolation parabolic
Curve fitting, straight line 184—185
Curve fitting, trigonometric 185 215—217
Curve fitting, usage 183 185
Cut-loss see Signals
Cyclic model see Model
Cyclicality, state-analysis 59—61 73—76 83—84 90—91 151—156
Data services see Services
Decision influence 30 35 141—145 157
Digital filters see Filters
Dominance, of components see Variation
Duration see Frequency period
Duration-amplitude relationship see Proportionality
Duration-magnitude fluctuation see Variation
Durations, components, tables of see Norninality
Emotional cyclically sec Pitfalls Envelope analysis
Emotional cyclically, application methods 70—71 73—77 79—82 85 87—88 89—90 108 112—113 124—125 128—130
Emotional cyclically, centerline significance 38 108
Emotional cyclically, combs 188 191—196
Emotional cyclically, construction techniques 37 69—70 85
Emotional cyclically, contracted data 40 41—42 45—48
Emotional cyclically, definition 175—176
Emotional cyclically, design 178—182
Emotional cyclically, error criteria 179—180
Emotional cyclically, examples 25 37—44 46—48 52 65—66 73—75 79—83 87—88 124—126 128—130 133
Emotional cyclically, expanded data 40
Emotional cyclically, frequency response 177 179 192 see
Emotional cyclically, lag time 176—177
Emotional cyclically, moving average see Moving average
Emotional cyclically, nesting downward 39—40
Emotional cyclically, nesting upward 38—39
Emotional cyclically, non-realtime 91—93 96 124
Emotional cyclically, output 44—46 151—152 183 193 196—197
Emotional cyclically, weights 177—178
Error, filter see Filter
Expanded data see Envelope analysis
Failure of chart patterns see Chart patterns
Filter, application 182—183
Fine frequency structure see Fourier analysis Filter
Forseeable fundamentals see Fundamentals
Fourier analysis, example, DJIA 175 188—191
Fourier analysis, implications, amplitude-frequency relationship 191
Fourier analysis, implications, course frequency structure 190
Fourier analysis, implications, fine frequency structure 190
Fourier analysis, implications, general 175—192
Fourier analysis, implications, line spectrum, evidence of 189—191 196—198
Fourier analysis, method, composite amplitude determination 175
Fourier analysis, method, cosinusoidal amplitude determination 173—175
Fourier analysis, method, data assembly 171
Fourier analysis, method, frequency determination 172—173
Fourier analysis, method, sequence separation 172 173—174
Fourier analysis, method, sinusoidal amplitude determination 174
Frequency response, centered moving average 207—210
Frequency response, definition 177
Frequency response, digital filter 175—177 179—181
Frequency response, inverse moving average 210—211
Frequency structure, stock prices see Fourier analysis Filters
Frequency, amplitude relationship, angular 170
Frequency, amplitude relationship, course, spectral 190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, definition 170
Frequency, amplitude relationship, line nature 189—190 194—200
Frequency, amplitude relationship, modulation 33 35 37 44—46 57—60 73—75 92 128—129 152 157
Frequency, amplitude relationship, period relationship 170; see also Proportionality
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, course 189—190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, fine 189—190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, spectral 189—190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, response see Frequency response sine wave
Frequency, amplitude relationship, spectrum 169—171 188—190
Frequency-amplitude relationship see Fourier analysis Frequency
Full-span moving averages see Moving averages
Fundamentals, foreseeable, effect 29 31 34 48 142 145—151 157 159—162
Fundamentals, gross national product 149—151 157
Fundamentals, historical events see Historical events
Fundamentals, motivational 29 142—145
Fundamentals, risk 22 142
Fundamentals, timing aid 29 145—151 149—151 159—262
Fundamentals, unforseeable, effect 31 34 157
Geiergraph chart service 116
Greed see Pitfalls
Gross national product see Fundamentals
Group prediction see Trading experiment
Gruen Industries 71—84 87—94
Half-span moving average see Moving average Signals
historical events 30—31 34 48 145—154
hold see Signals
Industry group prediction see Trading experiment
Interpolation, parabolic method 212—214
Interpolation, usage 185—212
Inverse moving average see Moving average Signals
Investing vs trading see Profit
Irrational decision processes see Decision
ISL daily stock price index 121
Issue selection, scan 115—116 119—120 127;
Issue selection, screening 116—119 127;
Issue selection, stable 115 120—121;
Issue selection, traditional 115
lag time see Filter Moving
Least-square-error, generalized method 215—217
Least-square-error, parabolic data fit 212—214
Least-square-error, straight line data lit 183—185
Least-square-error, trigonometric data fit 215—217
Least-square-error, usage 183—186
Line Spectrum see Fourier analysis
Magnitude-duration fluctuation see Variation
Mansfield chart service 186
Market potential see Profit
Maximization of profit see Profit
Mid-band see Signals
Model, cyclic sub-model 31—35 38 40—41 44—45 48 50 52 55 59 61 124—125 128 157
Model, motivational 143—144 157
Model, price-motion 10 29 30—34 50 55 57—59 115 119—120 124—125 128 157 159—160
Model, spectral 199—200
Modulation see Frequency
Motivational model see Model
Moving average, characteristics, frequency response 97—98 176—178 207—210
Moving average, characteristics, lag 65—66 67 98 112 176 208
Moving average, characteristics, smoothing 63—65 67 97—98 208—209
Moving average, characteristics, span 63 67 98 208
Moving average, characteristics, weights 178
Moving average, examples 63—66 98—107 125—130 132—134
Moving average, significance 62—63 62—65 67 208—210
Moving average, types, centered 65—67 207—210
Moving average, types, full-span 98—108 112—113 124
Moving average, types, half-span 97—107 112—113 124 125—127 132—134
Moving average, types, inverse 109—113 128—130 176 210—211
Moving average, types, non-centered 63
Nested lows see Signals
Nesting see Envelope analysis Signals
Nominally, durations; table of 33
Nominally, principle 33 35 50 128 199
Non-real-time envelope see Envelope analysis
Numerical filters see Filter
Outside influences see Pitfalls
Period sec Frequency
Persimmon effect see Pitfalls
Phase 57 169 177 207—211 217
Pitfalls; emotional cycKcality 166—167
Pitfalls; greed 162—163
Pitfalls; magnitude-duration fluctuation 159
Pitfalls; outside influences 160—162
Pitfalls; persimmon effect 163
Pitfalls; scale effect 165—166
Pitfalls; time distortion 164—165
Pitfalls; unforseen fundamental factors 159
Potential for profitability see Profit
Prediction, amount 93—94 99—107 109—112 125—126 131—132
Prediction, half-span example 97—10?
Prediction, potential fat 9 21 23—26 29—30 36 135
Prediction, risk 9 131—132 142
Prediction, time 59—61 70—71 73—75 79—85 90—96 109—112 124—131
Price tracking see Tracking of
Price-motion model see Model
Price-move prediction see Prediction
Principle of commonality see Commonatity
Principle of nominality see Nominality
Principle of profit maximization see Profit
Principle of proportonality see Proportionality
Principle of summation see Summation
Principle of variation see Variation
Profit maximization model see Profit Model
Profit preservation see Signals
Profit, compounding 9 26 204—205
Profit, maximization, fluctuations, as sources see also Transaction
Profit, maximization, interval effects 21 23—26
Profit, maximization, principles of 27 124 131
Profit, maximization, time invested 22 27 95
Profit, maximization, trading interval effect see Transaction interval effect
Profit, maximization, trading vs investing 22 27
Profit, potential, action signals 36
Profit, potential, market 9 23—26 134—137 138—140
Profit, rate-summation effect 206
Proportionality, amplitude vs duration, chart 34
Proportionality, principle 33—35 50 191
Proportionality, rate constancy, relationship 191
Psychological barriers see Pitfalls
Randomness, magnitude 30 34 48 153 157
Randomness, motivational 29 35 142—145
Randomness, prediction aid 29 143
Rate-change constancy, components see Proportionality
Rate-summation effect see Profit
Rate-summation, sinusoidal see Summation
Resolution see Frequency
Scale effect see Pitfalls
Scan criteria, component status 116 127
Scan criteria, dominant cyclieality 116 127
Scan criteria, long-term breakout 119—120 127
Scan criteria, trend 116 127
Scan criteria, triangles 119
Scan criteria, volume 116—127
Screening factors, stability, earnings growth 118—119 127
Screening factors, stability, lating 118—119 127
Screening factors, stability, price-earnings ratio 118—119 127
Screening factors, stability, yield 118—119
Screening factors, summarized 119
Screening factors, volatility, capitalization 117—118 127
Screening factors, volatility, importance 119
Screening factors, volatility, percentage motion 117 127
Screening factors, volatility, short interest 117—118
Screening factors, volatility, volume vs capitalization 117 127
Screw and bolt corp. analysis 127—135
Screw and bolt corp. selection 127
Selection of issues see Issue selection
Selling see Signals
Selling short see Shorting Signals
Services, chart 115—116 122 159
Services, data 115 121—122 128
Services, trade-by-trade tracking 121 122
Short interest see Screening factors
Short selling see Shorting
Shorting 23 73 75—76 93—96 101—107 116 119
Signals, buy, characteristics desired 78
Signals, buy, edge-band 79—82 85 90 127 132—133
Signals, buy, half-span average 99—107 108—109 109—113 125—127 132—134
Signals, buy, inverse average 109—113; 129—130
Signals, buy, mid-band 32—83 85 90
Signals, buy, nested lows 74—77 79—80 82 85 129—134
Signals, buy, trendline 78—83 85 129 13M34
Signals, buy, triangle resolution 59—61 83—85 90—92 112
Signals, cover short 93—96 101—107 108—109 112—113; Buy
Signals, cut-loss 86—90 96 132—135
Signals, hold 86—90 99—107 108—109 112—113 124—126 131—134
Signals, sell 90 91—93 95 96 99—107 111 113 134
Signals, sell short 93—96 101—109 112—113 134; Sell
Signals, trailing sell 88—91 96 131—134
Signals, wait 74—75 131—132
Sine wave see Frequency
Sinusoidal amplitude determination see Fourier analysis
Sinusoidal rate summation see Summation
Span, moving average see Moving average
Special orders see Tracking of prices
Spectral model see Model
Spectrum see Frequency
Stability see Screening factors
Stable concepts, charting 115—116 120—121 164—166
Stable concepts, displays 120—122
Stable concepts, purpose 115 120 122
Standard and Poor '500' average, comparison with DJIA 201—203
Standard Packaging, envelope analysis 45—48
Standard Packaging, synchronisation example 48—49
Stock services see Services
Summation principle 32 34 48 52—59
Summation, sinusoidal rates 204—206
Synchronization see Commonality
Tiendlines, Current Market Perspectives 159
Time distortion effect see Pitfalls
Time invested, effect on profit see Profit
time synchronization see Commonality
Time-of-turn prediction see Prediction
Timing see Prediction
Tracking of prices, brokerage displays 121 135
Tracking of prices, constraint effects 121
Tracking of prices, need 27
Tracking of prices, personal ticket, Trans-Lux 121—133
Tracking of prices, special orders 121—122
Tracking Services see Services
Trading experiment, conclusions 9
Trading experiment, industry group predictions 137—138
Trading experiment, issues 138—140
Trading experiment, market predictions 136 138
Trading experiment, objectives 135
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