Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a variety of “new”
and often non-military threats were moved onto the security political
agendas of many countries. Even though the label “new” was not justifi ed
in most cases – social and economic inequalities, terrorism, or ethnic
confl icts, to name just a few aspects of the “new” agendas, are certainly not
creations of the post-Cold War world, though they might have increased
in quantity and scale – many of these threats are distinctly diff erent from
Cold War security threats. Th e main diff erence is an unprecedented quality
of uncertainty about them. Uncertainty surrounds the identity and goals
of potential adversaries, their capabilities and motivations, the timeframe
within which the threat is likely to arise, and the contingencies that might
be imposed on the state. Th is uncertainty can be seen as consisting in the
entire set of beliefs or doubts that stems from limited knowledge of the past
and present (lack of knowledge) and the ability to predict future events,
outcomes, and consequences (uncertainty due to variability).