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Hurst J.M. — Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing
Hurst J.M. — Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing



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Íàçâàíèå: Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing

Àâòîð: Hurst J.M.

Àííîòàöèÿ:

Can a $10,000 investment yield $1,000,000 in a year? In five years? If so, what is the risk involved?

These are the kinds of questions to which this work is addressed. Such fantastic results are possible in the stock market. Individual issues fluctuate widely enough and often enough to permit this and more. Techniques are presented here that put an average yield on invested capital of 10% per month, well within the realm of possibility. Compounding profits at this rate, such a yield can return $1,000,000 on a $10,000 investment within 50 months.

An actual trading experiment will be described using these principles which produced an 8.9% yield per transaction — every 9.7 days. Such a yield, if continued, compounds $10,000 to $1,000,000 in 15 months. If such results can be attained in the market — why isn't everyone doing it?

The answer is complex, but the elements are simple: effort, knowledge and psychological barriers. Any goal this worthwhile requires time and effort. Most investors, amateur and professional do not have the kind of analytical background needed to shear through rumor, opinion, and adage to get at the basis of why stock prices change. And finally, even with knowledge in hand, many investors lack training in the emotion-logic balance required for success.

Nevertheless, all of these obstacles can be overcome. It is the purpose of this book to provide you with the essentials. The results are yours if you care to apply yourself with sufficient intensity. Investment operations will be presented here in a deliberately unorthodox manner. We will turn our backs firmly on all cliches, adages, and market lore that will not withstand critical scrutiny. Where necessary, we will not hesitate to form new ones that do fit the facts.

You will find here that the big money in investing stems from the principle of "profit compounding: — of short-term trades. It is further shown that this potential cannot be exploited in an optimum manner without a large improvement in transaction-timing capability that cannot be achieved using tradional investment methods.

You will be exposed to: a concept of profit maximization; a model of stock price motion with prediction implications; an explanation of why chart patterns form — and how to use this knowledge to your profit; step-by-step methods for using the price-motion model to generate definite "wait," "buy," "hold," "sell," "sell short," "cover short," and "protect profit" signals; an explanation of why moving averages work and how to design your own for use in transaction timing; a complete trading method: how to select issues, how to analyze them for action signals, and how to improve your chances of turning and keeping a profit; the extent to which you should be concerned by chance factors, whether or not you should sell in case of war or financial crisis; the reasons why psychological considerations can affect your profits and what you can do about it; an introduction to numerical analysis and spectral analysis, upon which the results on the book are based.


ßçûê: en

Ðóáðèêà: Ýêîíîìèêà è ôèíàíñû/

Ñòàòóñ ïðåäìåòíîãî óêàçàòåëÿ: Ãîòîâ óêàçàòåëü ñ íîìåðàìè ñòðàíèö

ed2k: ed2k stats

Ãîä èçäàíèÿ: 1973

Êîëè÷åñòâî ñòðàíèö: 223

Äîáàâëåíà â êàòàëîã: 26.11.2006

Îïåðàöèè: Ïîëîæèòü íà ïîëêó | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ññûëêó äëÿ ôîðóìà | Ñêîïèðîâàòü ID
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Ïðåäìåòíûé óêàçàòåëü
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, 10 and 20 week      63
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, 10 week, centered      65—66
Alloys Unlimited, moving average, applications, inverse, centered      109—112
Alloys Unlimited, trading interval effect      23—25
Amount of move prediction      see Prediction Amplitude
Amount of move prediction, definition      169
Amount of move prediction, determination, digital filter      44 45 46 193
Amount of move prediction, determination, Fourier analysis      173—175
Amount of move prediction, determination, inverse moving averages      109—112
Amplitude-duration, relationship      see Fourier analysis Frequency Proportionality
Amplitude-frequency, relationship      see Fourier analysis Frequency
Angular frequency      see Frequency
Brokerage displays      see Tracking of prices
Buy      see Signals
capitalization      see Screening factors
Channels      see Envelope analysis
Chart patterns      see also Trendlines Triangles
Chart patterns, "V" top and bottom      61—67
Chart patterns, box, coil, diamond, flag, pennant, wedge      59 67
Chart patterns, channels      52—53 55—56 see
Chart patterns, double tops and bottoms      57—58 67
Chart patterns, failure detection      59—62
Chart patterns, gaps, islands, measured moves, saucers, one-day reversals      61
Chart patterns, head and shoulders      52 54—56 60 67
Chart patterns, validity concept      61—62
Chart services      see Services
Coarse frequency structure      see Fourier analysis Filter
Comb filters      see Filter
Commonality, examples      44—49 201—203
Commonality, expression      32 34—35 48 201—203
Commonality, principle      28 23—33 34—35
Commonality, time-synchronization      32—33 35 48—49 95 161 166—167 201—203
Commonality, variations from      32—33 35 201—203
Component durations, tables of      see Nominality
Component rate-change      see Proportionality
Compounding      see Profit
Construction, envelopes      see Envelope analysis
Contracted data      see Envelope analysis
Cosinusoidal amplitude determination      see Fourier analysis
Cover short      ses Signals
Curve fitting, parabolic      see Interpolation parabolic
Curve fitting, straight line      184—185
Curve fitting, trigonometric      185 215—217
Curve fitting, usage      183 185
Cut-loss      see Signals
Cyclic model      see Model
Cyclicality, state-analysis      59—61 73—76 83—84 90—91 151—156
Data services      see Services
Decision influence      30 35 141—145 157
Digital filters      see Filters
Dominance, of components      see Variation
Duration      see Frequency period
Duration-amplitude relationship      see Proportionality
Duration-magnitude fluctuation      see Variation
Durations, components, tables of      see Norninality
Emotional cyclically      sec Pitfalls Envelope analysis
Emotional cyclically, application methods      70—71 73—77 79—82 85 87—88 89—90 108 112—113 124—125 128—130
Emotional cyclically, centerline significance      38 108
Emotional cyclically, combs      188 191—196
Emotional cyclically, construction techniques      37 69—70 85
Emotional cyclically, contracted data      40 41—42 45—48
Emotional cyclically, definition      175—176
Emotional cyclically, design      178—182
Emotional cyclically, error criteria      179—180
Emotional cyclically, examples      25 37—44 46—48 52 65—66 73—75 79—83 87—88 124—126 128—130 133
Emotional cyclically, expanded data      40
Emotional cyclically, frequency response      177 179 192 see
Emotional cyclically, lag time      176—177
Emotional cyclically, moving average      see Moving average
Emotional cyclically, nesting downward      39—40
Emotional cyclically, nesting upward      38—39
Emotional cyclically, non-realtime      91—93 96 124
Emotional cyclically, output      44—46 151—152 183 193 196—197
Emotional cyclically, weights      177—178
Error, filter      see Filter
Expanded data      see Envelope analysis
Failure of chart patterns      see Chart patterns
Filter, application      182—183
Fine frequency structure      see Fourier analysis Filter
Forseeable fundamentals      see Fundamentals
Fourier analysis, example, DJIA      175 188—191
Fourier analysis, implications, amplitude-frequency relationship      191
Fourier analysis, implications, course frequency structure      190
Fourier analysis, implications, fine frequency structure      190
Fourier analysis, implications, general      175—192
Fourier analysis, implications, line spectrum, evidence of      189—191 196—198
Fourier analysis, method, composite amplitude determination      175
Fourier analysis, method, cosinusoidal amplitude determination      173—175
Fourier analysis, method, data assembly      171
Fourier analysis, method, frequency determination      172—173
Fourier analysis, method, sequence separation      172 173—174
Fourier analysis, method, sinusoidal amplitude determination      174
Frequency response, centered moving average      207—210
Frequency response, definition      177
Frequency response, digital filter      175—177 179—181
Frequency response, inverse moving average      210—211
Frequency structure, stock prices      see Fourier analysis Filters
Frequency, amplitude relationship, angular      170
Frequency, amplitude relationship, course, spectral      190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, definition      170
Frequency, amplitude relationship, line nature      189—190 194—200
Frequency, amplitude relationship, modulation      33 35 37 44—46 57—60 73—75 92 128—129 152 157
Frequency, amplitude relationship, period relationship      170; see also Proportionality
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, course      189—190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, fine      189—190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, resolution, spectral      189—190
Frequency, amplitude relationship, response      see Frequency response sine wave
Frequency, amplitude relationship, spectrum      169—171 188—190
Frequency-amplitude relationship      see Fourier analysis Frequency
Full-span moving averages      see Moving averages
Fundamentals, foreseeable, effect      29 31 34 48 142 145—151 157 159—162
Fundamentals, gross national product      149—151 157
Fundamentals, historical events      see Historical events
Fundamentals, motivational      29 142—145
Fundamentals, risk      22 142
Fundamentals, timing aid      29 145—151 149—151 159—262
Fundamentals, unforseeable, effect      31 34 157
Geiergraph chart service      116
Greed      see Pitfalls
Gross national product      see Fundamentals
Group prediction      see Trading experiment
Gruen Industries      71—84 87—94
Half-span moving average      see Moving average Signals
historical events      30—31 34 48 145—154
hold      see Signals
Industry group prediction      see Trading experiment
Interpolation, parabolic method      212—214
Interpolation, usage      185—212
Inverse moving average      see Moving average Signals
Investing vs trading      see Profit
Irrational decision processes      see Decision
ISL daily stock price index      121
Issue selection, scan      115—116 119—120 127;
Issue selection, screening      116—119 127;
Issue selection, stable      115 120—121;
Issue selection, traditional      115
lag time      see Filter Moving
Least-square-error, generalized method      215—217
Least-square-error, parabolic data fit      212—214
Least-square-error, straight line data lit      183—185
Least-square-error, trigonometric data fit      215—217
Least-square-error, usage      183—186
Line Spectrum      see Fourier analysis
Magnitude-duration fluctuation      see Variation
Mansfield chart service      186
Market potential      see Profit
Maximization of profit      see Profit
Mid-band      see Signals
Model, cyclic sub-model      31—35 38 40—41 44—45 48 50 52 55 59 61 124—125 128 157
Model, motivational      143—144 157
Model, price-motion      10 29 30—34 50 55 57—59 115 119—120 124—125 128 157 159—160
Model, spectral      199—200
Modulation      see Frequency
Motivational model      see Model
Moving average, characteristics, frequency response      97—98 176—178 207—210
Moving average, characteristics, lag      65—66 67 98 112 176 208
Moving average, characteristics, smoothing      63—65 67 97—98 208—209
Moving average, characteristics, span      63 67 98 208
Moving average, characteristics, weights      178
Moving average, examples      63—66 98—107 125—130 132—134
Moving average, significance      62—63 62—65 67 208—210
Moving average, types, centered      65—67 207—210
Moving average, types, full-span      98—108 112—113 124
Moving average, types, half-span      97—107 112—113 124 125—127 132—134
Moving average, types, inverse      109—113 128—130 176 210—211
Moving average, types, non-centered      63
Nested lows      see Signals
Nesting      see Envelope analysis Signals
Nominally, durations; table of      33
Nominally, principle      33 35 50 128 199
Non-real-time envelope      see Envelope analysis
Numerical filters      see Filter
Outside influences      see Pitfalls
Period      sec Frequency
Persimmon effect      see Pitfalls
Phase      57 169 177 207—211 217
Pitfalls; emotional cycKcality      166—167
Pitfalls; greed      162—163
Pitfalls; magnitude-duration fluctuation      159
Pitfalls; outside influences      160—162
Pitfalls; persimmon effect      163
Pitfalls; scale effect      165—166
Pitfalls; time distortion      164—165
Pitfalls; unforseen fundamental factors      159
Potential for profitability      see Profit
Prediction, amount      93—94 99—107 109—112 125—126 131—132
Prediction, half-span example      97—10?
Prediction, potential fat      9 21 23—26 29—30 36 135
Prediction, risk      9 131—132 142
Prediction, time      59—61 70—71 73—75 79—85 90—96 109—112 124—131
Price tracking      see Tracking of
Price-motion model      see Model
Price-move prediction      see Prediction
Principle of commonality      see Commonatity
Principle of nominality      see Nominality
Principle of profit maximization      see Profit
Principle of proportonality      see Proportionality
Principle of summation      see Summation
Principle of variation      see Variation
Profit maximization model      see Profit Model
Profit preservation      see Signals
Profit, compounding      9 26 204—205
Profit, maximization, fluctuations, as sources      see also Transaction
Profit, maximization, interval effects      21 23—26
Profit, maximization, principles of      27 124 131
Profit, maximization, time invested      22 27 95
Profit, maximization, trading interval effect      see Transaction interval effect
Profit, maximization, trading vs investing      22 27
Profit, potential, action signals      36
Profit, potential, market      9 23—26 134—137 138—140
Profit, rate-summation effect      206
Proportionality, amplitude vs duration, chart      34
Proportionality, principle      33—35 50 191
Proportionality, rate constancy, relationship      191
Psychological barriers      see Pitfalls
Randomness, magnitude      30 34 48 153 157
Randomness, motivational      29 35 142—145
Randomness, prediction aid      29 143
Rate-change constancy, components      see Proportionality
Rate-summation effect      see Profit
Rate-summation, sinusoidal      see Summation
Resolution      see Frequency
Scale effect      see Pitfalls
Scan criteria, component status      116 127
Scan criteria, dominant cyclieality      116 127
Scan criteria, long-term breakout      119—120 127
Scan criteria, trend      116 127
Scan criteria, triangles      119
Scan criteria, volume      116—127
Screening factors, stability, earnings growth      118—119 127
Screening factors, stability, lating      118—119 127
Screening factors, stability, price-earnings ratio      118—119 127
Screening factors, stability, yield      118—119
Screening factors, summarized      119
Screening factors, volatility, capitalization      117—118 127
Screening factors, volatility, importance      119
Screening factors, volatility, percentage motion      117 127
Screening factors, volatility, short interest      117—118
Screening factors, volatility, volume vs capitalization      117 127
Screw and bolt corp. analysis      127—135
Screw and bolt corp. selection      127
Selection of issues      see Issue selection
Selling      see Signals
Selling short      see Shorting Signals
Services, chart      115—116 122 159
Services, data      115 121—122 128
Services, trade-by-trade tracking      121 122
Short interest      see Screening factors
Short selling      see Shorting
Shorting      23 73 75—76 93—96 101—107 116 119
Signals, buy, characteristics desired      78
Signals, buy, edge-band      79—82 85 90 127 132—133
Signals, buy, half-span average      99—107 108—109 109—113 125—127 132—134
Signals, buy, inverse average      109—113; 129—130
Signals, buy, mid-band      32—83 85 90
Signals, buy, nested lows      74—77 79—80 82 85 129—134
Signals, buy, trendline      78—83 85 129 13M34
Signals, buy, triangle resolution      59—61 83—85 90—92 112
Signals, cover short      93—96 101—107 108—109 112—113; Buy
Signals, cut-loss      86—90 96 132—135
Signals, hold      86—90 99—107 108—109 112—113 124—126 131—134
Signals, sell      90 91—93 95 96 99—107 111 113 134
Signals, sell short      93—96 101—109 112—113 134; Sell
Signals, trailing sell      88—91 96 131—134
Signals, wait      74—75 131—132
Sine wave      see Frequency
Sinusoidal amplitude determination      see Fourier analysis
Sinusoidal rate summation      see Summation
Span, moving average      see Moving average
Special orders      see Tracking of prices
Spectral model      see Model
Spectrum      see Frequency
Stability      see Screening factors
Stable concepts, charting      115—116 120—121 164—166
Stable concepts, displays      120—122
Stable concepts, purpose      115 120 122
Standard and Poor '500' average, comparison with DJIA      201—203
Standard Packaging, envelope analysis      45—48
Standard Packaging, synchronisation example      48—49
Stock services      see Services
Summation principle      32 34 48 52—59
Summation, sinusoidal rates      204—206
Synchronization      see Commonality
Tiendlines, Current Market Perspectives      159
Time distortion effect      see Pitfalls
Time invested, effect on profit      see Profit
time synchronization      see Commonality
Time-of-turn prediction      see Prediction
Timing      see Prediction
Tracking of prices, brokerage displays      121 135
Tracking of prices, constraint effects      121
Tracking of prices, need      27
Tracking of prices, personal ticket, Trans-Lux      121—133
Tracking of prices, special orders      121—122
Tracking Services      see Services
Trading experiment, conclusions      9
Trading experiment, industry group predictions      137—138
Trading experiment, issues      138—140
Trading experiment, market predictions      136 138
Trading experiment, objectives      135
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