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Название: Encyclopaedia of Biological Disaster Management. Vol. 5
Авторы: Singh R.K., Swarnim K.
In the first part of the book we will outline and analyse space of possibilities in which global catastrophe may occur. Space of possibilities - is the term which is going back to the book Science fiction and futurology by polish author Stanislav Lem. This view is opposed to representations by separate scenarios and possibilities. Lem made following comparisons for the explanation of this term: though the quantity of possible games in chess is infinite, the description of game rules and main principles of strategy occupies final volume and is understandable. As an example could be space of possibilities of the “Cold war” which has been set by appearance of certain technology and in which those or other scenarios of standoff were developed: the Caribbean crisis, arms race etc. The description of scenarios is practically useless, as though each one can be very intriguing, the probability of its realisation is very small. The more concrete details is in the scenario, the less it is probable - though visibility of credibility from it increases. But the analysis of separate scenarios gives us a cut of space of possibilities and consequently it is useful.