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Hurst J.M. Ч Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing
Hurst J.M. Ч Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing

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Ќазвание: Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing

јвтор: Hurst J.M.


Can a $10,000 investment yield $1,000,000 in a year? In five years? If so, what is the risk involved?

These are the kinds of questions to which this work is addressed. Such fantastic results are possible in the stock market. Individual issues fluctuate widely enough and often enough to permit this and more. Techniques are presented here that put an average yield on invested capital of 10% per month, well within the realm of possibility. Compounding profits at this rate, such a yield can return $1,000,000 on a $10,000 investment within 50 months.

An actual trading experiment will be described using these principles which produced an 8.9% yield per transaction Ч every 9.7 days. Such a yield, if continued, compounds $10,000 to $1,000,000 in 15 months. If such results can be attained in the market Ч why isn't everyone doing it?

The answer is complex, but the elements are simple: effort, knowledge and psychological barriers. Any goal this worthwhile requires time and effort. Most investors, amateur and professional do not have the kind of analytical background needed to shear through rumor, opinion, and adage to get at the basis of why stock prices change. And finally, even with knowledge in hand, many investors lack training in the emotion-logic balance required for success.

Nevertheless, all of these obstacles can be overcome. It is the purpose of this book to provide you with the essentials. The results are yours if you care to apply yourself with sufficient intensity. Investment operations will be presented here in a deliberately unorthodox manner. We will turn our backs firmly on all cliches, adages, and market lore that will not withstand critical scrutiny. Where necessary, we will not hesitate to form new ones that do fit the facts.

You will find here that the big money in investing stems from the principle of "profit compounding: Ч of short-term trades. It is further shown that this potential cannot be exploited in an optimum manner without a large improvement in transaction-timing capability that cannot be achieved using tradional investment methods.

You will be exposed to: a concept of profit maximization; a model of stock price motion with prediction implications; an explanation of why chart patterns form Ч and how to use this knowledge to your profit; step-by-step methods for using the price-motion model to generate definite "wait," "buy," "hold," "sell," "sell short," "cover short," and "protect profit" signals; an explanation of why moving averages work and how to design your own for use in transaction timing; a complete trading method: how to select issues, how to analyze them for action signals, and how to improve your chances of turning and keeping a profit; the extent to which you should be concerned by chance factors, whether or not you should sell in case of war or financial crisis; the reasons why psychological considerations can affect your profits and what you can do about it; an introduction to numerical analysis and spectral analysis, upon which the results on the book are based.

язык: en

–убрика: Ёкономика и финансы/

—татус предметного указател€: √отов указатель с номерами страниц

ed2k: ed2k stats

√од издани€: 1973

 оличество страниц: 223

ƒобавлена в каталог: 26.11.2006

ќперации: ѕоложить на полку | —копировать ссылку дл€ форума | —копировать ID
ѕредметный указатель
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, 10 and 20 week      63
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, 10 week, centered      65Ч66
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, inverse, centered      109Ч112
Alloys Unlimited, trading interval effect      23Ч25
Amount of move prediction      see Prediction Amplitude
Amount of move prediction, definition      169
Amount of move prediction, determination, digital filter      44 45 46 193
Amount of move prediction, determination, Fourier analysis      173Ч175
Amount of move prediction, determination, inverse moving averages      109Ч112
Amplitude-duration, relationship      see Fourier analysis Frequency Proportionality
Amplitude-frequency, relationship      see Fourier analysis Frequency
Angular frequency      see Frequency
Brokerage displays      see Tracking of prices
Buy      see Signals
capitalization      see Screening factors
Channels      see Envelope analysis
Chart patterns      see also Trendlines Triangles
Chart patterns, "V" top and bottom      61Ч67
Chart patterns, box, coil, diamond, flag, pennant, wedge      59 67
Chart patterns, channels      52Ч53 55Ч56 see
Chart patterns, double tops and bottoms      57Ч58 67
Chart patterns, failure detection      59Ч62
Chart patterns, gaps, islands, measured moves, saucers, one-day reversals      61
Chart patterns, head and shoulders      52 54Ч56 60 67
Chart patterns, validity concept      61Ч62
Chart services      see Services
Coarse frequency structure      see Fourier analysis Filter
Comb filters      see Filter
Commonality, examples      44Ч49 201Ч203
Commonality, expression      32 34Ч35 48 201Ч203
Commonality, principle      28 23Ч33 34Ч35
Commonality, time-synchronization      32Ч33 35 48Ч49 95 161 166Ч167 201Ч203
Commonality, variations from      32Ч33 35 201Ч203
Component durations, tables of      see Nominality
Component rate-change      see Proportionality
Compounding      see Profit
Construction, envelopes      see Envelope analysis
Contracted data      see Envelope analysis
Cosinusoidal amplitude determination      see Fourier analysis
Cover short      ses Signals
Curve fitting, parabolic      see Interpolation parabolic
Curve fitting, straight line      184Ч185
Curve fitting, trigonometric      185 215Ч217
Curve fitting, usage      183 185
Cut-loss      see Signals
Cyclic model      see Model
Cyclicality, state-analysis      59Ч61 73Ч76 83Ч84 90Ч91 151Ч156
Data services      see Services
Decision influence      30 35 141Ч145 157
Digital filters      see Filters
Dominance, of components      see Variation
Duration      see Frequency period
Duration-amplitude relationship      see Proportionality
Duration-magnitude fluctuation      see Variation
Durations, components, tables of      see Norninality
Emotional cyclically      sec Pitfalls Envelope analysis
Emotional cyclically, application methods      70Ч71 73Ч77 79Ч82 85 87Ч88 89Ч90 108 112Ч113 124Ч125 128Ч130
Emotional cyclically, centerline significance      38 108
Emotional cyclically, combs      188 191Ч196
Emotional cyclically, construction techniques      37 69Ч70 85
Emotional cyclically, contracted data      40 41Ч42 45Ч48
Emotional cyclically, definition      175Ч176
Emotional cyclically, design      178Ч182
Emotional cyclically, error criteria      179Ч180
Emotional cyclically, examples      25 37Ч44 46Ч48 52 65Ч66 73Ч75 79Ч83 87Ч88 124Ч126 128Ч130 133
Emotional cyclically, expanded data      40
Emotional cyclically, frequency response      177 179 192 see
Emotional cyclically, lag time      176Ч177
Emotional cyclically, moving average      see Moving average
Emotional cyclically, nesting downward      39Ч40
Emotional cyclically, nesting upward      38Ч39
Emotional cyclically, non-realtime      91Ч93 96 124
Emotional cyclically, output      44Ч46 151Ч152 183 193 196Ч197
Emotional cyclically, weights      177Ч178
Error, filter      see Filter
Expanded data      see Envelope analysis
Failure of chart patterns      see Chart patterns
Filter, application      182Ч183
Fine frequency structure      see Fourier analysis Filter
Forseeable fundamentals      see Fundamentals
Fourier analysis, example, DJIA      175 188Ч191
Fourier analysis, implications, amplitude-frequency relationship      191
Fourier analysis, implications, course frequency structure      190
Fourier analysis, implications, fine frequency structure      190
Fourier analysis, implications, general      175Ч192
Fourier analysis, implications, line spectrum, evidence of      189Ч191 196Ч198
Fourier analysis, method, composite amplitude determination      175
Fourier analysis, method, cosinusoidal amplitude determination      173Ч175
Fourier analysis, method, data assembly      171
Fourier analysis, method, frequency determination      172Ч173
Fourier analysis, method, sequence separation      172 173Ч174
Fourier analysis, method, sinusoidal amplitude determination      174
Frequency response, centered moving average      207Ч210
Frequency response, definition      177
Frequency response, digital filter      175Ч177 179Ч181
Frequency response, inverse moving average      210Ч211
Frequency structure, stock prices      see Fourier analysis Filters
Frequency, amplitude relationship, angular      170
Frequency, amplitude relationship, course, spectral      190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, definition      170
Frequency, amplitude relationship, line nature      189Ч190 194Ч200
Frequency, amplitude relationship, modulation      33 35 37 44Ч46 57Ч60 73Ч75 92 128Ч129 152 157
Frequency, amplitude relationship, period relationship      170; see also Proportionality
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, course      189Ч190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, fine      189Ч190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, spectral      189Ч190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, response      see Frequency response sine wave
Frequency, amplitude relationship, spectrum      169Ч171 188Ч190
Frequency-amplitude relationship      see Fourier analysis Frequency
Full-span moving averages      see Moving averages
Fundamentals, foreseeable, effect      29 31 34 48 142 145Ч151 157 159Ч162
Fundamentals, gross national product      149Ч151 157
Fundamentals, historical events      see Historical events
Fundamentals, motivational      29 142Ч145
Fundamentals, risk      22 142
Fundamentals, timing aid      29 145Ч151 149Ч151 159Ч262
Fundamentals, unforseeable, effect      31 34 157
Geiergraph chart service      116
Greed      see Pitfalls
Gross national product      see Fundamentals
Group prediction      see Trading experiment
Gruen Industries      71Ч84 87Ч94
Half-span moving average      see Moving average Signals
historical events      30Ч31 34 48 145Ч154
hold      see Signals
Industry group prediction      see Trading experiment
Interpolation, parabolic method      212Ч214
Interpolation, usage      185Ч212
Inverse moving average      see Moving average Signals
Investing vs trading      see Profit
Irrational decision processes      see Decision
ISL daily stock price index      121
Issue selection, scan      115Ч116 119Ч120 127;
Issue selection, screening      116Ч119 127;
Issue selection, stable      115 120Ч121;
Issue selection, traditional      115
lag time      see Filter Moving
Least-square-error, generalized method      215Ч217
Least-square-error, parabolic data fit      212Ч214
Least-square-error, straight line data lit      183Ч185
Least-square-error, trigonometric data fit      215Ч217
Least-square-error, usage      183Ч186
Line Spectrum      see Fourier analysis
Magnitude-duration fluctuation      see Variation
Mansfield chart service      186
Market potential      see Profit
Maximization of profit      see Profit
Mid-band      see Signals
Model, cyclic sub-model      31Ч35 38 40Ч41 44Ч45 48 50 52 55 59 61 124Ч125 128 157
Model, motivational      143Ч144 157
Model, price-motion      10 29 30Ч34 50 55 57Ч59 115 119Ч120 124Ч125 128 157 159Ч160
Model, spectral      199Ч200
Modulation      see Frequency
Motivational model      see Model
Moving average, characteristics, frequency response      97Ч98 176Ч178 207Ч210
Moving average, characteristics, lag      65Ч66 67 98 112 176 208
Moving average, characteristics, smoothing      63Ч65 67 97Ч98 208Ч209
Moving average, characteristics, span      63 67 98 208
Moving average, characteristics, weights      178
Moving average, examples      63Ч66 98Ч107 125Ч130 132Ч134
Moving average, significance      62Ч63 62Ч65 67 208Ч210
Moving average, types, centered      65Ч67 207Ч210
Moving average, types, full-span      98Ч108 112Ч113 124
Moving average, types, half-span      97Ч107 112Ч113 124 125Ч127 132Ч134
Moving average, types, inverse      109Ч113 128Ч130 176 210Ч211
Moving average, types, non-centered      63
Nested lows      see Signals
Nesting      see Envelope analysis Signals
Nominally, durations; table of      33
Nominally, principle      33 35 50 128 199
Non-real-time envelope      see Envelope analysis
Numerical filters      see Filter
Outside influences      see Pitfalls
Period      sec Frequency
Persimmon effect      see Pitfalls
Phase      57 169 177 207Ч211 217
Pitfalls; emotional cycKcality      166Ч167
Pitfalls; greed      162Ч163
Pitfalls; magnitude-duration fluctuation      159
Pitfalls; outside influences      160Ч162
Pitfalls; persimmon effect      163
Pitfalls; scale effect      165Ч166
Pitfalls; time distortion      164Ч165
Pitfalls; unforseen fundamental factors      159
Potential for profitability      see Profit
Prediction, amount      93Ч94 99Ч107 109Ч112 125Ч126 131Ч132
Prediction, half-span example      97Ч10?
Prediction, potential fat      9 21 23Ч26 29Ч30 36 135
Prediction, risk      9 131Ч132 142
Prediction, time      59Ч61 70Ч71 73Ч75 79Ч85 90Ч96 109Ч112 124Ч131
Price tracking      see Tracking of
Price-motion model      see Model
Price-move prediction      see Prediction
Principle of commonality      see Commonatity
Principle of nominality      see Nominality
Principle of profit maximization      see Profit
Principle of proportonality      see Proportionality
Principle of summation      see Summation
Principle of variation      see Variation
Profit maximization model      see Profit Model
Profit preservation      see Signals
Profit, compounding      9 26 204Ч205
Profit, maximization, fluctuations, as sources      see also Transaction
Profit, maximization, interval effects      21 23Ч26
Profit, maximization, principles of      27 124 131
Profit, maximization, time invested      22 27 95
Profit, maximization, trading interval effect      see Transaction interval effect
Profit, maximization, trading vs investing      22 27
Profit, potential, action signals      36
Profit, potential, market      9 23Ч26 134Ч137 138Ч140
Profit, rate-summation effect      206
Proportionality, amplitude vs duration, chart      34
Proportionality, principle      33Ч35 50 191
Proportionality, rate constancy, relationship      191
Psychological barriers      see Pitfalls
Randomness, magnitude      30 34 48 153 157
Randomness, motivational      29 35 142Ч145
Randomness, prediction aid      29 143
Rate-change constancy, components      see Proportionality
Rate-summation effect      see Profit
Rate-summation, sinusoidal      see Summation
Resolution      see Frequency
Scale effect      see Pitfalls
Scan criteria, component status      116 127
Scan criteria, dominant cyclieality      116 127
Scan criteria, long-term breakout      119Ч120 127
Scan criteria, trend      116 127
Scan criteria, triangles      119
Scan criteria, volume      116Ч127
Screening factors, stability, earnings growth      118Ч119 127
Screening factors, stability, lating      118Ч119 127
Screening factors, stability, price-earnings ratio      118Ч119 127
Screening factors, stability, yield      118Ч119
Screening factors, summarized      119
Screening factors, volatility, capitalization      117Ч118 127
Screening factors, volatility, importance      119
Screening factors, volatility, percentage motion      117 127
Screening factors, volatility, short interest      117Ч118
Screening factors, volatility, volume vs capitalization      117 127
Screw and bolt corp. analysis      127Ч135
Screw and bolt corp. selection      127
Selection of issues      see Issue selection
Selling      see Signals
Selling short      see Shorting Signals
Services, chart      115Ч116 122 159
Services, data      115 121Ч122 128
Services, trade-by-trade tracking      121 122
Short interest      see Screening factors
Short selling      see Shorting
Shorting      23 73 75Ч76 93Ч96 101Ч107 116 119
Signals, buy, characteristics desired      78
Signals, buy, edge-band      79Ч82 85 90 127 132Ч133
Signals, buy, half-span average      99Ч107 108Ч109 109Ч113 125Ч127 132Ч134
Signals, buy, inverse average      109Ч113; 129Ч130
Signals, buy, mid-band      32Ч83 85 90
Signals, buy, nested lows      74Ч77 79Ч80 82 85 129Ч134
Signals, buy, trendline      78Ч83 85 129 13M34
Signals, buy, triangle resolution      59Ч61 83Ч85 90Ч92 112
Signals, cover short      93Ч96 101Ч107 108Ч109 112Ч113; Buy
Signals, cut-loss      86Ч90 96 132Ч135
Signals, hold      86Ч90 99Ч107 108Ч109 112Ч113 124Ч126 131Ч134
Signals, sell      90 91Ч93 95 96 99Ч107 111 113 134
Signals, sell short      93Ч96 101Ч109 112Ч113 134; Sell
Signals, trailing sell      88Ч91 96 131Ч134
Signals, wait      74Ч75 131Ч132
Sine wave      see Frequency
Sinusoidal amplitude determination      see Fourier analysis
Sinusoidal rate summation      see Summation
Span, moving average      see Moving average
Special orders      see Tracking of prices
Spectral model      see Model
Spectrum      see Frequency
Stability      see Screening factors
Stable concepts, charting      115Ч116 120Ч121 164Ч166
Stable concepts, displays      120Ч122
Stable concepts, purpose      115 120 122
Standard and Poor '500' average, comparison with DJIA      201Ч203
Standard Packaging, envelope analysis      45Ч48
Standard Packaging, synchronisation example      48Ч49
Stock services      see Services
Summation principle      32 34 48 52Ч59
Summation, sinusoidal rates      204Ч206
Synchronization      see Commonality
Tiendlines, Current Market Perspectives      159
Time distortion effect      see Pitfalls
Time invested, effect on profit      see Profit
time synchronization      see Commonality
Time-of-turn prediction      see Prediction
Timing      see Prediction
Tracking of prices, brokerage displays      121 135
Tracking of prices, constraint effects      121
Tracking of prices, need      27
Tracking of prices, personal ticket, Trans-Lux      121Ч133
Tracking of prices, special orders      121Ч122
Tracking Services      see Services
Trading experiment, conclusions      9
Trading experiment, industry group predictions      137Ч138
Trading experiment, issues      138Ч140
Trading experiment, market predictions      136 138
Trading experiment, objectives      135
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